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- Chợ Dự đoán Kết quả kết quả
- Tài / Xỉu 2.5 Tài 2.5 Tài 2.5 (4 mục tiêu) ✔ Chính xác
- Cả Hai Đội Đều Ghi Bàn BTTS Có Có ✔ Chính xác
- 1X2 Philadelphia Union Vẽ tranh ✖ Không đúng
- Thông tin tỷ số chính xác 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 2-2 ✔ Chính xác
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Philadelphia Union 2–2 Inter Miami
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3769451b037e7ffbd3affbbd6c51cc758667ddf7a7ec8c850998740268c4c82c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.51,
"away_win_prob": 0.249,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.295,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.705,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2239,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.02,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.47,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.9,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.22,
"home_win_prob": 0.5271,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.72,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.28
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Inter Miami and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Philadelphia Union",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Inter Miami"
},
"away_xg": 1.51,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"confidence": 52.7,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Philadelphia Union",
"edge": 0.1149,
"edge_gap": 0.2779,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.412,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 24.9,
"draw": 22.4,
"home": 52.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.35
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.35,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Philadelphia Union Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.43,
"market_odds": 2.35,
"model_odds": 1.9,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 10.1,
"value_pct": 23.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 77.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 89.1,
"no_prob": 29.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 70.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 70.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.51,
"home_expected": 2.22,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Philadelphia Union or Draw",
"prob": 75.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Philadelphia Union or Inter Miami",
"prob": 77.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Inter Miami",
"prob": 47.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Philadelphia Union or Inter Miami",
"pick_prob": 77.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 24.9,
"draw_pct": 22.4,
"home_pct": 52.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.73,
"away_avg_scored": 2.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 72.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 72.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.73,
"under_prob": 28.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 23.8,
"implied_prob": 42.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Philadelphia Union Win",
"model_prob": 52.7,
"odds": 2.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Inter Miami",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.54,
"draw": 22.26,
"home": 41.2
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-19 23:29:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-19 23:00:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Philadelphia Union",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.2,
"gap_pp": 11.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 52.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.26,
"gap_pp": 0.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.54,
"gap_pp": -11.63,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 24.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 70.5,
"gap_pp": 1.5,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 72.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.5,
"gap_pp": -1.5,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 28.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.2,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.2,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.35,
"early": 4.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 36.54,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.36,
"early": 1.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 70.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 70.5,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.25,
"early": 3.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.5,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.5,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.6,
"ev": -0.0655,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
"market_odds": 10.5,
"market_prob": 0.0952,
"market_prob_pct": 9.5,
"model_prob": 0.089,
"model_prob_pct": 8.9,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.22,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 2.5,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Philadelphia Union",
"edge": 12.7,
"ev": 31.6,
"probability": 52.7
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0688,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0688,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.527,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"sort_key": 10211.92,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 72.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 28.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 29.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 70.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 806.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"alert_team": "Inter Miami",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.64,
"hero_label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 41.2,
"market_team": "Philadelphia Union",
"model_prob_pct": 52.7,
"model_team": "Philadelphia Union",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2383,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 52.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (52.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490391 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.71"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.71
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6923076923076923,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (64%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 61,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.64,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.51,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.22,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.22,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.22 \u00b7 Away xG 1.51 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +64%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"steam_team": "Inter Miami",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2383,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 52.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (52.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490391 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.71"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.71
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Philadelphia Union 2.22 xG vs Inter Miami 1.51 \u2192 Philadelphia Union 52.7%",
"Market: Philadelphia Union ~41.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Inter Miami odds \u2191 +10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Philadelphia Union projects stronger on expected goals (+0.71 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob": 52.71,
"label": "Philadelphia Union",
"market_prob": 41.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.13,
"fair_prob": 22.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob": 24.9,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob": 36.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 72.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 70.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.9,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 36.54,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Inter Miami"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Inter Miami\u0027s win probability at 36.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 24.9%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.5,
"model_prob_pct": 52.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 61,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Philadelphia Union \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 48,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Philadelphia Union 2.22 xG vs Inter Miami 1.51 \u2192 Philadelphia Union 52.7%",
