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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Academia Anzoátegui Metropolitanos FC ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Metropolitanos FC win · Academia Anzoátegui 0–2 Metropolitanos FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "c7644bcfa2f6ed91baf46ff90b61155a2f00d7f95e311af46af0dc686388297d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"away_win_prob": 0.3517,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.84,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.84,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.3,
"home_win_prob": 0.3517,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Metropolitanos FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Metropolitanos FC"
},
"away_xg": 1.3,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0956,
"edge_gap": 0.0,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2562,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.2,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 35.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.57
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.57,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.9,
"market_odds": 3.57,
"model_odds": 2.84,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 7.2,
"value_pct": 25.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 72.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 72.7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.3,
"home_expected": 1.3,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui or Draw",
"prob": 64.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui or Metropolitanos FC",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Metropolitanos FC",
"prob": 64.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui or Metropolitanos FC",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.7,
"implied_prob": 28.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui Win",
"model_prob": 35.2,
"odds": 3.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.8,
"ev": -0.181,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.3,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.4652,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2393,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"p_final": 0.4767,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.036,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0466,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4767
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1372,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.7,
"text": "-13.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0065,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4248,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4313
},
"p_final": 0.4313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0172,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0685,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2363,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5681
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0023,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0023,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.2,
"text": "+0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2559,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"sort_key": 5201.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"alert_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"model_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 98,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2558,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638864 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0023,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2801120448179272,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2559,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.3,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.3,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.3,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.30 \u00b7 Away xG 1.30 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"steam_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2558,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638864 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0023,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2801120448179272,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2559,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui 1.30 xG vs Metropolitanos FC 1.30 \u2192 Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui 35.2%",
"Market Steam: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2193 -21.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.17,
"label": "Metropolitanos FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.15,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.35,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.15,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.65,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.25,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.25,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.6,
"model_prob_pct": 35.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui 1.30 xG vs Metropolitanos FC 1.30 \u2192 Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui 35.2%",
"Market Steam: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2193 -21.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui odds shortened \u2193 -21.6%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Metropolitanos FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui (35.2%).",
"However, Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -21.6%, 8/9).",
"Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.48,
"entry_odds": 2.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -13.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -13.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "Ready to validate",
"clv_status": "ready",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 21.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books synchronized on Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui (21.6% steam, score 98) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -21.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.30",
"2.90"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 2.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"pick_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.57,
2.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,2.9 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2193 -21.6% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u2193 -21.6% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "steam",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.9,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_steam",
"signal_label": "Strong steam",
"steam_score": 98,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "\u2193 -21.6%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"steam_score": 98,
"steam_team_name": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "metropolitanos-fc",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Metropolitanos FC",
"away_team_id": 2825,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2825.webp",
"away_team_name": "Metropolitanos FC",
"away_team_public_id": "2DMMLPDmsC5S6t",
"away_team_slug": "metropolitanos-fc",
"country_code": "VE",
"country_display_name": "Venezuela",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ve.svg",
"country_id": 165,
"country_name": "Venezuela",
"fixture_id": 1638864,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Venezuela",
"home_team_display_name": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"home_team_id": 18806,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18806.webp",
"home_team_name": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"home_team_public_id": "4dHINACiqegQ0P",
"home_team_slug": "academia-anzoategui",
"ht.home_team_slug": "academia-anzoategui",
"league_country": "Venezuela",
"league_country_display": "Venezuela",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
"league_id": 299,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/299.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n Venezuela",
"league_public_id": "0uLuRYrdncTjSf",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 20:00:00",
"public_id": "3c2oZRyrbMFHdN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4966,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.057,
"ev": -0.1972,
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4666,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.2562
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2913,
"best_odd": 3.3,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4666,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.2562
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2828
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.257,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4666,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.2562
},
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"p_final": 0.2808
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": -0.1584,
"ev": -0.3105,
"implied_prob": 0.5102,
"model_prob": 0.3518
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.3,
"edge": -0.0066,
"ev": -0.0217,
"implied_prob": 0.303,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0717,
"ev": 0.2558,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.3518
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2148,
"alpha_yes": 0.2363,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0325,
"edge_yes": -0.0325,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0685,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0939,
"implied_no": 0.4225,
"implied_yes": 0.5775,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4313
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2363,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5681
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4313,
"p_final_yes": 0.5681,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2393,
"alpha_under": 0.2176,
"best_over_odd": 1.79,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.0515,
"edge_under": 0.0515,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1372,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0915,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0466,
"implied_over": 0.5335,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5348,
"implied_under": 0.4665,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4652,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2393,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4767
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5221,
"p_final_under": 0.4767,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2558,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.6,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2558,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui at 35.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui as the value side (35.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.42 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638864 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.42 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui).",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0023,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2801120448179272,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2559,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.0 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.0
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3518,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": 0.0023,
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0065,
"market_prob": 0.4248,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0685,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4313
},
"p_final": 0.4313,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0685,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2363,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0071,
"ev": -0.0939,
"implied_prob": 0.5752,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5681
}
},
"edge": 0.0325,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4225,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"market_prob": 0.4652,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2393,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0915,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5221
},
"p_final": 0.4767,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0466,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2176,
"best_odd": 2.0,
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": -0.0466,
"implied_prob": 0.4652,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4767
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0515,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638864,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3518,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3518
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Metropolitanos FC",
"home": "Academia Anzo\u00e1tegui"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4665,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0023,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 3.57,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2562,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3518,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2801120448179272,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2559,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638864,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T19:30:30.727681+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Academia Anzoátegui & Metropolitanos FC!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera División Venezuela — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira FC | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 37 |
| 7 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 36 |
| 8 | Estudiantes de Mérida FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 36 |
| 9 | Caracas FC | 24 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 26 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Zamora FC | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metropolitanos FC | 24 | 41 | 19 | +22 | 53 |
| 2 | Deportivo Táchira FC | 24 | 41 | 26 | +15 | 47 |
| 3 | Real Esppor Club | 24 | 36 | 22 | +14 | 43 |
| 4 | UCV | 24 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 38 |
| 5 | Carabobo FC | 24 | 35 | 22 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Portuguesa FC | 24 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Mérida FC | 24 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello | 24 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 36 |
| 9 | Rayo Zuliano | 24 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 25 |
| 10 | Monagas SC | 24 | 26 | 35 | -9 | 25 |
| 11 | Caracas FC | 24 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 26 |
| 12 | Zamora FC | 24 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Trujillanos FC | 24 | 21 | 44 | -23 | 15 |
| 14 | Academia Anzoátegui | 24 | 21 | 45 | -24 | 14 |
