MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza Statistics & Analysis

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

• League: NB I
• Fixture: MTK Budapest vs Nyiregyhaza
• Kickoff: 2026-05-02 15:00:00
• 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
• xG (showing): MTK Budapest 1.29 — Nyiregyhaza 1.04 (total xG ≈ 2.33)
• Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
• Model: 65.1% · Implied: 54.1% · Probability edge: +11.0 pts · Est. EV: +13.9%
• BTTS (model): Yes 62.4% · No 37.6%
• Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

The engine’s headline primary is: Over 2.5 goals.

If 1X2 looks tight, the engine may still find clearer structure in totals or BTTS — that is intentional.

Edges shrink quickly if prices move; always re-check the number on your book.

What changes first if odds move?

Implied probabilities and EV move immediately with price; model probabilities in this snapshot do not update until the pipeline is re-run. Refresh after material line moves.

How should I read EV versus a probability gap?

Probability edge = model probability minus implied probability (reported here in percentage points). EV ≈ model probability × best tracked decimal odds − 1, shown as return per unit stake. They are related but not interchangeable labels.

What is the best-supported line in this snapshot?

Match the hero card above: if it says “Betting Primary Pick”, that leg cleared primary rules; if it says “Best +EV (tracked markets)”, it is the strongest +EV line that did not meet stricter Primary thresholds. The bullets below repeat the same model %, implied %, edge (pts), and EV % as that card.

Safer market than correct score?

Markets with more liquidity and smoother prices (often 1X2 or O/U 2.5 from many books) are usually easier to reason about than long-tail correct-score prices; still read EV on each leg.

• Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
• Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
• In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
• Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

• Inputs: Same structured facts bundle as the public prediction page (xG / Poisson snapshot, market EV where available, decision engine v2).
• Narrative: Template sentence library with fixture-stable selection (no per-request LLM for this block).
• Compliance: Educational framing only; not personalised advice.

May 01, 2026 (UTC)