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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kryvbas KR Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "564c15c9daa7f631ca04015800a7e7909327eb264359ec09ee8582f0f7b680a2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.06,
"away_win_prob": 0.544,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.36,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.64,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2361,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 1.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.24,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 4.55,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.2199,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.647,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.353
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Kryvbas KR and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Kryvbas KR",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"away_xg": 2.06,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kryvbas KR",
"confidence": 54.4,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Kryvbas KR",
"edge": 0.1288,
"edge_gap": 0.3079,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4152,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 54.4,
"draw": 23.6,
"home": 22.0
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.33
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.29
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"odd": 2.25
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.24
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.24
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.2
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 2.2
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.33,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"display_market": "Kryvbas KR Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.41,
"market_odds": 2.2,
"model_odds": 1.84,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 11.4,
"value_pct": 26.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 87.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 36.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 64.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.06,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.4
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Oleksandria or Draw",
"prob": 45.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR",
"prob": 76.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Kryvbas KR",
"prob": 78.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Kryvbas KR",
"pick_prob": 78.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 54.4,
"draw_pct": 23.6,
"home_pct": 22.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.33,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 64.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.33,
"under_prob": 35.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"edge": 26.8,
"implied_prob": 42.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Kryvbas KR Win",
"model_prob": 54.4,
"odds": 2.33
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 2.33,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Kryvbas KR",
"edge": 11.5,
"ev": 26.6,
"probability": 54.4
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1646,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.5,
"text": "+16.5%"
},
"ev_under": -0.2587,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.9,
"text": "-25.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1646,
"over_prob": 64.7,
"sort_key": 10298.14,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 35.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.172,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.2,
"text": "-17.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0368,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0368,
"no_prob": 36.0,
"sort_key": 10033.12,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.0
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0206,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4179,
"max_ev": 0.0206,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side_label": "Kryvbas KR",
"sort_key": 5216.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 808.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 9.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 6489,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6489.webp",
"away_team_name": "Kryvbas KR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1396824,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3619,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3619.webp",
"home_team_name": "Oleksandria",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-29 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3649,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.046,
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.4179,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4639
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1138,
"implied_prob": 0.2704,
"model_prob": 0.2361,
"p_final": 0.2606
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3881,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0356,
"ev": -0.1856,
"implied_prob": 0.3117,
"model_prob": 0.22,
"p_final": 0.2761
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.0619,
"edge_yes": 0.0619,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.172,
"ev_yes": 0.0368,
"implied_no": 0.4219,
"implied_yes": 0.5781,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.8,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": 0.111,
"edge_under": -0.111,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1646,
"ev_under": -0.2587,
"implied_over": 0.536,
"implied_under": 0.464,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1646,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.64,
"draw_prob": 0.2361,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.544,
"over_prob": 0.647,
"total_xg": 3.33,
"under_prob": 0.353,
"xg_diff": 0.79
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.046,
"ev": 0.0206,
"implied_prob": 0.4179,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0619,
"ev": 0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.5781,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.111,
"ev": 0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.536,
"model_prob": 0.647,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1396824,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1646,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.544,
"draw": 0.2361,
"home": 0.22
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Kryvbas KR",
"home": "Oleksandria"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.13312,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1646,
"implied_prob": 0.536,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.647,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396824,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-28T00:25:13.802891+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 72 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 6 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 72 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 57 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 48 |
| 4 | Polessya | 30 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 60 |
| 8 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 51 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kudrivka | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 49 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | Oleksandria | 30 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 15 | SK Poltava | 30 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 57 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 72 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 36.9 | 18.0 | +18.9 | 59 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 28.4 | 12.4 | +16.0 | 60 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 51 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 41 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 49 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 22.1 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 31 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 48 |
| 12 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 16.6 | 23.8 | -7.2 | 21 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 17.4 | 29.0 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 32 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 13 |
UEFA Champions League
Premier League
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Ligue 1
Eredivisie
Bundesliga
UEFA Europa League
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Primeira Liga
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