Sudtirol vs Juve Stabia Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3744,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.315,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.67,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.17,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.22,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.1,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3106,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Juve Stabia",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Juve Stabia"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.23,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Juve Stabia",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.1967,
        "edge_gap": 0.059,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1776,
        "model_prob": 0.3743,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 37.4,
          "draw": 31.5,
          "home": 31.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 5.39
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        "best_odds": 5.39,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Juve Stabia Win",
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        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 5.63,
        "market_odds": 5.39,
        "model_odds": 2.67,
        "overround": 4.5,
        "prob_edge": 18.9,
        "value_pct": 101.9,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 70.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 8,
        "home_failed_to_score": 14,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 66.7,
        "no_prob": 51.1,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 51.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 48.9
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.23,
        "home_expected": 1.1,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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            "prob": 12.0
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            "away": 0,
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            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.7
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            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 9.7
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Sudtirol or Draw",
            "prob": 62.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Sudtirol or Juve Stabia",
            "prob": 68.5
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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          }
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        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Juve Stabia",
        "pick_prob": 68.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 37.4,
        "draw_pct": 31.5,
        "home_pct": 31.1,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Juve Stabia"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.33,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 41.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.33,
        "under_prob": 58.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 101.9,
        "implied_prob": 18.6,
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        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Juve Stabia Win",
        "model_prob": 37.5,
        "odds": 5.39
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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        "label": "0-1",
        "probability": 12.0
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 13.2
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.1,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1068,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1776,
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        "side_label": "Juve Stabia",
        "sort_key": 10246.12,
        "tier": "best"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_over": -0.0977,
        "ev_under": 0.0408,
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        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 58.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
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        "ev_no": -0.1058,
        "ev_yes": 0.0122,
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 863,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/863.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Juve Stabia",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1419964,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1578,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1578.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Sudtirol",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 136,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 13:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
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          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
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            "best_odd": 5.39,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "p_final": 0.2053
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              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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            "ev": 0.0219,
            "implied_prob": 0.2526,
            "model_prob": 0.3153,
            "p_final": 0.2696
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          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 1.68,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0951,
            "ev": -0.2025,
            "implied_prob": 0.5698,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "implied_under": 0.5499,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.33,
      "variance_flag": false
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
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        "score": 6.0
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      "execution": {
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.489,
          "draw_prob": 0.3153,
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          "total_xg": 2.33,
          "under_prob": 0.588,
          "xg_diff": 0.13
        },
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      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0219,
          "implied_prob": 0.2526,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.3153,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "speculative",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
        }
      ],
      "markets": {
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          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3743,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Juve Stabia"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
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          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0381,
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          "implied_prob": 0.5499,
          "model_prob": 0.588,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1419964,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
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        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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        "draw": 0.3153,
        "home": 0.3104
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
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      "teams": {
        "away": "Juve Stabia",
        "home": "Sudtirol"
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Juve Stabia",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T12:59:58.599907+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}