Mantova vs Monza Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.01,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3422,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.3472,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.92,
      "fair_odds_draw": 2.88,
      "fair_odds_home": 3.22,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.95,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3105,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Monza",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Monza"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.01,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.0923,
        "edge_gap": 0.0048,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.2549,
        "model_prob": 0.3471,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 34.2,
          "draw": 34.7,
          "home": 31.0
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": null
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 16,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 36,
        "away_score_rate": 63.6,
        "home_clean_sheet": 9,
        "home_failed_to_score": 11,
        "home_played": 36,
        "home_score_rate": 61.3,
        "no_prob": 59.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 59.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 40.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.01,
        "home_expected": 0.95,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 14.2
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-0",
            "prob": 14.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 13.5
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 13.4
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 7.2
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Mantova or Draw",
            "prob": 65.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Mantova or Monza",
            "prob": 65.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Monza",
            "prob": 68.9
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Monza",
        "pick_prob": 68.9
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 34.2,
        "draw_pct": 34.7,
        "home_pct": 31.1,
        "lean_key": "draw",
        "lean_label": "Draw"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 1.96,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.2,
        "over_prob": 31.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 68.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 1.96,
        "under_prob": 68.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 8,
        "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
        "edge": 63.3,
        "implied_prob": 19.0,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Mantova Win",
        "model_prob": 31.1,
        "odds": 5.25
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": {
        "best_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
        "best_odds": 12.5,
        "edge": 6.1,
        "ev": 76.1,
        "label": "0-0",
        "probability": 14.1
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 14.2
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 0.95,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.3885,
        "ev_under": 0.3347,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3347,
        "over_prob": 31.2,
        "sort_key": 10451.23,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 68.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.1544,
        "ev_yes": -0.2248,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.1544,
        "no_prob": 59.2,
        "sort_key": 10138.96,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 40.8
      },
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0067,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.256,
        "max_ev": 0.0152,
        "model_prob": 0.3471,
        "side_label": "draw",
        "sort_key": 5212.16,
        "tier": "lean"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 822.6,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
        "top_prob": 14.2
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1579,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1579.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Monza",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
      "country_name": "Italy",
      "fixture_id": 1419956,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 1693,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1693.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Mantova",
      "league_country": "Italy",
      "league_id": 136,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/136.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-01 18:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4114,
            "best_odd": 1.67,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0862,
            "ev": -0.2222,
            "implied_prob": 0.5519,
            "model_prob": 0.3424,
            "p_final": 0.4657
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.259,
            "best_odd": 3.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0236,
            "ev": 0.0067,
            "implied_prob": 0.256,
            "model_prob": 0.3471,
            "p_final": 0.2796
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1645,
            "best_odd": 4.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0195,
            "ev": 0.0152,
            "implied_prob": 0.192,
            "model_prob": 0.3105,
            "p_final": 0.2115
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.95,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.9,
          "edge_no": 0.1059,
          "edge_yes": -0.1059,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1544,
          "ev_yes": -0.2248,
          "implied_no": 0.4861,
          "implied_yes": 0.5139,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.96,
          "best_under_odd": 1.94,
          "edge_over": -0.1885,
          "edge_under": 0.1885,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.3885,
          "ev_under": 0.3347,
          "implied_over": 0.5005,
          "implied_under": 0.4995,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 1.96,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3347,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "defensive",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.408,
          "draw_prob": 0.3471,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3471,
          "over_prob": 0.312,
          "total_xg": 1.96,
          "under_prob": 0.688,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "defensive",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0236,
          "ev": 0.0067,
          "implied_prob": 0.256,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3471,
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1059,
          "ev": 0.1544,
          "implied_prob": 0.4861,
          "model_prob": 0.592,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1885,
          "ev": 0.3347,
          "implied_prob": 0.4995,
          "model_prob": 0.688,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1419956,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3347,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3424,
        "draw": 0.3471,
        "home": 0.3105
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1544,
        "implied_prob": 0.4861,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.592,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1544,
          "implied_prob": 0.4861,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.592,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Monza",
        "home": "Mantova"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.299356,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3347,
        "implied_prob": 0.4995,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.688,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1419956,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-01T03:58:20.545232+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}