Statistics / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - MSFL / Hranice vs Sigma Olomouc II

Hranice vs Sigma Olomouc II Statistics & Analysis

Jun 05, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.43
4 1.68
xG Accuracy: 36%
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Tracked markets vs full-time result

Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sigma Olomouc II Sigma Olomouc II ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "51b610ce849508635b54314bdb2948b5e2b7049d76df7a21a5ea597b49304fd4",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.68,
      "away_win_prob": 0.422,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.367,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.633,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.264,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.37,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.79,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.18,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.43,
      "home_win_prob": 0.314,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.601,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.399
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Winner : Sigma Olomouc II and +1.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Sigma Olomouc II"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.68,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0366,
        "edge_gap": 0.1074,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4584,
        "model_prob": 0.4218,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 42.2,
          "draw": 26.4,
          "home": 31.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
          "odd": 1.96
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.96,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
        "display_market": "Sigma Olomouc II Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.18,
        "market_odds": 1.96,
        "model_odds": 2.37,
        "overround": 11.3,
        "prob_edge": -8.8,
        "value_pct": -17.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 6,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 81.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 12,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 76.1,
        "no_prob": 36.7,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 63.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 63.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.68,
        "home_expected": 1.43,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 7.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 7.5
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-2",
            "prob": 6.4
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Hranice or Draw",
            "prob": 57.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Hranice or Sigma Olomouc II",
            "prob": 73.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Sigma Olomouc II",
            "prob": 68.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Hranice or Sigma Olomouc II",
        "pick_prob": 73.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 42.2,
        "draw_pct": 26.4,
        "home_pct": 31.4,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Sigma Olomouc II"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "+1.5",
        "avg_total": 3.11,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 60.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.11,
        "under_prob": 39.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
        "edge": 1.7,
        "implied_prob": 30.9,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Hranice Win",
        "model_prob": 31.4,
        "odds": 3.24
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "has_data": false
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.43,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0998,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 10.0,
          "text": "+10.0%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.202,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -20.2,
          "text": "-20.2%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0998,
        "over_prob": 60.1,
        "sort_key": 10239.82,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 39.9,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1926,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -19.3,
          "text": "-19.3%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.0191,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 1.9,
          "text": "+1.9%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0191,
        "no_prob": 36.7,
        "sort_key": 5215.28,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 63.3
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1422,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -14.2,
          "text": "-14.2%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4584,
        "max_ev": -0.0675,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -6.8,
          "text": "-6.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4218,
        "side_label": "Sigma Olomouc II",
        "sort_key": 1783.125,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 812.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.7
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8622,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8622.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sigma Olomouc II",
      "country_code": "CZ",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/cz.svg",
      "country_name": "Czech-Republic",
      "fixture_id": 1487459,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Czech-Republic",
      "home_team_id": 7300,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7300.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Hranice",
      "league_country": "Czech-Republic",
      "league_id": 349,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/349.webp",
      "league_name": "3. liga - MSFL",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-07 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Stadion SK Hranice"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5671,
            "best_odd": 1.96,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0207,
            "ev": -0.1422,
            "implied_prob": 0.4584,
            "model_prob": 0.4218,
            "p_final": 0.4377
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2998,
            "best_odd": 3.4,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0001,
            "ev": -0.102,
            "implied_prob": 0.2643,
            "model_prob": 0.2638,
            "p_final": 0.2641
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2833,
            "best_odd": 3.24,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0105,
            "ev": -0.0675,
            "implied_prob": 0.2773,
            "model_prob": 0.3144,
            "p_final": 0.2878
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.2,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.61,
          "edge_no": -0.0591,
          "edge_yes": 0.0591,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1926,
          "ev_yes": 0.0191,
          "implied_no": 0.4261,
          "implied_yes": 0.5739,
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.83,
          "best_under_odd": 2.0,
          "edge_over": 0.0749,
          "edge_under": -0.0749,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0998,
          "ev_under": -0.202,
          "implied_over": 0.5261,
          "implied_under": 0.4739,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.11,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0998,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "high_scoring",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.633,
          "draw_prob": 0.2638,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4218,
          "over_prob": 0.601,
          "total_xg": 3.11,
          "under_prob": 0.399,
          "xg_diff": 0.25
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0207,
          "ev": -0.1422,
          "implied_prob": 0.4584,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4218,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Sigma Olomouc II"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0591,
          "ev": 0.0191,
          "implied_prob": 0.5739,
          "model_prob": 0.633,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0749,
          "ev": 0.0998,
          "implied_prob": 0.5261,
          "model_prob": 0.601,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1487459,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0998,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.4218,
        "draw": 0.2638,
        "home": 0.3144
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Sigma Olomouc II",
        "home": "Hranice"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.074975,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0998,
        "implied_prob": 0.5261,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.601,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1487459,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-07T18:18:18.901671+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
  • Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
  • Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
  • Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.

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Back to Statistics
3. liga - MSFL 3. liga - MSFLStandings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Třinec 33 23 7 3 76
2 Hodonín 33 21 7 5 70
3 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 19 4 10 61
4 Uničov 33 17 11 6 61
5 Sigma Olomouc II 33 18 6 10 59
6 Frýdek-Místek 33 16 10 7 58
7 Vrchovina 33 16 7 10 55
8 Unie Hlubina 33 13 8 12 47
9 Vsetín 33 13 6 14 45
10 Zlín II 33 10 10 13 40
11 Vítkovice 33 11 7 15 40
12 Slovácko II 33 9 11 13 38
13 Polanka nad Odrou 33 9 8 16 35
14 Hranice 33 7 9 17 30
15 Blansko 33 9 3 21 30
16 Karviná II 33 7 8 18 29
17 Hlučín 33 6 7 20 25
18 Start Brno 33 4 12 18 24
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hodonín 33 75 36 +39 70
2 Třinec 33 74 24 +50 76
3 Sigma Olomouc II 33 68 32 +36 59
4 Zbrojovka Brno II 33 67 46 +21 61
5 Vrchovina 33 63 49 +14 55
6 Zlín II 33 55 64 -9 40
7 Frýdek-Místek 33 52 37 +15 58
8 Uničov 33 52 41 +11 61
9 Unie Hlubina 33 51 47 +4 47
10 Vsetín 33 51 52 -1 45
11 Slovácko II 33 48 54 -6 38
12 Vítkovice 33 46 55 -9 40
13 Blansko 33 44 77 -33 30
14 Hlučín 33 39 72 -33 25
15 Karviná II 33 38 59 -21 29
16 Hranice 33 37 58 -21 30
17 Polanka nad Odrou 33 37 60 -23 35
18 Start Brno 33 32 66 -34 24