Ivory Coast vs Ecuador Statistics & Analysis

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    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Ecuador",
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      "percent_draw": "26.1%",
      "percent_home": "18.2%",
      "winner_name": "Ecuador"
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    "away_xg": 1.7693595994695173,
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      "bet_label": "Ecuador",
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        "confidence": "high",
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        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "Ecuador"
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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        "value_rating": "strong_value"
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        "away_played": 0,
        "away_score_rate": 83.0,
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        "home_score_rate": 60.6,
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        "pick_prob": 51.7,
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "Ivory Coast or Draw",
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            "key": "12",
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          {
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        "market": "Ecuador Win",
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    "closing_line_bundle": {
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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          "text": "+25%+"
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        "alert_breadth": "13/14",
        "alert_breadth_note": "13/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +13.9%",
        "alert_team": "Ecuador",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 18.8,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.78,
        "hero_label": "Ecuador",
        "market_prob_pct": 36.9,
        "market_team": "Ecuador",
        "model_prob_pct": 55.7,
        "model_team": "Ecuador",
        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "edge_pp": -11.27,
          "fair_prob": 18.2,
          "label": "Ivory Coast",
          "market_prob": 29.47,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
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        {
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          "fair_prob": 26.1,
          "label": "Draw",
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 18.78,
          "fair_prob": 55.7,
          "label": "Ecuador",
          "market_prob": 36.92,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 18.54,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -18.54,
          "fair_prob": 49.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 67.94,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
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        {
          "edge_pp": 10.31,
          "fair_prob": 51.7,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 41.39,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.31,
          "fair_prob": 48.3,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 58.61,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 18.78,
        "fair_prob_pct": 55.7,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Ecuador",
        "market_prob_pct": 36.92,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Ecuador"
      },
      "fair_source": "wc_poisson",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.78,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "high",
        "fair_confidence_label": "High",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability estimated from Elo-adjusted Poisson model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Ecuador",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Slight edge match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 36.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 55.7,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Ecuador, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "slight_edge",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 18.78,
        "hero_label": "Ecuador",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Ecuador odds lengthened \u2191 +13.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
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          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ecuador.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ecuador."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Ecuador more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "Recent line movement on Ecuador (\u2191 +13.9%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (13/14) supports the current market view on Ecuador."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 18.78,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
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        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 29.6 pp (at 55.7%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 29.6,
          "max_prob_pct": 55.7,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -11.27,
            "fair_prob_pct": 18.2,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ivory Coast",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.47,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.52,
            "fair_prob_pct": 26.1,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.62,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 18.78,
            "fair_prob_pct": 55.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ecuador",
            "market_prob_pct": 36.92,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ecuador.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ecuador (36.9%).",
          "However, Ecuador has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +13.9%, 13/14).",
          "Model and market lean the same side on Ecuador, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 37.74,
        "closing_odds": 2.65,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 37.74,
        "entry_odds": 2.65,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
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            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
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          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
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          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
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        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 13,
        "books_total": 14,
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 13.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 228h 17m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Ecuador (13.9%, 13/14) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.65 \u2192 2.07 \u2192 2.62",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 228h 17m",
          "pick_team": "Ecuador",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.65"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.07"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.62"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.5",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.3,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ecuador \u2191 +13.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ecuador",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ecuador \u2191 +13.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "SBO",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/14",
        "current_odds": 2.62,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +13.9%",
        "open_odds": 2.3,
        "pick_team": "Ecuador",
        "steam_score": 74,
        "steam_team_name": "Ecuador",
        "steam_tier": "A"
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        "current_divergence_pp": 18.8,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2382,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2382.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ecuador",
      "country_code": null,
      "country_flag": null,
      "country_name": "World",
      "fixture_id": 1489375,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
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      "home_team_id": 1501,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1501.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Ivory Coast",
      "league_country": "World",
      "league_id": 1,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
      "league_name": "World Cup",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-14 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Philadelphia",
      "venue_name": "Lincoln Financial Field"
    },
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        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 8.0
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
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            "alpha": 0.3237,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": 0.0606,
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          },
          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0296,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2492,
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "edge_no": -0.1031,
          "edge_yes": 0.1031,
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          "implied_no": 0.5861,
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          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.06,
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          "edge_over": 0.1854,
          "edge_under": -0.1854,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.3206,
          "implied_under": 0.6794,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.7,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.5484,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
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          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
        "scoring_type": "neutral",
        "signals": {
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5562,
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          "total_xg": 2.7,
          "under_prob": 0.494,
          "xg_diff": 0.839
        },
        "type": "neutral",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
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        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "ev": 0.1387,
          "implied_prob": 0.3692,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5562,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ecuador"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "model_prob": 0.517,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.3206,
          "model_prob": 0.506,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1489375,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.5484,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
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        "away": 0.5562,
        "draw": 0.2621,
        "home": 0.1817
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "implied_prob": 0.4139,
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        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "risk_band": "strong",
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        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "risk_band": "strong",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ecuador",
        "home": "Ivory Coast"
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      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.27749,
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
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        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1489375,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T22:59:04.815390+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}