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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Primorje Celje ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 0-3 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f7d4ff19e869caf44e41512a6741bf2017032bc2a13e55986ea37b7c01f11c1d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Celje",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Celje"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Primorje",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2568,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1609,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 90.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 57.6,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.3,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.3,
"home_expected": 0.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Primorje or Draw",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Primorje or Celje",
"prob": 50.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Celje",
"prob": 100.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Celje",
"pick_prob": 100.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 50.0,
"draw_pct": 50.0,
"home_pct": 0.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.25,
"away_avg_scored": 2.5,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 63.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.0,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.25,
"under_prob": 37.0
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Celje",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Primorje",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 16.09,
"gap_pp": 25.68,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.88,
"gap_pp": 6.79,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 65.03,
"gap_pp": -32.46,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 71.08,
"gap_pp": -8.08,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 63.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.92,
"gap_pp": 8.08,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 37.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 5.74,
"early": 5.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 16.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 16.09,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.89,
"early": 4.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 18.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 65.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 65.03,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.31,
"early": 1.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 71.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 71.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.22,
"early": 3.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 25.7,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3118,
"ev_yes": -0.2207,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3118,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"sort_key": 10430.62,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1432,
"ev_under": 0.221,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.221,
"over_prob": 63.0,
"sort_key": 10198.9,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 37.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1047,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"max_ev": 0.1047,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Primorje",
"sort_key": 10094.23,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-2",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4360,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4360.webp",
"away_team_name": "Celje",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/si.svg",
"country_name": "Slovenia",
"fixture_id": 1384409,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 14007,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/14007.webp",
"home_team_name": "Primorje",
"league_country": "Slovenia",
"league_id": 373,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/373.webp",
"league_name": "1. SNL",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-23 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3078,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0999,
"ev": -0.2185,
"implied_prob": 0.6503,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.5504
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1796,
"best_odd": 4.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0122,
"ev": -0.017,
"implied_prob": 0.1888,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.201
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.123,
"best_odd": 5.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"p_final": 0.1924
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.49,
"edge_no": 0.1177,
"edge_yes": -0.1177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3118,
"ev_yes": -0.2207,
"implied_no": 0.3593,
"implied_yes": 0.6407,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.3,
"edge_over": -0.0702,
"edge_under": 0.0702,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1432,
"ev_under": 0.221,
"implied_over": 0.7002,
"implied_under": 0.2998,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3118,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.63,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.37,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0316,
"ev": 0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Primorje"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1177,
"ev": 0.3118,
"implied_prob": 0.3593,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0702,
"ev": 0.221,
"implied_prob": 0.2998,
"model_prob": 0.37,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1384409,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3118,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Primorje",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1047,
"implied_prob": 0.1609,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Primorje",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Celje",
"home": "Primorje"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.148729,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3118,
"implied_prob": 0.3593,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.477,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1384409,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-23T19:48:53.587290+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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1. SNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celje | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 74 |
| 2 | Koper | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 67 |
| 3 | Bravo | 34 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 62 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 55 |
| 5 | Maribor | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 6 | Radomlje | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 36 |
| 8 | Mura | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 31 |
| 9 | Primorje | 34 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 |
| 10 | NK Domzale | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celje | 34 | 85 | 32 | +53 | 74 |
| 2 | Koper | 34 | 71 | 43 | +28 | 67 |
| 3 | Bravo | 34 | 62 | 51 | +11 | 62 |
| 4 | Maribor | 34 | 57 | 43 | +14 | 53 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 34 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 55 |
| 6 | Radomlje | 34 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 45 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 34 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 36 |
| 8 | Mura | 34 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 31 |
| 9 | Primorje | 34 | 31 | 74 | -43 | 22 |
| 10 | NK Domzale | 18 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 12 |
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