Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Lyon Lyon ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.38
AI Fair Odds
2.22
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Lyon win · Anderlecht 1–2 Lyon
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 45.1%
- Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "f17628171a47a3f189a372783298e477bbd43ec0138aa9424eaeaae383a59c23",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.5261,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2567,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2173,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.91,
"away_win_prob": 0.5261,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.5261,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.448,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.552,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2567,
"fair_odds_away": 1.9,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.9,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.9,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.9,
"fair_odds_home": 4.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 4.6,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.0,
"home_win_prob": 0.2173,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2173,
"over_25_prob": 0.556,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.444
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Lyon and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Lyon",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Lyon"
},
"away_xg": 1.91,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lyon",
"confidence": 52.6,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Lyon",
"edge": 0.1196,
"edge_gap": 0.2699,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4067,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 52.6,
"draw": 25.6,
"home": 21.7
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Lyon"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.38
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.38,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Lyon Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.46,
"market_odds": 2.38,
"model_odds": 1.9,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 10.6,
"value_pct": 25.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 85.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 63.2,
"no_prob": 44.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 55.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 55.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.91,
"home_expected": 1.0,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Anderlecht or Draw",
"prob": 47.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Anderlecht or Lyon",
"prob": 74.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lyon",
"prob": 78.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Lyon",
"pick_prob": 78.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 52.6,
"draw_pct": 25.7,
"home_pct": 21.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Lyon"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.91,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 2.3,
"over_prob": 55.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 55.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.91,
"under_prob": 44.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.3,
"implied_prob": 42.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lyon Win",
"model_prob": 52.6,
"odds": 2.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lyon",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.67,
"draw": 26.96,
"home": 32.37
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 19:01:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-16 18:31:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Anderlecht",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.37,
"gap_pp": -10.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 21.74
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.96,
"gap_pp": -1.32,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.64
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.67,
"gap_pp": 11.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 52.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.64,
"gap_pp": -0.04,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 55.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.36,
"gap_pp": 0.04,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 44.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.37,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.59,
"early": 3.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.96,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.67,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.64,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.36,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 14.5,
"edge": 3.0,
"ev": 44.1,
"label": "0-2",
"probability": 9.9
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.4,
"ev": 0.04,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.104,
"model_prob_pct": 10.4,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "0-3",
"prob": 6.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.0,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Marathonbet",
"best_odds": 2.38,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Lyon",
"edge": 10.6,
"ev": 24.0,
"probability": 52.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"edge_pp": 1.4,
"market_prob": 0.3956,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.448,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3956,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4098
},
"p_final": 0.4098,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0573,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3725,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.6044,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5849
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0976,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1058,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.6,
"text": "-10.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0976,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 44.8,
"sort_key": 10237.84,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 55.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.073,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.073,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lyon",
"sort_key": 10065.7,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.444,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"p_final": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0276,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"p_final": 0.4377
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0381,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0123,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0123,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 55.6,
"sort_key": 5209.84,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 44.4,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 811.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 10.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"alert_team": "Lyon",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.94,
"hero_label": "Lyon",
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"market_team": "Lyon",
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"model_team": "Lyon",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lyon at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lyon as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lyon",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lyon \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6923076923076923,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.94,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.91,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.0,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.91,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.00 \u00b7 Away xG 1.91 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +41%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"steam_team": "Lyon",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lyon at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lyon as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lyon",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lyon \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Anderlecht 1.00 xG vs Lyon 1.91 \u2192 Lyon 52.6%",
"Market: Lyon ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Lyon odds \u2191 +20.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lyon, but the market has moved away from Lyon.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.64,
"fair_prob": 21.73,
"label": "Anderlecht",
"market_prob": 32.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.29,
"fair_prob": 25.67,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob": 52.61,
"label": "Lyon",
"market_prob": 40.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.81,
"fair_prob": 55.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.81,
"fair_prob": 44.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.95,
"fair_prob": 55.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.95,
"fair_prob": 44.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.61,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Lyon",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Lyon"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Lyon\u0027s win probability at 52.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 40.7%, a difference of 11.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Lyon",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 11.9,
"model_prob_pct": 52.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+11.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 11.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Anderlecht 1.00 xG vs Lyon 1.91 \u2192 Lyon 52.6%",
"Market: Lyon ~40.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Lyon odds \u2191 +20.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Lyon, but the market has moved away from Lyon.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.94,
"hero_label": "Lyon",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Lyon odds lengthened \u2191 +20.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Lyon.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lyon.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Lyon.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lyon."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Lyon more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Lyon (\u2191 +20.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.9 pp (at 52.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 26.9,
"max_prob_pct": 52.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Lyon",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.9,
"lead": "The model rates Lyon considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -10.64,
"edge_pp": -10.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.73,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Anderlecht",
"market_prob_pct": 32.37,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.29,
"edge_pp": -1.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.96,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.94,
"edge_pp": 11.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 52.61,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lyon",
