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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Magesi Magesi ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "7e68f218a3b40cea1c2802300348f9bf9e0fb83620d3173f2e36ff844817806f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.85,
"away_win_prob": 0.2771,
"btts_no_prob": 0.617,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.384,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3544,
"fair_odds_away": 3.61,
"fair_odds_draw": 2.82,
"fair_odds_home": 2.71,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"home_win_prob": 0.3685,
"over_25_prob": 0.288,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.712
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Magesi or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Magesi"
},
"away_xg": 0.85,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Magesi",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0576,
"edge_gap": 0.0144,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.3688,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 27.7,
"draw": 35.4,
"home": 36.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.21
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.21,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Magesi Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.35,
"market_odds": 2.21,
"model_odds": 2.71,
"overround": 6.1,
"prob_edge": -8.3,
"value_pct": -18.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 57.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 15,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 63.9,
"no_prob": 61.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 38.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.85,
"home_expected": 1.02,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 15.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Magesi or Draw",
"prob": 72.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Magesi or Richards Bay",
"prob": 64.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Richards Bay",
"prob": 63.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Magesi or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.7,
"draw_pct": 35.4,
"home_pct": 36.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Magesi"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 1.87,
"away_avg_scored": 0.8,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 28.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 71.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 1.87,
"under_prob": 71.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.0,
"implied_prob": 32.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 35.4,
"odds": 3.08
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Richards Bay",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Magesi",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 6.84,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.64,
"gap_pp": -5.76,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.88
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.59,
"gap_pp": 4.85,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 35.44
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.77,
"gap_pp": 0.91,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 27.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.68,
"gap_pp": -1.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 28.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.32,
"gap_pp": 1.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 71.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.64,
"implied_delta_pp": -6.84,
"implied_early_pct": 49.47,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.08,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.68,
"implied_early_pct": 28.91,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.52,
"early": 4.28,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 5.15,
"implied_early_pct": 21.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
"early": 3.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.31,
"implied_early_pct": 29.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.35,
"early": 1.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.32,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.31,
"implied_early_pct": 70.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 4.8,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 15.7
}
},
"home_xg": 1.02,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0807,
"ev_yes": 0.056,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.056,
"no_prob": 61.7,
"sort_key": 10050.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 38.4
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.064,
"ev_under": 0.0182,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0182,
"over_prob": 28.8,
"sort_key": 5214.56,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 71.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1101,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"max_ev": -0.0162,
"model_prob": 0.3688,
"side_label": "Magesi",
"sort_key": 1795.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 827.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 15.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10567,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10567.webp",
"away_team_name": "Richards Bay",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/za.svg",
"country_name": "South-Africa",
"fixture_id": 1429709,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 19999,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/19999.webp",
"home_team_name": "Magesi",
"league_country": "South-Africa",
"league_id": 288,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/288.webp",
"league_name": "Premier Soccer League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2959,
"best_odd": 3.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0027,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.2677,
"model_prob": 0.2768,
"p_final": 0.2704
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2782,
"best_odd": 3.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": -0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.3059,
"model_prob": 0.3544,
"p_final": 0.3194
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4111,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"model_prob": 0.3688,
"p_final": 0.4027
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.49,
"best_yes_odd": 2.75,
"edge_no": -0.0189,
"edge_yes": 0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0807,
"ev_yes": 0.056,
"implied_no": 0.6359,
"implied_yes": 0.3641,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.25,
"best_under_odd": 1.43,
"edge_over": -0.0297,
"edge_under": 0.0297,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.064,
"ev_under": 0.0182,
"implied_over": 0.3177,
"implied_under": 0.6823,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.87,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.056,
"confidence": 3.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 3.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.384,
"draw_prob": 0.3544,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3688,
"over_prob": 0.288,
"total_xg": 1.87,
"under_prob": 0.712,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.056,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3641,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.384,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0237,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.4264,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3688,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Magesi"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.056,
"implied_prob": 0.3641,
"model_prob": 0.384,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": 0.0182,
"implied_prob": 0.6823,
"model_prob": 0.712,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1429709,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.056,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2768,
"draw": 0.3544,
"home": 0.3688
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Richards Bay",
"home": "Magesi"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1429709,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T18:36:53.111087+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier Soccer League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 66 |
| 3 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 54 |
| 4 | Amazulu | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 43 |
| 6 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 40 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 40 |
| 8 | Durban City | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 39 |
| 9 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 10 | Siwelele | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 36 |
| 11 | Richards Bay | 29 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 34 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
| 13 | Chippa United | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 25 |
| 14 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 24 |
| 15 | Orbit College | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 24 |
| 16 | Magesi | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 57 | 21 | +36 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 56 | 12 | +44 | 66 |
| 3 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 34 | 33 | +1 | 40 |
| 4 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 54 |
| 5 | Amazulu | 29 | 31 | 28 | +3 | 44 |
| 6 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 43 |
| 7 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 31 |
| 8 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 36 |
| 9 | Durban City | 29 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 | Richards Bay | 29 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 34 |
| 11 | Magesi | 29 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 |
| 12 | Chippa United | 29 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 13 | Siwelele | 29 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 36 |
| 14 | Polokwane City | 30 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 40 |
| 15 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 21 | 38 | -17 | 24 |
| 16 | Orbit College | 29 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 24 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaizer Chiefs | 29 | 20.7 | 10.5 | +10.2 | 54 |
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 29 | 16.4 | 7.7 | +8.7 | 66 |
| 3 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 30 | 19.2 | 11.2 | +8.0 | 68 |
| 4 | Magesi | 29 | 16.1 | 13.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 5 | Sekhukhune United | 29 | 16.9 | 14.2 | +2.7 | 43 |
| 6 | Durban City | 29 | 15.7 | 13.6 | +2.1 | 39 |
| 7 | Polokwane City | 30 | 14.0 | 12.2 | +1.8 | 40 |
| 8 | Stellenbosch | 29 | 15.0 | 14.6 | +0.4 | 36 |
| 9 | Richards Bay | 29 | 14.7 | 15.4 | -0.7 | 34 |
| 10 | Siwelele | 29 | 14.2 | 15.8 | -1.6 | 36 |
| 11 | Marumo Gallants | 29 | 11.8 | 15.6 | -3.8 | 24 |
| 12 | TS Galaxy | 29 | 16.6 | 21.2 | -4.6 | 31 |
| 13 | Golden Arrows | 29 | 15.2 | 20.4 | -5.2 | 40 |
| 14 | Amazulu | 29 | 12.8 | 18.1 | -5.3 | 44 |
| 15 | Orbit College | 29 | 12.2 | 19.1 | -6.9 | 24 |
| 16 | Chippa United | 29 | 11.4 | 20.4 | -9.0 | 25 |
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