"Market: Philadelphia Union ~41.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Inter Miami odds \u2191 +10.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Philadelphia Union projects stronger on expected goals (+0.71 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.64,
"hero_label": "Inter Miami",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Inter Miami odds lengthened \u2191 +10.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Inter Miami than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Inter Miami than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Inter Miami more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Inter Miami (\u2191 +10.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.64,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 27.8 pp (at 52.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 27.8,
"max_prob_pct": 52.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Inter Miami",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Inter Miami higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 11.51,
"edge_pp": 11.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Philadelphia Union",
"market_prob_pct": 41.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.13,
"edge_pp": 0.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.64,
"edge_pp": -11.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 36.54,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Philadelphia Union (41.2%).",
"Inter Miami odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.2%, 9/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Philadelphia Union \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
"closing_odds": 2.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
"entry_odds": 2.65,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Inter Miami (10.2%, 9/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.58",
"2.45"
],
"display": "2.73 \u2192 2.30 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"pick_team": "Inter Miami",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.73"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.45,
2.65,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.45,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Inter Miami",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Inter Miami",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.2%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Inter Miami",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Inter Miami",
"away_team_id": 9568,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9568.webp",
"away_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"away_team_public_id": "0DUhhZicSUHRl8",
"away_team_slug": "inter-miami",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490391,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Philadelphia Union",
"home_team_id": 1599,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1599.webp",
"home_team_name": "Philadelphia Union",
"home_team_public_id": "45qkiUfMflY8LX",
"home_team_slug": "philadelphia-union",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_public_id": "2mZNhylXlUFt9l",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-19 23:30:00",
"public_id": "3UuYziOwIej0ob",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Philadelphia",
"venue_name": "Subaru Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3715,
"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1462,
"implied_prob": 0.3654,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3654,
"draw": 0.2226,
"home": 0.412
},
"model_prob": 0.2491,
"p_final": 0.3222
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1996,
"best_odd": 4.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0305,
"implied_prob": 0.2226,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3654,
"draw": 0.2226,
"home": 0.412
},
"model_prob": 0.224,
"p_final": 0.2229
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3724,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3654,
"draw": 0.2226,
"home": 0.412
},
"model_prob": 0.527,
"p_final": 0.4548
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.65,
"edge": -0.1283,
"ev": -0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3774,
"model_prob": 0.2491
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.35,
"edge": -0.0059,
"ev": -0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.2299,
"model_prob": 0.224
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": 0.1014,
"ev": 0.2383,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.527
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.73,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2383,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0688,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2383,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 48,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Philadelphia Union at 52.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Philadelphia Union as the value side (52.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 11.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Philadelphia Union",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Philadelphia Union \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +24% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490391 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "61 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "48 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Philadelphia Union).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +24% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 61,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 64.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 64%",
"Clear xG separation gap=0.71"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.71
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.705,
"draw_prob": 0.224,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.527,
"over_prob": 0.72,
"total_xg": 3.73,
"under_prob": 0.28,
"xg_diff": 0.71
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0428,
"ev": 0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.705,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.72,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490391,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0688,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2491,
"draw": 0.224,
"home": 0.527
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Inter Miami",
"home": "Philadelphia Union"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.029006,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0688,
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Philadelphia Union",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0688,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.35,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.412,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"raw_edge_display": "+11.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.425531914893617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2385,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+23.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490391,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-19T23:29:07.053494+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Major League Soccer — Bảng xếp hạng
| # | Đội | Tr | T | H | B | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 35 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 10 | LA Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| # | Đội | Tr | BT | BB | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 25 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
| 6 | San Diego | 25 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 40 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 25 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 35 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 25 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 26 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 15 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 |
| # | Đội | Tr | xG | xGC | +/- | Đ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 13.2 | 5.8 | +7.4 | 46 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 25 | 13.7 | 6.9 | +6.8 | 41 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11.1 | 6.5 | +4.6 | 35 |
| 4 | Minnesota United | 25 | 15.9 | 11.7 | +4.2 | 29 |
| 5 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 17.4 | 13.4 | +4.0 | 32 |
| 6 | San Diego | 25 | 12.9 | 10.5 | +2.4 | 30 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 10.4 | 8.2 | +2.2 | 43 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12.5 | 12.7 | -0.2 | 41 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 14.1 | 14.6 | -0.5 | 40 |
| 10 | Austin FC | 25 | 9.2 | 11.9 | -2.7 | 29 |
| 11 | FC Dallas | 25 | 8.6 | 11.4 | -2.8 | 43 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 12.7 | 16.1 | -3.4 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 8.8 | 13.3 | -4.5 | 28 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 8.8 | 17.6 | -8.8 | 18 |
| 15 | LA Galaxy | 26 | 9.6 | 19.3 | -9.7 | 30 |
