France vs Senegal Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.2813,
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.015,
      "away_win_prob": 0.21251303086737858,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2446,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.5342,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 4.09,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.68,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.56,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.94,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.11,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.685,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5159461469890673,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4741,
      "model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
      "over_25_prob": 0.5064,
      "prediction_confidence": "medium",
      "source": "worldcup-poisson",
      "under_25_prob": 0.4936
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : France",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : France",
      "percent_away": "21.3%",
      "percent_draw": "27.2%",
      "percent_home": "51.6%",
      "winner_name": "France"
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    "away_xg": 1.014605369557387,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "France",
      "confidence": 51.6,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : France",
        "edge": -0.1426,
        "edge_gap": 0.2438,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6583,
        "model_prob": 0.5157,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 21.2,
          "draw": 27.2,
          "home": 51.6
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.49
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      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.49,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "France Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.52,
        "market_odds": 1.49,
        "model_odds": 1.94,
        "overround": 2.0,
        "prob_edge": -15.6,
        "value_pct": -23.2,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 0,
        "away_score_rate": 63.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 0,
        "home_score_rate": 81.5,
        "no_prob": 46.6,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 53.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 53.4
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.01,
        "home_expected": 1.69,
        "scores": [
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            "prob": 11.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 11.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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            "prob": 9.7
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          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
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          {
            "away": 1,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "France or Draw",
            "prob": 78.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "France or Senegal",
            "prob": 72.8
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Senegal",
            "prob": 48.4
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        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "France or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 78.8
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      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 21.2,
        "draw_pct": 27.2,
        "home_pct": 51.6,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "France"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "away_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "over_prob": 50.6,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 50.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.7,
        "under_prob": 49.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 59.0,
        "implied_prob": 13.3,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Senegal Win",
        "model_prob": 21.2,
        "odds": 7.5
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Senegal",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "France",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 65.83,
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          "model_pct": 51.6
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.09,
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      "movement": [
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          "closing": 1.49,
          "early": 1.49,
          "implied_closing_pct": 65.83,
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        {
          "closing": 4.65,
          "early": 4.65,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.09,
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          "closing": 7.5,
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          "closing": 2.14,
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          "implied_early_pct": 45.27,
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 8.2,
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 11.5
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.6853946304426133,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1286,
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          "raw_pct": -12.9,
          "text": "-12.9%"
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        "ev_yes": 0.0573,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 5.7,
          "text": "+5.7%"
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        "yes_prob": 53.4
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          "text": "-6.4%"
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        "implied_prob": 0.6583,
        "max_ev": 0.0883,
        "max_ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 8.8,
          "text": "+8.8%"
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        "model_prob": 0.5157,
        "side_label": "France",
        "sort_key": 5270.64,
        "tier": "lean"
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      {
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        "id": "correct_score",
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        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "4/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "4/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +12.0%",
        "alert_team": "Senegal",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 14.2,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -14.23,
        "hero_label": "France",
        "market_prob_pct": 65.8,
        "market_team": "France",
        "model_prob_pct": 51.6,
        "model_team": "France",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -14.23,
          "fair_prob": 51.6,
          "label": "France",
          "market_prob": 65.83,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.11,
          "fair_prob": 27.2,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 21.09,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.22,
          "fair_prob": 21.3,
          "label": "Senegal",
          "market_prob": 13.08,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.74,
          "fair_prob": 50.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.34,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 2.74,
          "fair_prob": 49.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.66,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.02,
          "fair_prob": 53.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 48.38,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.02,
          "fair_prob": 46.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 51.62,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -14.23,
        "fair_prob_pct": 51.6,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "France",
        "market_prob_pct": 65.83,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Senegal"
      },
      "fair_source": "wc_poisson",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 14.23,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "high",
        "fair_confidence_label": "High",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "France",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 65.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 51.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on France, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -14.23,
        "hero_label": "France",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Senegal odds lengthened \u2191 +12.0%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Senegal has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about France than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from Senegal \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about France than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, Senegal has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/14 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Drift away from Senegal \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors France more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Senegal has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (4/14), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 14.23,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.4 pp (at 51.6%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 24.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 51.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -14.23,
            "fair_prob_pct": 51.6,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "France",
            "market_prob_pct": 65.83,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.2,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.09,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 8.22,
            "fair_prob_pct": 21.3,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Senegal",
            "market_prob_pct": 13.08,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Senegal \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.0% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers France (65.8%).",
          "Senegal has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +12.0%, 4/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 France, Market \u2192 France, Recent sharp money \u2192 Senegal.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 67.11,
        "closing_odds": 1.49,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 67.11,
        "entry_odds": 1.49,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 4,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "4/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 7.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
        "move_pct_abs": 12.0,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 271h 55m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Bet365 led repricing on Senegal (12.0%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "7.70 \u2192 6.25 \u2192 7.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 271h 55m",
          "pick_team": "Senegal",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "7.70"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "6.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "7.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.2",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 6.25,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Senegal",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "4/14",
        "current_odds": 7.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
        "open_odds": 6.25,
        "pick_team": "Senegal",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_team_name": "Senegal",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 14.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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      "venue_name": "MetLife Stadium"
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
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        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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        {
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        "ou_2_5": {
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          "value_side": "under"
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        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "valid_markets_count": 4
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-16T18:59:05.106990+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}