"market_prob_pct": 40.67,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Lyon.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lyon (40.7%).",
"However, Lyon has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +20.4%, 9/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Lyon, Market \u2192 Lyon, while Lyon odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 42.02,
"closing_odds": 2.38,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 42.02,
"entry_odds": 2.38,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 20.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Lyon (20.4%, 9/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.15",
"1.91"
],
"display": "2.38 \u2192 1.91 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 43m",
"pick_team": "Lyon",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.91,
2.38,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.91"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.91,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 9/13 sportsbooks on Lyon",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Lyon",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"summary": "Market moved away from Lyon while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Lyon",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/13",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +20.4%",
"open_odds": 1.91,
"pick_team": "Lyon",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Lyon",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lyon",
"away_expected_goals": 0.23,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Lyon",
"away_team_id": 80,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/80.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lyon",
"away_team_public_id": "3MYav3gEwrN1WC",
"away_team_slug": "lyon",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1636212,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.0,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Anderlecht",
"home_team_id": 554,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/554.webp",
"home_team_name": "Anderlecht",
"home_team_public_id": "2wThVseTcMKyYY",
"home_team_slug": "anderlecht",
"ht.home_team_slug": "anderlecht",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga Europa UEFA",
"league_id": 3,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/3.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Europa UEFA",
"league_public_id": "0c2w5NuZLjyjGt",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-16 19:00:00",
"public_id": "2EOGjKz23joS2K",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Anderlecht",
"venue_name": "Lotto Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3693,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0442,
"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"p_final": 0.4508
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.294,
"best_odd": 3.59,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0461,
"implied_prob": 0.2696,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.2564,
"p_final": 0.2657
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3782,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0402,
"ev": -0.1524,
"implied_prob": 0.3237,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4067,
"draw": 0.2696,
"home": 0.3237
},
"model_prob": 0.2174,
"p_final": 0.2835
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.1061,
"ev": 0.2525,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.5263
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.59,
"edge": -0.0222,
"ev": -0.0796,
"implied_prob": 0.2786,
"model_prob": 0.2564
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.1171,
"ev": -0.3501,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.2174
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2709,
"alpha_yes": 0.3725,
"best_no_odd": 2.45,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0495,
"edge_yes": -0.0495,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0976,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0328,
"ev_yes": -0.1058,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0964,
"implied_no": 0.3985,
"implied_yes": 0.6015,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2709,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
"ev": -0.0328,
"implied_prob": 0.3956,
"model_prob": 0.448,
"p_final": 0.4098
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3725,
"best_odd": 1.545,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
"implied_prob": 0.6044,
"model_prob": 0.552,
"p_final": 0.5849
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4098,
"p_final_yes": 0.5849,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3983,
"alpha_under": 0.362,
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.28,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.68,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0081,
"edge_under": 0.0081,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0381,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0559,
"ev_under": 0.0123,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0415,
"implied_over": 0.5641,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5659,
"implied_under": 0.4359,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4341,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3983,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
"implied_prob": 0.5659,
"model_prob": 0.556,
"p_final": 0.562
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.362,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
"implied_prob": 0.4341,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"p_final": 0.4377
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.562,
"p_final_under": 0.4377,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.91,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0976,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 4.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0976,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2525,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lyon at 52.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lyon as the value side (52.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lyon",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lyon \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +25% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1636212 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.3/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.3/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"Decision strength: 4.3/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +25% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Lyon, but the model still strongly favours Lyon.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 41.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.91"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.91
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.552,
"draw_prob": 0.2564,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5263,
"over_prob": 0.556,
"total_xg": 2.91,
"under_prob": 0.444,
"xg_diff": 0.91
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0442,
"ev": 0.073,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lyon"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0142,
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"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0142,
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"implied_prob": 0.3956,
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"p_final": 0.4098
},
"p_final": 0.4098,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0328,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
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"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.0964,
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}
},
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"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0036,
"market_prob": 0.4341,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.444,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
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"edge": -0.0039,
"ev": -0.0559,
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},
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0415,
"under": {
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"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0415,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0081,
"ev": 0.0123,
"implied_prob": 0.4359,
"model_prob": 0.444,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1636212,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0976,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2564,
"home": 0.2174
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lyon",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lyon",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lyon",
"home": "Anderlecht"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041539,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0976,
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.073,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4067,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5263,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2526,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1636212,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-16T19:31:45.334738+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Europa UEFA — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 27 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | +2.0 | 3 |
| 2 | Sunderland | 1 | 2.9 | 1.5 | +1.4 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | +1.0 | 3 |
| 4 | Rennes | 1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | +1.0 | 1 |
| 5 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | +0.9 | 0 |
| 6 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | +0.6 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | +0.5 | 1 |
| 8 | AC Milan | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 0 |
| 9 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 0 |
| 10 | Lyon | 1 | 1.3 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 3 |
| 11 | Benfica | 1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | -0.4 | 3 |
| 12 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 1 |
| 13 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 14 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 3 |
| 15 | Celje | 1 | 0.9 | 1.9 | -1.0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0.8 | 1.8 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 17 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1.5 | 2.9 | -1.4 | 0 |
| 18 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 0 |
| 19 | Juventus | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 21 | Beşiktaş | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 22 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 23 | Ferencvárosi TC | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 24 | OFI | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 25 | Bournemouth | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 26 | Torreense | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 27 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 28 | Real Sociedad | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 29 | Lillestrøm | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 30 | Levski Sofia | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 31 | Celtic | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 32 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 33 | Marseille | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | — | — | — | 0 |
