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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Igman Konjic Stupčanica Olovo ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "e1e7fb4739cb8151a0a030cacdf4ce4f61d9eed01004559a57a2a01e9572d085",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3278,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2974,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.05,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.36,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.67,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.34,
"home_win_prob": 0.3748,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.477,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.524
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Igman Konjic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0466,
"edge_gap": 0.0467,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4212,
"model_prob": 0.3745,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.8,
"draw": 29.8,
"home": 37.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.11
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.11,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Igman Konjic Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.37,
"market_odds": 2.11,
"model_odds": 2.67,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -9.9,
"value_pct": -21.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.34,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Igman Konjic or Draw",
"prob": 67.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Igman Konjic or Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"prob": 62.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Igman Konjic or Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.8,
"draw_pct": 29.7,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Igman Konjic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.58,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 47.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.58,
"under_prob": 52.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -21.0,
"implied_prob": 47.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Igman Konjic Win",
"model_prob": 37.5,
"odds": 2.11
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0718,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.2,
"text": "-7.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0721,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0721,
"over_prob": 47.6,
"sort_key": 10214.89,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 52.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0132,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0262,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0132,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 1796.7,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1525,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"max_ev": -0.0829,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3745,
"side_label": "Igman Konjic",
"sort_key": 1779.275,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 17901,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17901.webp",
"away_team_name": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"country_code": "BA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ba.svg",
"country_name": "Bosnia",
"fixture_id": 1449473,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Bosnia",
"home_team_id": 3367,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3367.webp",
"home_team_name": "Igman Konjic",
"league_country": "Bosnia",
"league_id": 316,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/316.webp",
"league_name": "1st League - FBiH",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-07 15:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Konjic",
"venue_name": "Gradski Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4348,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0098,
"ev": -0.0829,
"implied_prob": 0.3054,
"model_prob": 0.3279,
"p_final": 0.3152
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2891,
"best_odd": 3.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0886,
"implied_prob": 0.2734,
"model_prob": 0.2976,
"p_final": 0.2804
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4185,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"model_prob": 0.3745,
"p_final": 0.4017
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.0141,
"edge_yes": -0.0141,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0132,
"ev_yes": -0.0262,
"implied_no": 0.4449,
"implied_yes": 0.5551,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.95,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0394,
"edge_under": 0.0384,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0718,
"ev_under": 0.0721,
"implied_over": 0.5154,
"implied_under": 0.4846,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.58,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0721,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2976,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3745,
"over_prob": 0.476,
"total_xg": 2.58,
"under_prob": 0.523,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1525,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3745,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Igman Konjic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.4449,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0384,
"ev": 0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1449473,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0721,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3279,
"draw": 0.2976,
"home": 0.3745
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Stup\u010danica Olovo",
"home": "Igman Konjic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026396,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0721,
"implied_prob": 0.4846,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.523,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1449473,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-07T18:33:30.183331+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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1st League - FBiH — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 59 |
| 2 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 3 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Stupčanica Olovo | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 38 |
| 5 | Sloboda Tuzla | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 38 |
| 6 | TOŠK Tešanj | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 37 |
| 7 | Travnik | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 36 |
| 8 | Radnik Hadžići | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 9 | Igman Konjic | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 10 | Budućnost Banovići | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 11 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 30 |
| 12 | Tomislav | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Vitez | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 27 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 25 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Čelik | 26 | 52 | 19 | +33 | 59 |
| 2 | Stupčanica Olovo | 25 | 38 | 26 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | GOŠK Gabela | 26 | 36 | 26 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 | TOŠK Tešanj | 25 | 35 | 28 | +7 | 37 |
| 5 | Travnik | 25 | 34 | 25 | +9 | 36 |
| 6 | Tomislav | 25 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 7 | Radnik Hadžići | 25 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 35 |
| 8 | Sloboda Tuzla | 25 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 38 |
| 9 | Budućnost Banovići | 25 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Igman Konjic | 25 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 11 | Jedinstvo Bihać | 25 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 40 |
| 12 | Vitez | 25 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 27 |
| 13 | Bratstvo Gračanica | 25 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 30 |
| 14 | Tuzla City | 25 | 20 | 54 | -34 | 17 |
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