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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Rheindorf Altach II Kitzbühel ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c58fb7fc87a3518c1d248519c0dc1d87710bbbb020e8e6899bd9dfdb41027947",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3141,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2872,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3988,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.3141,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3141,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.479,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.521,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2872,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2872,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.18,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.48,
"fair_odds_home": 2.51,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.51,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3988,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3988,
"over_25_prob": 0.451,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.549
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Kitzb\u00fchel",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Kitzb\u00fchel"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Rheindorf Altach II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1117,
"edge_gap": 0.0839,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.51,
"model_prob": 0.3983,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.4,
"draw": 28.7,
"home": 39.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.72
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.72,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Rheindorf Altach II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.96,
"market_odds": 1.72,
"model_odds": 2.51,
"overround": 14.0,
"prob_edge": -18.3,
"value_pct": -31.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 11,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 47.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Rheindorf Altach II or Draw",
"prob": 68.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Rheindorf Altach II or Kitzb\u00fchel",
"prob": 71.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Kitzb\u00fchel",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Rheindorf Altach II or Kitzb\u00fchel",
"pick_prob": 71.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.4,
"draw_pct": 28.7,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Rheindorf Altach II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.48,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 45.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 54.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.48,
"under_prob": 54.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 13.9,
"implied_prob": 25.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 28.7,
"odds": 3.97
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2919,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.2,
"text": "-29.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3341,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 33.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3341,
"over_prob": 45.1,
"sort_key": 10450.69,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 54.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2119,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.2,
"text": "+21.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2185,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2119,
"no_prob": 47.9,
"sort_key": 10190.71,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.1
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2188,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.51,
"max_ev": -0.0517,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3983,
"side_label": "Rheindorf Altach II",
"sort_key": 1787.075,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.8
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4947,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4947.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kitzb\u00fchel",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_name": "Austria",
"fixture_id": 1398951,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Austria",
"home_team_id": 8256,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8256.webp",
"home_team_name": "Rheindorf Altach II",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_id": 223,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/223.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga - West",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-07 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Altach",
"venue_name": "CASHPOINT Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2796,
"best_odd": 3.26,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0815,
"implied_prob": 0.2691,
"model_prob": 0.3144,
"p_final": 0.2817
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2701,
"best_odd": 3.97,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0517,
"implied_prob": 0.2209,
"model_prob": 0.2873,
"p_final": 0.2389
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4995,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.2188,
"implied_prob": 0.51,
"model_prob": 0.3983,
"p_final": 0.4542
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.53,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.1036,
"edge_yes": -0.1036,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2119,
"ev_yes": -0.2185,
"implied_no": 0.3754,
"implied_yes": 0.6246,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.43,
"edge_over": -0.1592,
"edge_under": 0.1592,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2919,
"ev_under": 0.3341,
"implied_over": 0.6102,
"implied_under": 0.3898,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.48,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3341,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.521,
"draw_prob": 0.2873,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3983,
"over_prob": 0.451,
"total_xg": 2.48,
"under_prob": 0.549,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0558,
"ev": -0.2188,
"implied_prob": 0.51,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3983,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Rheindorf Altach II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1036,
"ev": 0.2119,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"model_prob": 0.479,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1592,
"ev": 0.3341,
"implied_prob": 0.3898,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1398951,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3341,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3144,
"draw": 0.2873,
"home": 0.3983
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2119,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.479,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2119,
"implied_prob": 0.3754,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.479,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kitzb\u00fchel",
"home": "Rheindorf Altach II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.112987,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3341,
"implied_prob": 0.3898,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.549,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1398951,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-07T18:15:02.333288+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Regionalliga - West — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wacker Innsbruck | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 80 |
| 2 | Kuchl | 30 | 20 | 2 | 8 | 62 |
| 3 | Seekirchen | 30 | 18 | 4 | 8 | 58 |
| 4 | Imst | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 58 |
| 5 | Dornbirn | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 52 |
| 6 | Bischofshofen | 30 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 51 |
| 7 | Hohenems | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 44 |
| 8 | Schwaz | 31 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 44 |
| 9 | SVG Reichenau | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 42 |
| 10 | Kitzbühel | 30 | 12 | 4 | 14 | 40 |
| 11 | Wals-Grünau | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 38 |
| 12 | TSV St. Johann | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 13 | Lustenau | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
| 14 | Rheindorf Altach II | 30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 27 |
| 15 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| 16 | Kufstein | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 22 |
| 17 | Lauterach | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wacker Innsbruck | 30 | 81 | 17 | +64 | 80 |
| 2 | Seekirchen | 30 | 78 | 45 | +33 | 58 |
| 3 | Imst | 30 | 66 | 37 | +29 | 58 |
| 4 | Dornbirn | 31 | 61 | 44 | +17 | 52 |
| 5 | Kuchl | 30 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 62 |
| 6 | Bischofshofen | 30 | 58 | 40 | +18 | 51 |
| 7 | Schwaz | 31 | 56 | 54 | +2 | 44 |
| 8 | Hohenems | 31 | 53 | 49 | +4 | 44 |
| 9 | Wals-Grünau | 30 | 51 | 60 | -9 | 38 |
| 10 | Lustenau | 30 | 45 | 73 | -28 | 31 |
| 11 | TSV St. Johann | 30 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 32 |
| 12 | Lauterach | 31 | 40 | 78 | -38 | 20 |
| 13 | SVG Reichenau | 30 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 42 |
| 14 | Kitzbühel | 30 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 40 |
| 15 | Rheindorf Altach II | 30 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 27 |
| 16 | Kufstein | 30 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 22 |
| 17 | Pinzgau Saalfelden | 30 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 24 |
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