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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Roma Wanita Roma Wanita ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-7 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.76
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Roma Wanita win · Sassuolo Wanita 1–7 Roma Wanita
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "5ddec21fa6f2edeb9819cd47b52eb1b13b31af543b06304fc487f5e2a143adec",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Roma Wanita and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Roma Wanita"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Roma Wanita",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1388,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5145,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.76
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.76,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Roma Wanita Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.94,
"market_odds": 1.76,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": -19.2,
"value_pct": -33.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sassuolo Wanita or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sassuolo Wanita or Roma Wanita",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Roma Wanita",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sassuolo Wanita or Roma Wanita",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Roma Wanita"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.7,
"implied_prob": 26.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sassuolo Wanita Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 3.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Roma Wanita",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 51.45,
"draw": 24.28,
"home": 24.28
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 10:02:48",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 09:33:47",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.28,
"gap_pp": 8.59,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.28,
"gap_pp": 5.29,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.45,
"gap_pp": -13.88,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.42,
"gap_pp": -10.22,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.58,
"gap_pp": 10.22,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.73,
"early": 3.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.28,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.73,
"early": 3.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.28,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.76,
"early": 1.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.58,
"early": 1.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 58.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 58.42,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.58,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.58,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.019,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4191,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5601
},
"p_final": 0.438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1344,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.438
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.9,
"text": "-21.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.6,
"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1655,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10298.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4223
},
"p_final": 0.4223,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.001,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0709,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5752
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2106,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.1,
"text": "-21.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0107,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.1,
"text": "-1.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3388,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Roma Wanita",
"sort_key": 1797.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "Roma Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"market_team": "Roma Wanita",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Roma Wanita",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roma Wanita at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roma Wanita as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roma Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Roma Wanita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3388,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roma Wanita at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roma Wanita as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roma Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Roma Wanita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3388,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sassuolo Wanita 1.25 xG vs Roma Wanita 1.35 \u2192 Roma Wanita 37.5%",
"Market: Roma Wanita ~51.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sassuolo Wanita +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Roma Wanita with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.57,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.28,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Roma Wanita",
"market_prob": 51.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.78,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.98,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.78,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.02,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.86,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 58.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.86,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 41.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Roma Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 51.45,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sassuolo Wanita"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Roma Wanita\u0027s win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Roma Wanita",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Roma Wanita \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sassuolo Wanita 1.25 xG vs Roma Wanita 1.35 \u2192 Roma Wanita 37.5%",
"Market: Roma Wanita ~51.5% implied",
"Market Steam: Sassuolo Wanita +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Roma Wanita with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "Roma Wanita",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Roma Wanita than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Roma Wanita than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Roma Wanita than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Roma Wanita more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Roma Wanita (pricing gap 13.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Roma Wanita",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Roma Wanita higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.57,
"edge_pp": 8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.33,
"edge_pp": 5.33,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.28,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -13.91,
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Roma Wanita",
"market_prob_pct": 51.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Roma Wanita than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Roma Wanita (51.5%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Roma Wanita, Market \u2192 Roma Wanita, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.82,
"closing_odds": 1.76,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.82,
"entry_odds": 1.76,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"steam_score": 19,
"steam_team_name": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "roma-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Roma Wanita",
"away_team_id": 1892,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1892.webp",
"away_team_name": "Roma Wanita",
"away_team_public_id": "5X7BJusSvIHZMj",
"away_team_slug": "roma-w",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1638665,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"home_team_id": 1889,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1889.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sassuolo Wanita",
"home_team_public_id": "36UsrLcWPSQjpf",
"home_team_slug": "sassuolo-w",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sassuolo-w",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Piala Serie A Wanita",
"league_id": 1198,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1198.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Serie A Wanita",
"league_public_id": "3Ybf7dkcSfn7Vs",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 10:00:00",
"public_id": "2IvPGKb1w8Obvb",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Sassuolo",
"venue_name": "Stadio Enzo Ricci"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4751,
"best_odd": 1.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5145,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.2428
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4485
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2762,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5145,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.2428
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2574
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2613,
"best_odd": 3.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0225,
"ev": -0.0107,
"implied_prob": 0.2428,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5145,
"draw": 0.2428,
"home": 0.2428
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2652
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.76,
"edge": -0.1925,
"ev": -0.3388,
"implied_prob": 0.5682,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0275,
"ev": 0.1027,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.73,
"edge": 0.0606,
"ev": 0.2261,
"implied_prob": 0.2681,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1694,
"alpha_yes": 0.2329,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0386,
"edge_yes": -0.0386,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0709,
"ev_yes": -0.1171,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"implied_no": 0.4164,
"implied_yes": 0.5836,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4223
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5752
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4223,
"p_final_yes": 0.5752,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2108,
"alpha_under": 0.1916,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0978,
"edge_under": 0.0978,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2192,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1151,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0407,
"implied_over": 0.5798,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5809,
"implied_under": 0.4202,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4191,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5601
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.438
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5601,
"p_final_under": 0.438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2261,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roma Wanita at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roma Wanita as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roma Wanita",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Roma Wanita \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1638665 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Roma Wanita).",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3388,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2106,
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Roma Wanita"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"market_prob": 0.4157,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1694,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0067,
"ev": -0.0709,
"implied_prob": 0.4157,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4223
},
"p_final": 0.4223,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0709,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2329,
"best_odd": 1.565,
"edge": -0.0092,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5752
}
},
"edge": 0.0386,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4164,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.019,
"market_prob": 0.4191,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 1.58,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1151,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5601
},
"p_final": 0.438,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1916,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.019,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.4191,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.438
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0978,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1638665,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Roma Wanita",
"home": "Sassuolo Wanita"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.06001,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2106,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.76,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5681818181818182,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3388,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-33.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1638665,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T10:02:50.910757+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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