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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 1-2, 1-1, 0-3 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
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View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c77456b7656108ec1e1852d4824595513015cf5c1fc85f8fe21184c9958091a9",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.17,
"away_win_prob": 0.6689,
"btts_no_prob": 0.489,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.511,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2122,
"fair_odds_away": 1.5,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.71,
"fair_odds_home": 8.41,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.83,
"home_win_prob": 0.1189,
"over_25_prob": 0.577,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.423
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Shakhtar Donetsk and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"away_xg": 2.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"confidence": 66.8,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Shakhtar Donetsk",
"edge": 0.0116,
"edge_gap": 0.4553,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6565,
"model_prob": 0.6681,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 66.8,
"draw": 21.3,
"home": 11.9
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.43
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.43,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.52,
"market_odds": 1.43,
"model_odds": 1.5,
"overround": 6.5,
"prob_edge": -3.3,
"value_pct": -4.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 17,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 88.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 56.4,
"no_prob": 48.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 51.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.17,
"home_expected": 0.83,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 8.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kryvbas KR or Draw",
"prob": 33.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kryvbas KR or Shakhtar Donetsk",
"prob": 78.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk",
"prob": 88.1
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk",
"pick_prob": 88.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 66.9,
"draw_pct": 21.2,
"home_pct": 11.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.0,
"away_avg_scored": 2.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.8,
"over_prob": 57.7,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.0,
"under_prob": 42.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": -4.7,
"implied_prob": 69.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Shakhtar Donetsk Win",
"model_prob": 66.7,
"odds": 1.43
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kryvbas KR",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 14.42,
"gap_pp": -2.5,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 11.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.93,
"gap_pp": 1.34,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.28
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.65,
"gap_pp": 1.16,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 66.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.42,
"gap_pp": -3.72,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 57.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.58,
"gap_pp": 3.72,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 42.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 6.51,
"early": 6.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 14.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 14.42,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.71,
"early": 4.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.93,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.43,
"early": 1.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.65,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.42,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.42,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.58,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 11.7
}
},
"home_xg": 0.83,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0941,
"ev_under": 0.0237,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"over_prob": 57.7,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 42.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0024,
"ev_yes": -0.0904,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0024,
"no_prob": 48.9,
"sort_key": 5201.92,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.1
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0515,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6565,
"max_ev": -0.0488,
"model_prob": 0.6681,
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"sort_key": 1787.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 550,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/550.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ua.svg",
"country_name": "Ukraine",
"fixture_id": 1396816,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 6489,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6489.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kryvbas KR",
"league_country": "Ukraine",
"league_id": 333,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/333.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5896,
"best_odd": 1.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.6565,
"model_prob": 0.6681,
"p_final": 0.6633
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.196,
"best_odd": 4.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0488,
"implied_prob": 0.1993,
"model_prob": 0.2128,
"p_final": 0.2019
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1925,
"best_odd": 6.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.0926,
"implied_prob": 0.1442,
"model_prob": 0.1192,
"p_final": 0.1394
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.78,
"edge_no": 0.0275,
"edge_yes": -0.0275,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0024,
"ev_yes": -0.0904,
"implied_no": 0.4615,
"implied_yes": 0.5385,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.57,
"best_under_odd": 2.42,
"edge_over": -0.0266,
"edge_under": 0.0266,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0941,
"ev_under": 0.0237,
"implied_over": 0.6036,
"implied_under": 0.3964,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.0,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0237,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.511,
"draw_prob": 0.2128,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6681,
"over_prob": 0.577,
"total_xg": 3.0,
"under_prob": 0.423,
"xg_diff": 1.34
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0237,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.423,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0515,
"implied_prob": 0.6565,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6681,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Shakhtar Donetsk"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.0024,
"implied_prob": 0.4615,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0266,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.3964,
"model_prob": 0.423,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1396816,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0237,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.6681,
"draw": 0.2128,
"home": 0.1192
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
"home": "Kryvbas KR"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1396816,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:53:56.107377+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 72 |
| 2 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 6 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 49 |
| 7 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 9 | Karpaty | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 41 |
| 10 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 11 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 14 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 21 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 71 | 21 | +50 | 72 |
| 2 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 66 | 36 | +30 | 57 |
| 3 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 53 | 46 | +7 | 48 |
| 4 | Polessya | 30 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 5 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 41 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 39 | 17 | +22 | 60 |
| 8 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 36 | 19 | +17 | 51 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 32 |
| 10 | Kudrivka | 30 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 28 |
| 11 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 49 |
| 12 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 31 |
| 13 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | Oleksandria | 30 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 15 | SK Poltava | 30 | 23 | 74 | -51 | 13 |
| 16 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 20 | 51 | -31 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Kyiv | 30 | 30.7 | 10.1 | +20.6 | 57 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 30 | 29.8 | 9.8 | +20.0 | 72 |
| 3 | Polessya | 30 | 36.9 | 18.0 | +18.9 | 59 |
| 4 | LNZ Cherkasy | 30 | 28.4 | 12.4 | +16.0 | 60 |
| 5 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 30 | 22.0 | 12.7 | +9.3 | 51 |
| 6 | Karpaty | 30 | 24.4 | 20.0 | +4.4 | 41 |
| 7 | Kolos Kovalivka | 30 | 22.6 | 22.2 | +0.4 | 49 |
| 8 | Zorya Luhansk | 30 | 22.1 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 46 |
| 9 | Veres Rivne | 30 | 12.6 | 16.5 | -3.9 | 31 |
| 10 | Obolon'-Brovar | 30 | 17.2 | 23.2 | -6.0 | 31 |
| 11 | Kryvbas KR | 30 | 21.4 | 27.8 | -6.4 | 48 |
| 12 | Ruh Lviv | 30 | 16.6 | 23.8 | -7.2 | 21 |
| 13 | Kudrivka | 30 | 17.4 | 29.0 | -11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 30 | 18.9 | 32.2 | -13.3 | 32 |
| 15 | Oleksandria | 30 | 10.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | 17 |
| 16 | SK Poltava | 30 | 10.1 | 36.0 | -25.9 | 13 |
UEFA Champions League
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