Manchester City vs Aston Villa Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.1,
      "away_win_prob": 0.167,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.395,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.606,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2193,
      "fair_odds_away": 5.99,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.56,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.63,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.21,
      "home_win_prob": 0.6136,
      "over_25_prob": 0.643,
      "prediction_confidence": "high",
      "under_25_prob": 0.357
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Manchester City or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Manchester City"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.1,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Manchester City",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
        "edge": -0.112,
        "edge_gap": 0.3943,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.7257,
        "model_prob": 0.6137,
        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 16.7,
          "draw": 21.9,
          "home": 61.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.33
        }
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      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.33,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Manchester City Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.38,
        "market_odds": 1.33,
        "model_odds": 1.63,
        "overround": 3.6,
        "prob_edge": -13.8,
        "value_pct": -18.4,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
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    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 10,
        "away_played": 37,
        "away_score_rate": 66.7,
        "home_clean_sheet": 16,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 37,
        "home_score_rate": 89.0,
        "no_prob": 39.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 60.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 60.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.1,
        "home_expected": 2.21,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.8
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.9
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            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 8.9
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            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 8.1
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Manchester City or Draw",
            "prob": 83.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Manchester City or Aston Villa",
            "prob": 78.1
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Aston Villa",
            "prob": 38.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Manchester City or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 83.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 16.7,
        "draw_pct": 21.9,
        "home_pct": 61.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Manchester City"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 3.31,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 2.1,
        "over_prob": 64.3,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 64.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 3.31,
        "under_prob": 35.7
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 51.0,
        "implied_prob": 11.1,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Aston Villa Win",
        "model_prob": 16.7,
        "odds": 9.04
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Aston Villa",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Manchester City",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "closing_implied_pct": 72.57,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 16.76,
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          "model_pct": 21.94
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 10.68,
          "gap_pp": 6.02,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 16.7
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 67.88,
          "gap_pp": -3.58,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 64.3
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 32.12,
          "gap_pp": 3.58,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 35.7
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.33,
          "early": 1.33,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
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          "implied_closing_pct": 10.68,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.41,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 2.98,
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          "implied_early_pct": 32.12,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
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    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
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    "home_xg": 2.21,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "best_odds": 1.33,
      "confidence": "strong",
      "display_label": "Home Manchester City",
      "edge": -13.8,
      "ev": -18.4,
      "probability": 61.4
    },
    "market_cards": [
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        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_over": -0.0934,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -9.3,
          "text": "-9.3%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.2852,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 28.5,
          "text": "+25%+"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "sort_key": 10406.68,
        "tier": "best",
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        "value_side": "under"
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        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.1092,
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        "ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": -10.9,
          "text": "-10.9%"
        },
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        "id": "1x2",
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        "max_ev_display": {
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          "raw_pct": 6.4,
          "text": "+6.4%"
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        "tier": "lean"
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      {
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        "ev_yes": 0.012,
        "ev_yes_display": {
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.4,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.8
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 66,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/66.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Aston Villa",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
      "country_name": "England",
      "fixture_id": 1379344,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 50,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/50.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Manchester City",
      "league_country": "England",
      "league_id": 39,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
      "league_name": "Premier League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-24 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
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          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1819,
            "best_odd": 9.04,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.011,
            "ev": 0.0642,
            "implied_prob": 0.1068,
            "model_prob": 0.167,
            "p_final": 0.1177
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1845,
            "best_odd": 5.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0096,
            "ev": 0.0202,
            "implied_prob": 0.1676,
            "model_prob": 0.2194,
            "p_final": 0.1771
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4992,
            "best_odd": 1.33,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0559,
            "ev": -0.1092,
            "implied_prob": 0.7257,
            "model_prob": 0.6137,
            "p_final": 0.6698
          }
        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.0215,
          "edge_yes": 0.0225,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.052,
          "ev_yes": 0.012,
          "implied_no": 0.4165,
          "implied_yes": 0.5835,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.41,
          "best_under_odd": 3.6,
          "edge_over": -0.0547,
          "edge_under": 0.0547,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0934,
          "ev_under": 0.2852,
          "implied_over": 0.6977,
          "implied_under": 0.3023,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.31,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
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      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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        "active": false,
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
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          "btts_yes_prob": 0.606,
          "draw_prob": 0.2194,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6137,
          "over_prob": 0.643,
          "total_xg": 3.31,
          "under_prob": 0.357,
          "xg_diff": 1.11
        },
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.0642,
          "implied_prob": 0.1068,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.167,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Aston Villa",
          "slot": "longshot"
        },
        {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "ev": 0.0202,
          "implied_prob": 0.1676,
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          "risk_band": "longshot",
          "risk_tier": "longshot",
          "side": "draw",
          "side_label": "draw",
          "slot": "longshot"
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      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
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          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.6137,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Manchester City"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0225,
          "ev": 0.012,
          "implied_prob": 0.5835,
          "model_prob": 0.606,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0547,
          "ev": 0.2852,
          "implied_prob": 0.3023,
          "model_prob": 0.357,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1379344,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2852,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.167,
        "draw": 0.2194,
        "home": 0.6137
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals",
        "longshot_high_variance"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Aston Villa",
        "home": "Manchester City"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.101816,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2852,
        "implied_prob": 0.3023,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.357,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379344,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:27:44.895688+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}