Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.869,
      "away_win_prob": 0.6051450784978817,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.509,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.491,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.24701788093843777,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.65,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.05,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 6.76,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.831,
      "home_win_prob": 0.14783704056368077,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
      "over_25_prob": 0.5064,
      "prediction_confidence": "medium",
      "source": "worldcup-poisson",
      "under_25_prob": 0.4936
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Uruguay",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Uruguay",
      "percent_away": "60.5%",
      "percent_draw": "24.7%",
      "percent_home": "14.8%",
      "winner_name": "Uruguay"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.868695661614828,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Uruguay",
      "confidence": 60.6,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Uruguay",
        "edge": -0.0734,
        "edge_gap": 0.3588,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6789,
        "model_prob": 0.6055,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 60.6,
          "draw": 24.7,
          "home": 14.8
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.44
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.44,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Uruguay Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.47,
        "market_odds": 1.44,
        "model_odds": 1.65,
        "overround": 2.3,
        "prob_edge": -8.8,
        "value_pct": -12.7,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 0,
        "away_failed_to_score": 0,
        "away_played": 0,
        "away_score_rate": 84.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 0,
        "home_failed_to_score": 0,
        "home_played": 0,
        "home_score_rate": 56.5,
        "no_prob": 50.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 50.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 49.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.87,
        "home_expected": 0.83,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 11.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-3",
            "prob": 7.3
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Saudi Arabia or Draw",
            "prob": 39.5
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Saudi Arabia or Uruguay",
            "prob": 75.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Uruguay",
            "prob": 85.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Uruguay",
        "pick_prob": 85.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 60.5,
        "draw_pct": 24.7,
        "home_pct": 14.8,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Uruguay"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.7,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.0,
        "over_prob": 50.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 50.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.7,
        "under_prob": 49.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 33.2,
        "implied_prob": 11.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Saudi Arabia Win",
        "model_prob": 14.8,
        "odds": 9.0
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Uruguay",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Saudi Arabia",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 10.86,
          "gap_pp": 3.94,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 14.8
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.25,
          "gap_pp": 3.45,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 24.7
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 67.89,
          "gap_pp": -7.39,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 60.5
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 45.76,
          "gap_pp": 4.84,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 50.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 54.24,
          "gap_pp": -4.84,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 49.4
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 9.0,
          "early": 9.0,
          "implied_closing_pct": 10.86,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 10.86,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.6,
          "early": 4.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.25,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.25,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.44,
          "early": 1.44,
          "implied_closing_pct": 67.89,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 67.89,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.11,
          "early": 2.11,
          "implied_closing_pct": 45.76,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 45.76,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.78,
          "early": 1.78,
          "implied_closing_pct": 54.24,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 54.24,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 4.8,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 12.6
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.831304338385172,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1856,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -18.6,
          "text": "-18.6%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1784,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 17.8,
          "text": "+17.8%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1784,
        "no_prob": 50.9,
        "sort_key": 10310.56,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 49.1
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0778,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.8,
          "text": "+7.8%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1108,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -11.1,
          "text": "-11.1%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0778,
        "over_prob": 50.6,
        "sort_key": 10070.02,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 49.4,
        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0788,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -7.9,
          "text": "-7.9%"
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6789,
        "max_ev": 0.0439,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 4.4,
          "text": "+4.4%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.6055,
        "side_label": "Uruguay",
        "sort_key": 5235.12,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
        "top_prob": 12.6
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "13/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "alert_team": "Saudi Arabia",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 7.4,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -7.39,
        "hero_label": "Uruguay",
        "market_prob_pct": 67.9,
        "market_team": "Uruguay",
        "model_prob_pct": 60.5,
        "model_team": "Uruguay",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.94,
          "fair_prob": 14.8,
          "label": "Saudi Arabia",
          "market_prob": 10.86,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 3.45,
          "fair_prob": 24.7,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 21.25,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.39,
          "fair_prob": 60.5,
          "label": "Uruguay",
          "market_prob": 67.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 4.57,
          "fair_prob": 50.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 46.03,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.57,
          "fair_prob": 49.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 53.97,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.37,
          "fair_prob": 49.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 40.73,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.37,
          "fair_prob": 50.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 59.27,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -7.39,
        "fair_prob_pct": 60.5,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Uruguay",
        "market_prob_pct": 67.89,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Saudi Arabia"
      },
      "fair_source": "wc_poisson",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 7.39,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "high",
        "fair_confidence_label": "High",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Uruguay",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 67.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 60.5,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Uruguay leads both the model grid and market pricing directionally.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -7.39,
        "hero_label": "Uruguay",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Saudi Arabia odds lengthened \u2191 +21.4%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Saudi Arabia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Uruguay. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Saudi Arabia \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Uruguay. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Saudi Arabia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Saudi Arabia \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Uruguay above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Saudi Arabia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Saudi Arabia."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 7.39,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 35.8 pp (at 60.5%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 35.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 60.5,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.94,
            "fair_prob_pct": 14.8,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Saudi Arabia",
            "market_prob_pct": 10.86,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 3.45,
            "fair_prob_pct": 24.7,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.25,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.39,
            "fair_prob_pct": 60.5,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Uruguay",
            "market_prob_pct": 67.89,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Saudi Arabia \u2014 odds lengthened by 21.4% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Uruguay (67.9%).",
          "However, Saudi Arabia has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +21.4%, 13/14).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Uruguay, Market \u2192 Uruguay, Recent sharp money \u2192 Saudi Arabia.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 69.44,
        "closing_odds": 1.44,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 69.44,
        "entry_odds": 1.44,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 13,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 8.5,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "move_pct_abs": 21.4,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 252h 4m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "13/14 books synchronized on Saudi Arabia (21.4% steam, score 97) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "9.05 \u2192 6.20 \u2192 8.50",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 252h 4m",
          "pick_team": "Saudi Arabia",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "9.05"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "6.20"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "8.50"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,4.5",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 7.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Saudi Arabia \u2191 +21.4% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Saudi Arabia",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Saudi Arabia \u2191 +21.4% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "SBO",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "current_odds": 8.5,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +21.4%",
        "open_odds": 7.0,
        "pick_team": "Saudi Arabia",
        "steam_score": 97,
        "steam_team_name": "Saudi Arabia",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 7.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T21:59:04.841457+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}