Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.1953,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2464,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.12,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.06,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.79,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.93,
      "home_win_prob": 0.5583,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Hertha BSC or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Hertha BSC",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Hertha BSC"
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    "away_xg": 1.08,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Hertha BSC",
      "confidence": 55.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "medium",
        "display_text": "Winner : Hertha BSC",
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        "edge_gap": 0.3123,
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        "pick_type": "winner",
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          "draw": 24.6,
          "home": 55.9
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        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Hertha BSC"
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      "market_comparison": [
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          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.85
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      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.85,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Hertha BSC Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.94,
        "market_odds": 1.85,
        "model_odds": 1.79,
        "overround": 5.1,
        "prob_edge": 1.8,
        "value_pct": 3.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 66.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 12,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 85.5,
        "no_prob": 42.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 57.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 57.8
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        "home_expected": 1.93,
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            "home": 1,
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            "prob": 10.3
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 9.9
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            "away": 1,
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      "double_chance": {
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            "label": "Hertha BSC or SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
            "prob": 75.3
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          {
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        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Hertha BSC or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 80.4
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        "draw_pct": 24.6,
        "home_pct": 55.8,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Hertha BSC"
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        "avg_total": 3.01,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.4,
        "over_prob": 57.9,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 57.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.01,
        "under_prob": 42.1
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "edge": 7.0,
        "implied_prob": 23.0,
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        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 24.6,
        "odds": 4.35
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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    "home_xg": 1.93,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": 0.2125,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.2125,
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        "tier": "best",
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "ev_yes": -0.1619,
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        "sort_key": 10125.46,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 57.8
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      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0029,
        "ev_available": true,
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        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5142,
        "max_ev": -0.0029,
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        "side_label": "Hertha BSC",
        "sort_key": 2199.768,
        "tier": "pass"
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      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
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      "away_team_id": 178,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/178.webp",
      "away_team_name": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/de.svg",
      "country_name": "Germany",
      "fixture_id": 1388905,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 159,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/159.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Hertha BSC",
      "league_country": "Germany",
      "league_id": 79,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/79.webp",
      "league_name": "2. Bundesliga",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-08 11:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.1173,
            "implied_prob": 0.2672,
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "implied_under": 0.3442,
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2125,
      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
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        "grade": "A",
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "draw_prob": 0.2462,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5585,
          "over_prob": 0.579,
          "total_xg": 3.01,
          "under_prob": 0.421,
          "xg_diff": 0.85
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": 0.0248,
          "ev": -0.0029,
          "implied_prob": 0.5142,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.5585,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Hertha BSC"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0715,
          "ev": 0.1394,
          "implied_prob": 0.3505,
          "model_prob": 0.422,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0768,
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          "implied_prob": 0.3442,
          "model_prob": 0.421,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1388905,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2125,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
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      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1953,
        "draw": 0.2462,
        "home": 0.5585
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "implied_prob": 0.3505,
        "market": "btts",
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1394,
          "implied_prob": 0.3505,
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "SpVgg Greuther F\u00fcrth",
        "home": "Hertha BSC"
      },
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        "model_prob": 0.421,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1388905,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-08T11:29:06.036864+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}