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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Wolves Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d939b5306c2cb9187b0868385d0fd1218a7dda1ebfcd2a821b589032594f1637",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.14,
"away_win_prob": 0.3464,
"btts_no_prob": 0.527,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3221,
"fair_odds_away": 2.89,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.1,
"fair_odds_home": 3.02,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"home_win_prob": 0.3315,
"over_25_prob": 0.391,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.609
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Wolves",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Wolves"
},
"away_xg": 1.14,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Wolves",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0103,
"edge_gap": 0.0149,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.3461,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.6,
"draw": 32.3,
"home": 33.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Wolves Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.98,
"market_odds": 2.9,
"model_odds": 2.89,
"overround": 2.7,
"prob_edge": 0.1,
"value_pct": 0.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 19,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 68.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 14,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 67.0,
"no_prob": 52.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 52.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.14,
"home_expected": 1.11,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Burnley or Draw",
"prob": 65.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Burnley or Wolves",
"prob": 67.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Wolves",
"prob": 66.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Burnley or Wolves",
"pick_prob": 67.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.6,
"draw_pct": 32.2,
"home_pct": 33.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Wolves"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.25,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 39.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.25,
"under_prob": 60.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 11.1,
"implied_prob": 29.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 32.2,
"odds": 3.45
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Wolves",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Burnley",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.19,
"gap_pp": -5.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.23,
"gap_pp": 4.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 32.27
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.58,
"gap_pp": 1.03,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.61
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.04,
"gap_pp": -12.94,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 39.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.96,
"gap_pp": 12.94,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 60.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.55,
"early": 2.55,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.19,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.45,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.23,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.58,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.88,
"early": 1.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.04,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.04,
"early": 2.04,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.96,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.11,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2571,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.7,
"text": "-25.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.352,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 35.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.352,
"over_prob": 39.1,
"sort_key": 10466.8,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 60.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2648,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 26.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2101,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2648,
"no_prob": 52.7,
"sort_key": 10238.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 47.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0129,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"max_ev": 0.0131,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.3,
"text": "+1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3461,
"side_label": "Wolves",
"sort_key": 5210.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.3
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 39,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/39.webp",
"away_team_name": "Wolves",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1379340,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 44,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/44.webp",
"home_team_name": "Burnley",
"league_country": "England",
"league_id": 39,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/39.webp",
"league_name": "Premier League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.443,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.3461,
"p_final": 0.3404
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2818,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0114,
"ev": 0.0131,
"implied_prob": 0.2823,
"model_prob": 0.3227,
"p_final": 0.2937
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4158,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0211,
"ev": -0.0799,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.3312,
"p_final": 0.3608
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.101,
"edge_yes": -0.101,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2648,
"ev_yes": -0.2101,
"implied_no": 0.426,
"implied_yes": 0.574,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 2.22,
"edge_over": -0.136,
"edge_under": 0.136,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2571,
"ev_under": 0.352,
"implied_over": 0.527,
"implied_under": 0.473,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.25,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.352,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.473,
"draw_prob": 0.3227,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3461,
"over_prob": 0.391,
"total_xg": 2.25,
"under_prob": 0.609,
"xg_diff": 0.03
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0129,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3461,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Wolves"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.101,
"ev": 0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.426,
"model_prob": 0.527,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.136,
"ev": 0.352,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"model_prob": 0.609,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1379340,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.352,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3461,
"draw": 0.3227,
"home": 0.3312
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.426,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2648,
"implied_prob": 0.426,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.527,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Wolves",
"home": "Burnley"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.150058,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.352,
"implied_prob": 0.473,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.609,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1379340,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T18:27:23.081645+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 78 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 71 | 27 | +44 | 85 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 69 | 50 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 38 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 38 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 52 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 57 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 65 |
| 8 | Brentford | 38 | 55 | 52 | +3 | 53 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 38 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 |
| 10 | Brighton | 38 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 53 |
| 11 | Leeds | 38 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 |
| 13 | Tottenham | 38 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 |
| 14 | Everton | 38 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 |
| 15 | Fulham | 38 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 |
| 16 | West Ham | 38 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 38 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 64.5 | 28.8 | +35.7 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 68.8 | 42.6 | +26.2 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 64.7 | 48.5 | +16.2 | 71 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 38 | 60.1 | 46.9 | +13.2 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 38 | 63.5 | 51.9 | +11.6 | 52 |
| 6 | Brighton | 38 | 57.4 | 49.9 | +7.5 | 53 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 57.6 | 50.2 | +7.4 | 45 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 38 | 62.5 | 56.8 | +5.7 | 57 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 38 | 57.2 | 51.5 | +5.7 | 49 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 59.3 | 54.3 | +5.0 | 53 |
| 11 | Leeds | 38 | 54.4 | 55.1 | -0.7 | 47 |
| 12 | Fulham | 38 | 47.9 | 52.2 | -4.3 | 52 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 38 | 47.6 | 54.3 | -6.7 | 65 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 46.3 | 56.3 | -10.0 | 44 |
| 15 | Everton | 38 | 45.9 | 55.9 | -10.0 | 49 |
| 16 | Tottenham | 38 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 41 |
| 17 | West Ham | 38 | 45.1 | 56.8 | -11.7 | 39 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 38 | 39.1 | 53.4 | -14.3 | 54 |
| 19 | Wolves | 38 | 35.5 | 58.1 | -22.6 | 20 |
| 20 | Burnley | 38 | 32.3 | 74.9 | -42.6 | 22 |
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