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Mỗi hàng so sánh mô hình trước trận đấu với kết quả toàn thời gian.
- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 (3 mục tiêu) ✖ Không đúng
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Không Không ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Orlando City Orlando City ✔ Chính xác
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Không đúng
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Orlando City win · Orlando City 3–0 Toronto FC
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.262,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.386,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.614,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2602,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.82,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.84,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.09,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.78,
"home_win_prob": 0.4779,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.59,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.41
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Orlando City or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Orlando City"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Orlando City",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0293,
"edge_gap": 0.2165,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5074,
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.2,
"draw": 26.0,
"home": 47.8
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 1.91
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.91
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.87
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"odd": 1.87
},
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"odd": 1.86
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 1.85
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.85
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.84
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.91,
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"display_market": "Orlando City Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.97,
"market_odds": 1.85,
"model_odds": 2.09,
"overround": 6.4,
"prob_edge": -4.5,
"value_pct": -8.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 83.1,
"no_prob": 38.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 61.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 61.4
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"correct_score": {
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"home_expected": 1.78,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Orlando City or Draw",
"prob": 73.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Orlando City or Toronto FC",
"prob": 74.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Toronto FC",
"prob": 52.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Orlando City or Toronto FC",
"pick_prob": 74.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.2,
"draw_pct": 26.0,
"home_pct": 47.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Orlando City"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.06,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.06,
"under_prob": 41.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"edge": 11.8,
"implied_prob": 23.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 26.0,
"odds": 4.3
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.4,
"ev": -0.037,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.107,
"model_prob_pct": 10.7,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.78,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0333,
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"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6768,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.631
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"p_final": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1849,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0302,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3836,
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"edge": 0.0333,
"ev": 0.0302,
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"model_prob": 0.41,
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"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1504,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.0,
"text": "-15.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.23,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.0,
"text": "+23.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.23,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 59.0,
"sort_key": 10357.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 41.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0215,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.3329,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.386,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"model_prob": 0.386,
"p_final": 0.3545
},
"p_final": 0.3545,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.075,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0128,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.6671,
"model_prob": 0.614,
"p_final": 0.6374
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1117,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.2,
"text": "+11.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1281,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.8,
"text": "-12.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no_prob": 38.6,
"sort_key": 10100.53,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 61.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0935,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0438,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.4,
"text": "-4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Orlando City",
"sort_key": 1789.05,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"alert_team": "Orlando City",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Orlando City",
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"model_team": "Orlando City",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.23,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.23,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando City at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando City as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.78,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.78,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.78 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +32%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"steam_team": "Orlando City",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.23,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.23,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando City at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando City as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando City 1.78 xG vs Toronto FC 1.28 \u2192 Orlando City 47.8%",
"Market Drift: Orlando City odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando City, but the market has moved away from Orlando City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 47.79,
"label": "Orlando City",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.02,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 26.2,
"label": "Toronto FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.75,
"fair_prob": 59.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.75,
"fair_prob": 41.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.54,
"fair_prob": 61.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.94,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.54,
"fair_prob": 38.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.06,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Orlando City",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.8,
"model_prob_pct": 47.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 47,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Orlando City 1.78 xG vs Toronto FC 1.28 \u2192 Orlando City 47.8%",
"Market Drift: Orlando City odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Orlando City, but the market has moved away from Orlando City.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Orlando City odds lengthened \u2191 +2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 21.6 pp (at 47.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 21.6,
"max_prob_pct": 47.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 47.79,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Orlando City",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.02,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.2,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Toronto FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Orlando City (47.8%).",
"Orlando City odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.8%, 6/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "6/12",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Orlando City (swing 1.91 \u2192 1.75 \u2192 1.85) \u2014 net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.85",
"1.83",
"1.80"
],
"display": "1.91 \u2192 1.75 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 102h",
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Orlando City while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Orlando City",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/12",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Orlando City",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Orlando City",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "toronto-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Toronto FC",
