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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Macclesfield Macclesfield ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Macclesfield win · Redcar Athletic 1–2 Macclesfield
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
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},
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 75.3,
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"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 1,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.4,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Redcar Athletic or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Macclesfield",
"prob": 69.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Redcar Athletic or Macclesfield",
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},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Macclesfield"
},
"over_under": {
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 53.87,
"draw": 23.07,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:13:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 13:50:33",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Redcar Athletic",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.07,
"gap_pp": 7.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.07,
"gap_pp": 6.41,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.87,
"gap_pp": -13.9,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.95,
"gap_pp": -11.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.05,
"gap_pp": 11.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
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"closing": 3.9,
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{
"closing": 3.9,
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{
"closing": 1.67,
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{
"closing": 1.57,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.95,
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"implied_early_pct": 59.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.35,
"early": 2.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.05,
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"implied_early_pct": 40.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
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"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1176,
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"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
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"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"p_final": 0.4241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1707,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4241
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.4,
"text": "-22.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.7,
"text": "+21.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2173,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10345.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4289,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4332
},
"p_final": 0.4332,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0083,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5664
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0083,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.8,
"text": "-0.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1149,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.5,
"text": "-11.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0083,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1797.925,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2106,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0226,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Macclesfield",
"sort_key": 1794.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.93,
"hero_label": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob_pct": 53.9,
"market_team": "Macclesfield",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Macclesfield",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/3",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.93,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Redcar Athletic",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Redcar Athletic 1.20 xG vs Macclesfield 1.40 \u2192 Macclesfield 39.9%",
"Market: Macclesfield ~53.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Redcar Athletic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macclesfield with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Redcar Athletic",
"market_prob": 23.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob": 53.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.5,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.5,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.81,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.81,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob_pct": 53.87,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Redcar Athletic"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Macclesfield\u0027s win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Macclesfield",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Macclesfield \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Redcar Athletic 1.20 xG vs Macclesfield 1.40 \u2192 Macclesfield 39.9%",
"Market: Macclesfield ~53.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Redcar Athletic +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Macclesfield with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.93,
"hero_label": "Macclesfield",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Macclesfield is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Macclesfield is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Macclesfield more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Macclesfield (pricing gap 13.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.93,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Macclesfield",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Macclesfield higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.51,
"edge_pp": 7.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Redcar Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.41,
"edge_pp": 6.41,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.07,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.93,
"edge_pp": -13.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Macclesfield",
"market_prob_pct": 53.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macclesfield than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Macclesfield (53.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Macclesfield, Market \u2192 Macclesfield, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
"closing_odds": 1.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
"entry_odds": 1.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/3",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Redcar Athletic",
"steam_score": 28,
"steam_team_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "macclesfield",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Macclesfield",
"away_team_id": 1380,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1380.webp",
"away_team_name": "Macclesfield",
"away_team_public_id": "0DWmUhBAcDkWOK",
"away_team_slug": "macclesfield",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1638713,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"home_team_id": 16994,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16994.webp",
"home_team_name": "Redcar Athletic",
"home_team_public_id": "5avpuvyyjRdvgr",
"home_team_slug": "redcar-athletic",
"ht.home_team_slug": "redcar-athletic",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Piala FA",
"league_id": 45,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/45.webp",
"league_name": "Piala FA",
"league_public_id": "3qBU7du2W45n9v",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2dXqbbDR0o3vnX",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4749,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2712,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0174,
"ev": -0.0326,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.248
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2663,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": -0.0226,
"implied_prob": 0.2307,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2307,
"home": 0.2307
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2506
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.1991,
"ev": -0.3325,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0383,
"ev": 0.1495,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.0492,
"ev": 0.1917,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1509,
"alpha_yes": 0.166,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.63,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0281,
"edge_yes": -0.0281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0083,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.06,
"ev_yes": -0.1149,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0768,
"implied_no": 0.4289,
"implied_yes": 0.5711,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4332
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"p_final_no": 0.4332,
"p_final_yes": 0.5664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.146,
"alpha_under": 0.1062,
"best_over_odd": 1.61,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.59,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.26,
"edge_over": -0.105,
"edge_under": 0.105,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.224,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.091,
"ev_under": 0.2173,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_over": 0.587,
"implied_over_mf": 0.587,
"implied_under": 0.413,
"implied_under_mf": 0.413,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4241
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5717,
"p_final_under": 0.4241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2173,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2173,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Macclesfield at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Macclesfield as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Macclesfield",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Macclesfield).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Macclesfield"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"market_prob": 0.4289,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1509,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0042,
"ev": -0.06,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4332
},
"p_final": 0.4332,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.06,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.166,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5664
}
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": -0.0083,
"implied_prob": 0.4289,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"market_prob": 0.413,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.146,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0153,
"ev": -0.091,
"implied_prob": 0.587,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5717
},
"p_final": 0.4241,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1062,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4241
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.105,
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638713,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2173,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Macclesfield",
"home": "Redcar Athletic"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069338,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2173,
"implied_prob": 0.413,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3325,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638713,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:13:12.085736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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