Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi FC Statistics & Analysis

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

• League: Thai League 1
• Fixture: Kanchanaburi vs Chonburi FC
• Kickoff: 2026-05-02 12:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 36.5% · Draw 32.5% · Away 31.0%
• xG (showing): Kanchanaburi 1.16 — Chonburi FC 1.05 (total xG ≈ 2.21)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
• Model: 62.0% · Implied: 46.9% · Probability edge: +15.1 pts · Est. EV: +27.1%
• BTTS (model): Yes 46.4% · No 53.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

The engine’s headline primary is: Under 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

Is the most likely correct score a good bet?

Usually no as a standalone bet: the “most likely” scoreline is still a low absolute probability tail event (often single digits, sometimes low teens). Use it as context; keep any correct-score stake in the “fun / small” bucket.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Who has the edge in the match-winner market?

Use the 1X2 model percentages in the summary and the 1X2 market card: the side with the highest model % is the model lean, but check EV — a lean can still be -EV after prices.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Narrative: Template sentence library with fixture-stable selection (no per-request LLM for this block).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 01, 2026 (UTC)