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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Pamba Jiji Tanzania Prisons ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "efe3945c86db4059a7bb3eae88b94fadf6b545bd902ddb416cde7608ba8de634",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Pamba Jiji or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Pamba Jiji"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pamba Jiji",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1414,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 15,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 37.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 54.2,
"no_prob": 79.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 79.7,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 20.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.75,
"home_expected": 1.1,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 17.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.5
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pamba Jiji or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pamba Jiji or Tanzania Prisons",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Tanzania Prisons",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Pamba Jiji or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 10.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Pamba Jiji"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.85,
"away_avg_scored": 0.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 28.3,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 71.7,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.85,
"under_prob": 71.7
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Tanzania Prisons",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pamba Jiji",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.91,
"gap_pp": -14.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.22,
"gap_pp": -2.55,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 15.87,
"gap_pp": 16.69,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.34,
"gap_pp": -10.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 28.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.66,
"gap_pp": 10.04,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 71.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.59,
"early": 1.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.91,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.15,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.22,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.6,
"early": 5.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 15.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 15.87,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.34,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.66,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.66,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 17.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2194,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.9,
"text": "+21.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.5128,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -51.3,
"text": "-51.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2194,
"no_prob": 79.7,
"sort_key": 10347.46,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 20.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3208,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.1,
"text": "-32.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0755,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.5,
"text": "+7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0755,
"over_prob": 28.3,
"sort_key": 10067.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 71.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2174,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"max_ev": 0.0291,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.9,
"text": "+2.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Pamba Jiji",
"sort_key": 5223.28,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 831.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 17.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 12202,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12202.webp",
"away_team_name": "Tanzania Prisons",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tz.svg",
"country_name": "Tanzania",
"fixture_id": 1477233,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 24707,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/24707.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pamba Jiji",
"league_country": "Tanzania",
"league_id": 567,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/567.webp",
"league_name": "Ligi kuu Bara",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-26 11:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1499,
"best_odd": 5.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.1587,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.1838
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2885,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0074,
"ev": -0.1343,
"implied_prob": 0.2822,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2748
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4727,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.2174,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.4922
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.4,
"edge_no": 0.1919,
"edge_yes": -0.1919,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2194,
"ev_yes": -0.5128,
"implied_no": 0.6051,
"implied_yes": 0.3949,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.4,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": -0.1059,
"edge_under": 0.1059,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3208,
"ev_under": 0.0755,
"implied_over": 0.3889,
"implied_under": 0.6111,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2194,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.203,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.283,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.717,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0291,
"implied_prob": 0.1587,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Tanzania Prisons",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0668,
"ev": -0.2174,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pamba Jiji"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1919,
"ev": 0.2194,
"implied_prob": 0.6051,
"model_prob": 0.797,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1059,
"ev": 0.0755,
"implied_prob": 0.6111,
"model_prob": 0.717,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1477233,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2194,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Tanzania Prisons",
"home": "Pamba Jiji"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.174862,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2194,
"implied_prob": 0.6051,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.797,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1477233,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-26T18:13:20.812911+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 25 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 60 |
| 2 | Simba | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 58 |
| 3 | Azam | 25 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 52 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 5 | JKT Tanzania | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 38 |
| 6 | Tabora United | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 37 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 8 | Dodoma Jiji | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 33 |
| 9 | Fountain Gate | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 10 | Coastal Union | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 28 |
| 11 | Mashujaa | 25 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 27 |
| 12 | Mtibwa Sugar | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 27 |
| 13 | Namungo | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 25 |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 15 | Tanzania Prisons | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 20 |
| 16 | KMC | 25 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Africans | 25 | 58 | 9 | +49 | 60 |
| 2 | Simba | 25 | 45 | 10 | +35 | 58 |
| 3 | Azam | 25 | 38 | 9 | +29 | 52 |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 25 | 34 | 27 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Tabora United | 25 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 37 |
| 6 | JKT Tanzania | 25 | 27 | 26 | +1 | 38 |
| 7 | Pamba Jiji | 25 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 33 |
| 8 | Coastal Union | 25 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Dodoma Jiji | 25 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 33 |
| 10 | Mtibwa Sugar | 25 | 23 | 36 | -13 | 27 |
| 11 | Fountain Gate | 25 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 29 |
| 12 | Mbeya City | 25 | 20 | 39 | -19 | 22 |
| 13 | Namungo | 25 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 25 |
| 14 | Tanzania Prisons | 25 | 15 | 36 | -21 | 20 |
| 15 | KMC | 25 | 13 | 43 | -30 | 9 |
| 16 | Mashujaa | 25 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 27 |
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