"away_team_id": 1601,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1601.webp",
"away_team_name": "Toronto FC",
"away_team_public_id": "4M1oTDMivuXfc1",
"away_team_slug": "toronto-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490469,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Orlando City",
"home_team_id": 1598,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1598.webp",
"home_team_name": "Orlando City",
"home_team_public_id": "1ilD1lAswqpafC",
"home_team_slug": "orlando-city-sc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "orlando-city-sc",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 23:30:00",
"public_id": "5y29TKkvh1nN4a",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Orlando",
"venue_name": "Exploria Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2993,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0005,
"ev": -0.0622,
"implied_prob": 0.26,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.26,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.506
},
"model_prob": 0.2616,
"p_final": 0.2605
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1921,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0438,
"implied_prob": 0.234,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.26,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.506
},
"model_prob": 0.2602,
"p_final": 0.2391
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.575,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0935,
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.26,
"draw": 0.234,
"home": 0.506
},
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"p_final": 0.49
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0052,
"ev": 0.0203,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2616
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.3,
"edge": 0.0277,
"ev": 0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.2326,
"model_prob": 0.2602
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0454,
"ev": -0.0867,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.4782
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4059,
"alpha_yes": 0.5581,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.42,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0554,
"edge_yes": -0.0554,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1117,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0128,
"ev_yes": -0.1281,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1139,
"implied_no": 0.3306,
"implied_yes": 0.6694,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"model_prob": 0.386,
"p_final": 0.3545
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.6671,
"model_prob": 0.614,
"p_final": 0.6374
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.3545,
"p_final_yes": 0.6374,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5274,
"alpha_under": 0.3836,
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 3.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.38,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.89,
"edge_over": -0.0875,
"edge_under": 0.0875,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1504,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1292,
"ev_under": 0.23,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0302,
"implied_over": 0.6775,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6768,
"implied_under": 0.3225,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3232,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5274,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6768,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.631
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3836,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0333,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.3232,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.3565
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.631,
"p_final_under": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.23,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.23,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.23,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.23,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.23,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 25,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Orlando City at 47.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Orlando City as the value side (47.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Orlando City",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "25 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"Decision strength: 4.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Orlando City, but the model still strongly favours Orlando City.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.9,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.5"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.5
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.614,
"draw_prob": 0.2602,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4782,
"over_prob": 0.59,
"total_xg": 3.06,
"under_prob": 0.41,
"xg_diff": 0.5
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.016,
"ev": -0.0935,
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Orlando City"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0215,
"market_prob": 0.3329,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.386,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4059,
"best_odd": 2.785,
"edge": 0.0215,
"ev": -0.0128,
"implied_prob": 0.3329,
"model_prob": 0.386,
"p_final": 0.3545
},
"p_final": 0.3545,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0128,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5581,
"best_odd": 1.39,
"edge": -0.0296,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.6671,
"model_prob": 0.614,
"p_final": 0.6374
}
},
"edge": 0.0554,
"ev": 0.1117,
"implied_prob": 0.3306,
"model_prob": 0.386,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3836,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0333,
"market_prob": 0.3232,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5274,
"best_odd": 1.38,
"edge": -0.0458,
"ev": -0.1292,
"implied_prob": 0.6768,
"model_prob": 0.59,
"p_final": 0.631
},
"p_final": 0.3565,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0302,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3836,
"best_odd": 2.89,
"edge": 0.0333,
"ev": 0.0302,
"implied_prob": 0.3232,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"p_final": 0.3565
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0875,
"ev": 0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.3225,
"model_prob": 0.41,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1490469,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.23,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2616,
"draw": 0.2602,
"home": 0.4782
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Toronto FC",
"home": "Orlando City"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089585,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.23,
"implied_prob": 0.3225,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.41,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0935,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.506,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4782,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490469,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T20:07:07.144959+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Khám phá thêm nội dung dự đoán
Nhận dự đoán cao cấp cho Orlando City & Toronto FC!
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Đăng ký ngay
Major League Soccer — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 45 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 36 |
| 8 | LA Galaxy | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 9 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 59 | 26 | +33 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 27 | 50 | 42 | +8 | 47 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 45 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 32 |
| 5 | San Diego | 27 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 43 | 30 | +13 | 41 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 32 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 27 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 36 |
| 11 | LA Galaxy | 28 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 27 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 31 |
| 13 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 44 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 31 | 63 | -32 | 21 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 50 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 27 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 27 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United | 27 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 27 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 32 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 45 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 27 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 27 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 47 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 27 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 31 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 26 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 35 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 27 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 32 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 21 |
| 15 | LA Galaxy | 28 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 36 |
