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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Espanyol W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3b9e68409c3d709651bd25965b3e6a24fc3a9caf8db82551ed315972d8cf29c6",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Espanyol W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Espanyol W"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Espanyol W",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.059,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3587,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 62.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 69.0,
"no_prob": 57.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 57.2,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 42.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Espanyol W or Draw",
"prob": 70.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Espanyol W or Sevilla W",
"prob": 65.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sevilla W",
"prob": 65.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Espanyol W or Draw",
"pick_prob": 70.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.0,
"draw_pct": 35.0,
"home_pct": 35.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Espanyol W"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Sevilla W",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Espanyol W",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.87,
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.65,
"gap_pp": -3.98,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.48,
"gap_pp": -1.91,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.44,
"gap_pp": 0.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.56,
"gap_pp": -0.76,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.87,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.0,
"early": 3.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.65,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 34.48,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.95,
"early": 1.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.44,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.56,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.144,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2168,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.7,
"text": "-21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.144,
"no_prob": 57.2,
"sort_key": 10279.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 42.8
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0218,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 5217.44,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0505,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"max_ev": -0.0505,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Espanyol W",
"sort_key": 1787.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1920,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1920.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sevilla W",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1397291,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_id": 1919,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1919.webp",
"home_team_name": "Espanyol W",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 142,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/142.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Femenina",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-31 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Sant Adri\u00e0 de Bes\u00f2s (San Adri\u00e1n de Bes\u00f3s)",
"venue_name": "Ciutat Esportiva Dani Jarque"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4371,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.132,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3364
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.1441,
"implied_prob": 0.2965,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2853
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4102,
"best_odd": 2.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.3829
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"edge_no": 0.0921,
"edge_yes": -0.0921,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.144,
"ev_yes": -0.2168,
"implied_no": 0.4799,
"implied_yes": 0.5201,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.12,
"best_under_odd": 1.8,
"edge_over": 0.0151,
"edge_under": -0.0151,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0218,
"ev_under": -0.0676,
"implied_over": 0.4669,
"implied_under": 0.5331,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.144,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.428,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3587,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Espanyol W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0921,
"ev": 0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.4799,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0218,
"implied_prob": 0.4669,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1397291,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.144,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sevilla W",
"home": "Espanyol W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.082368,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.144,
"implied_prob": 0.4799,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.572,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1397291,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-31T18:48:34.576420+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Primera División Femenina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 30 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 87 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 72 |
| 3 | Real Sociedad W | 30 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 66 |
| 4 | Granad. Tenerife W | 30 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 54 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid W | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 |
| 6 | Granada | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | Athletic Club W | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 44 |
| 8 | Sevilla W | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | FC Levante Badalona | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Madrid CFF W | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 37 |
| 11 | Espanyol W | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 31 |
| 13 | Eibar W | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 14 | Edf Logrono W | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 21 |
| 15 | Alhama W | 30 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 14 |
| 16 | Levante W | 30 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 30 | 130 | 9 | +121 | 87 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 30 | 65 | 18 | +47 | 72 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid W | 30 | 63 | 39 | +24 | 51 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad W | 30 | 61 | 27 | +34 | 66 |
| 5 | Granad. Tenerife W | 30 | 49 | 22 | +27 | 54 |
| 6 | Madrid CFF W | 30 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 37 |
| 7 | Granada | 30 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 45 |
| 8 | Athletic Club W | 30 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 44 |
| 9 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 30 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 31 |
| 10 | Sevilla W | 30 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 | Edf Logrono W | 30 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 21 |
| 12 | Espanyol W | 30 | 28 | 44 | -16 | 31 |
| 13 | FC Levante Badalona | 30 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 39 |
| 14 | Alhama W | 30 | 23 | 78 | -55 | 14 |
| 15 | Eibar W | 30 | 18 | 47 | -29 | 28 |
| 16 | Levante W | 30 | 18 | 62 | -44 | 9 |
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