RC Lens vs FC Nantes Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
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    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 0.96,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1417,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2164,
      "fair_odds_away": 7.05,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.62,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.56,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.19,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6419,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Winner : RC Lens",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "RC Lens"
    },
    "away_xg": 0.96,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "RC Lens",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.0168,
        "edge_gap": 0.4249,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.6583,
        "model_prob": 0.6415,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 14.2,
          "draw": 21.7,
          "home": 64.1
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.47
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.47,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "RC Lens Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.52,
        "market_odds": 1.47,
        "model_odds": 1.56,
        "overround": 3.3,
        "prob_edge": -3.9,
        "value_pct": -5.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 13,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 61.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 10,
        "home_failed_to_score": 5,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 88.8,
        "no_prob": 44.0,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 56.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 56.0
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 0.96,
        "home_expected": 2.19,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 10.3
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.9
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.4
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 9.0
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-0",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "RC Lens or Draw",
            "prob": 85.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "RC Lens or FC Nantes",
            "prob": 78.4
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FC Nantes",
            "prob": 35.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "RC Lens or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 85.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 14.2,
        "draw_pct": 21.6,
        "home_pct": 64.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "RC Lens"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.15,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.0,
        "over_prob": 61.0,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 61.0,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.15,
        "under_prob": 39.0
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 7.4,
        "implied_prob": 20.1,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Draw",
        "market": "Draw",
        "model_prob": 21.6,
        "odds": 4.97
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-0",
        "prob": 10.3
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.19,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0545,
        "ev_under": 0.0218,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0218,
        "over_prob": 61.0,
        "sort_key": 5217.44,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 39.0,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0468,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.6583,
        "max_ev": -0.0113,
        "model_prob": 0.6415,
        "side_label": "RC Lens",
        "sort_key": 1797.175,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.054,
        "ev_yes": -0.048,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": -0.048,
        "no_prob": 44.0,
        "sort_key": 1788.0,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 56.0
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.9,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-0",
        "top_prob": 10.3
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    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 83,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/83.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FC Nantes",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fr.svg",
      "country_name": "France",
      "fixture_id": 1387989,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 116,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/116.webp",
      "home_team_name": "RC Lens",
      "league_country": "France",
      "league_id": 61,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/61.webp",
      "league_name": "Ligue 1",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-09 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1985,
            "best_odd": 6.58,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.001,
            "ev": -0.0391,
            "implied_prob": 0.1471,
            "model_prob": 0.1419,
            "p_final": 0.146
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1934,
            "best_odd": 4.97,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0042,
            "ev": -0.0113,
            "implied_prob": 0.1947,
            "model_prob": 0.2166,
            "p_final": 0.1989
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5849,
            "best_odd": 1.47,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0098,
            "ev": -0.0468,
            "implied_prob": 0.6583,
            "model_prob": 0.6415,
            "p_final": 0.6484
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.7,
          "edge_no": -0.0005,
          "edge_yes": 0.0005,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.054,
          "ev_yes": -0.048,
          "implied_no": 0.4405,
          "implied_yes": 0.5595,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.62,
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          "implied_under": 0.3779,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.15,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0218,
      "confidence": 5.0,
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        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "total_xg": 3.15,
          "under_prob": 0.39,
          "xg_diff": 1.23
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": {
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        "ev": 0.0218,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.3779,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.39,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0098,
          "ev": -0.0468,
          "implied_prob": 0.6583,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.6415,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "RC Lens"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0005,
          "ev": -0.048,
          "implied_prob": 0.5595,
          "model_prob": 0.56,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0121,
          "ev": 0.0218,
          "implied_prob": 0.3779,
          "model_prob": 0.39,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1387989,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0218,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1419,
        "draw": 0.2166,
        "home": 0.6415
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FC Nantes",
        "home": "RC Lens"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1387989,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-09T18:59:11.980464+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}