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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Real Sociedad II Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2ee325d862ce9f13bb0908d59d60202b802934e82bead9ba6fa727cc5edecc3a",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.17,
"away_win_prob": 0.2247,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.404,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.596,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2539,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.45,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.94,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.86,
"home_win_prob": 0.5214,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.584,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.417
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Cultural Leonesa",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Real Sociedad II",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Cultural Leonesa"
},
"away_xg": 1.17,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Real Sociedad II",
"confidence": 52.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Real Sociedad II",
"edge": 0.0933,
"edge_gap": 0.2672,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.5212,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 22.5,
"draw": 25.4,
"home": 52.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Real Sociedad II"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.25
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.25,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Real Sociedad II Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.34,
"market_odds": 2.25,
"model_odds": 1.92,
"overround": 3.9,
"prob_edge": 7.6,
"value_pct": 17.2,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 17,
"away_played": 41,
"away_score_rate": 69.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 41,
"home_score_rate": 84.4,
"no_prob": 40.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 59.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 59.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.17,
"home_expected": 1.86,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Real Sociedad II or Draw",
"prob": 77.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Real Sociedad II or Cultural Leonesa",
"prob": 74.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cultural Leonesa",
"prob": 47.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Real Sociedad II or Draw",
"pick_prob": 77.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 22.5,
"draw_pct": 25.4,
"home_pct": 52.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Real Sociedad II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.03,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 58.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.03,
"under_prob": 41.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 17.2,
"implied_prob": 44.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Real Sociedad II Win",
"model_prob": 52.1,
"odds": 2.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cultural Leonesa",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Real Sociedad II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.78,
"gap_pp": 9.33,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 52.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.4,
"gap_pp": -3.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.82,
"gap_pp": -6.33,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 22.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.89,
"gap_pp": 4.51,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 58.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.11,
"gap_pp": -4.51,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 41.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.39,
"early": 3.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.4,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.34,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.82,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.89,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.89,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.08,
"early": 2.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.11,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.86,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.057,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1056,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.057,
"over_prob": 58.4,
"sort_key": 10201.3,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 41.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0439,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"max_ev": 0.0439,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5212,
"side_label": "Real Sociedad II",
"sort_key": 10039.51,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0708,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0345,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0345,
"no_prob": 40.4,
"sort_key": 1791.375,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 59.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.5
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 725,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/725.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cultural Leonesa",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1392225,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_id": 9585,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9585.webp",
"home_team_name": "Real Sociedad II",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_id": 141,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-31 16:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Donostia-San Sebasti\u00e1n",
"venue_name": "Zubieta Real Sociedad"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2715,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0172,
"ev": -0.0948,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2249,
"p_final": 0.271
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2865,
"best_odd": 3.39,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0086,
"ev": -0.0665,
"implied_prob": 0.284,
"model_prob": 0.254,
"p_final": 0.2754
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.387,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0361,
"ev": 0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.5212,
"p_final": 0.464
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.0145,
"edge_yes": 0.0145,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0708,
"ev_yes": -0.0345,
"implied_no": 0.4185,
"implied_yes": 0.5815,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": 0.0489,
"edge_under": -0.0489,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.057,
"ev_under": -0.1056,
"implied_over": 0.5351,
"implied_under": 0.4649,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.03,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.057,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.596,
"draw_prob": 0.254,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5212,
"over_prob": 0.584,
"total_xg": 3.03,
"under_prob": 0.416,
"xg_diff": 0.69
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0361,
"ev": 0.0439,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5212,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Real Sociedad II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0345,
"implied_prob": 0.5815,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0489,
"ev": 0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.584,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1392225,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.057,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2249,
"draw": 0.254,
"home": 0.5212
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cultural Leonesa",
"home": "Real Sociedad II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04161,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.057,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.584,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1392225,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-31T18:49:53.222226+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Segunda División — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 82 |
| 2 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 77 |
| 3 | Almeria | 42 | 22 | 8 | 12 | 74 |
| 4 | Malaga | 42 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 73 |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 42 | 20 | 13 | 9 | 73 |
| 6 | Castellón | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 72 |
| 7 | Burgos | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 72 |
| 8 | Eibar | 42 | 19 | 10 | 13 | 67 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 61 |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 18 | 7 | 17 | 61 |
| 11 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 61 |
| 12 | Albacete | 42 | 16 | 11 | 15 | 59 |
| 13 | FC Andorra | 42 | 16 | 10 | 16 | 58 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 48 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 47 |
| 16 | Leganes | 42 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 46 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 46 |
| 18 | Cadiz | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 43 |
| 19 | Mirandes | 42 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 40 |
| 20 | Huesca | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 38 |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 37 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 42 | 8 | 12 | 22 | 36 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander | 42 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 82 |
| 2 | Almeria | 42 | 81 | 63 | +18 | 74 |
| 3 | Malaga | 42 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 73 |
| 4 | Castellón | 42 | 70 | 51 | +19 | 72 |
| 5 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 77 |
| 6 | FC Andorra | 42 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 58 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 61 |
| 8 | Las Palmas | 42 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 73 |
| 9 | Cordoba | 42 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 61 |
| 10 | Albacete | 42 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 59 |
| 11 | Eibar | 42 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 67 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 61 |
| 14 | Granada CF | 42 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 48 |
| 15 | Burgos | 42 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 72 |
| 16 | Mirandes | 42 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 40 |
| 17 | Valladolid | 42 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 46 |
| 18 | Leganes | 42 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 46 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 42 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 43 |
| 20 | Huesca | 42 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 38 |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 37 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 42 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 36 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 42 | 41.1 | 29.0 | +12.1 | 72 |
| 2 | Valladolid | 42 | 34.2 | 23.6 | +10.6 | 46 |
| 3 | Cordoba | 42 | 39.1 | 32.6 | +6.5 | 61 |
| 4 | Eibar | 42 | 38.5 | 32.4 | +6.1 | 67 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 42 | 36.6 | 32.0 | +4.6 | 82 |
| 6 | Burgos | 42 | 32.1 | 27.9 | +4.2 | 72 |
| 7 | Malaga | 42 | 36.9 | 33.4 | +3.5 | 73 |
| 8 | Granada CF | 42 | 32.0 | 29.2 | +2.8 | 48 |
| 9 | Las Palmas | 42 | 22.9 | 20.6 | +2.3 | 73 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 30.2 | 28.3 | +1.9 | 77 |
| 11 | Albacete | 42 | 35.2 | 33.7 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 42 | 30.8 | 29.4 | +1.4 | 61 |
| 13 | Almeria | 42 | 32.7 | 31.4 | +1.3 | 74 |
| 14 | Zaragoza | 42 | 30.6 | 30.5 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 15 | Leganes | 42 | 34.1 | 35.4 | -1.3 | 46 |
| 16 | FC Andorra | 42 | 31.8 | 33.5 | -1.7 | 58 |
| 17 | Huesca | 42 | 27.3 | 29.6 | -2.3 | 38 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 42 | 30.7 | 38.6 | -7.9 | 47 |
| 19 | AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 35.3 | 44.9 | -9.6 | 61 |
| 20 | Mirandes | 42 | 28.2 | 38.8 | -10.6 | 40 |
| 21 | Cadiz | 42 | 26.9 | 39.4 | -12.5 | 43 |
| 22 | Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 29.1 | 42.3 | -13.2 | 37 |
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