Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Roeselare Daisel Patro Eisden ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.91
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Patro Eisden win · Roeselare Daisel 1–2 Patro Eisden
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1e5d34603a0b12b05653537d70758cdc5e3096abb35bff3b884def38fec95afb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Roeselare Daisel",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0763,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3083,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.9
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.9,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Roeselare Daisel Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.24,
"market_odds": 2.9,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 11.8,
"prob_edge": 4.0,
"value_pct": 11.5,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Roeselare Daisel or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Roeselare Daisel or Patro Eisden",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Patro Eisden",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Roeselare Daisel or Patro Eisden",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Roeselare Daisel"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 18.4,
"implied_prob": 25.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Patro Eisden",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 46.81,
"draw": 22.35,
"home": 30.83
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 18:01:59",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 17:32:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Roeselare Daisel",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.83,
"gap_pp": 7.63,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.35,
"gap_pp": 7.23,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.81,
"gap_pp": -14.86,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.07,
"gap_pp": -12.87,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.93,
"gap_pp": 12.87,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.87,
"gap_pp": -6.47,
"kind": "btts_y",
"model_pct": 54.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.13,
"gap_pp": 6.47,
"kind": "btts_n",
"model_pct": 45.6
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.9,
"early": 2.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.83,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.0,
"early": 4.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.35,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.91,
"early": 1.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.81,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.07,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.07,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.93,
"kind": "ou_u"
},
{
"closing": 1.53,
"early": 1.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.87,
"kind": "btts_y"
},
{
"closing": 2.38,
"early": 2.38,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.13,
"kind": "btts_n"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0173,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4013,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5987,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5749
},
"p_final": 0.4186,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1862,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4186
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2481,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -24.8,
"text": "-24.8%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.3,
"text": "+24.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2432,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10368.88,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0119,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3819,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"p_final": 0.3937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1035,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.6181,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6018
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1677,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.14,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10126.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0177,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0177,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Roeselare Daisel",
"sort_key": 1795.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 14.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.87,
"hero_label": "Patro Eisden",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"market_team": "Patro Eisden",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Roeselare Daisel",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roeselare Daisel at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roeselare Daisel as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roeselare Daisel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 14.87,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 14.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Roeselare Daisel",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roeselare Daisel at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roeselare Daisel as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roeselare Daisel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Roeselare Daisel 1.37 xG vs Patro Eisden 1.23 \u2192 Roeselare Daisel 38.5%",
"Market: Patro Eisden ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Roeselare Daisel +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Roeselare Daisel with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Roeselare Daisel",
"market_prob": 30.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.22,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.35,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.87,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Patro Eisden",
"market_prob": 46.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.69,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.89,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.69,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.11,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.42,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 61.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.42,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 38.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -14.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Patro Eisden",
"market_prob_pct": 46.81,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Roeselare Daisel"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Patro Eisden\u0027s win probability at 46.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 14.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 14.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Roeselare Daisel",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.7,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Roeselare Daisel 1.37 xG vs Patro Eisden 1.23 \u2192 Roeselare Daisel 38.5%",
"Market: Patro Eisden ~30.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Roeselare Daisel +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Roeselare Daisel with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -14.87,
"hero_label": "Patro Eisden",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Patro Eisden is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Patro Eisden than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Patro Eisden than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Patro Eisden than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Patro Eisden is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Patro Eisden more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Patro Eisden (pricing gap 14.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 14.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Patro Eisden",
"largest_gap_pp": -14.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Patro Eisden higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 14.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.66,
"edge_pp": 7.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Roeselare Daisel",
"market_prob_pct": 30.83,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.22,
"edge_pp": 7.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.35,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.87,
"edge_pp": -14.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Patro Eisden",
"market_prob_pct": 46.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Patro Eisden than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Patro Eisden (30.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Roeselare Daisel, Market \u2192 Patro Eisden, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.36,
"closing_odds": 1.91,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.36,
"entry_odds": 1.91,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.9,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.9,
"pick_team": "Roeselare Daisel",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Roeselare Daisel",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 14.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "patro-eisden",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Patro Eisden",
"away_team_id": 6222,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6222.webp",
"away_team_name": "Patro Eisden",
"away_team_public_id": "2qELoIe1BZX7gn",
"away_team_slug": "patro-eisden",
"country_code": "BE",
"country_display_name": "Belgium",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/be.svg",
"country_id": 16,
"country_name": "Belgium",
"fixture_id": 1635534,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Belgium",
"home_team_display_name": "Roeselare Daisel",
"home_team_id": 16980,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16980.webp",
"home_team_name": "Roeselare Daisel",
"home_team_public_id": "2DUb8Dt2mxNEvt",
"home_team_slug": "roeselare-daisel",
"ht.home_team_slug": "roeselare-daisel",
"league_country": "Belgium",
"league_country_display": "Belgium",
"league_display_name": "Piala Belgium",
"league_id": 147,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/147.webp",
"league_name": "Piala Belgium",
"league_public_id": "2L8RyvMq768OtV",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 18:00:00",
"public_id": "600z40GHTb2WCm",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4662,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0693,
"ev": -0.2382,
"implied_prob": 0.4681,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4681,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.3083
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3988
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1783,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0543,
"implied_prob": 0.2235,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4681,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.3083
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2364
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3985,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4681,
"draw": 0.2235,
"home": 0.3083
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3387
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.2041,
"ev": -0.3898,
"implied_prob": 0.5236,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0459,
"ev": 0.1835,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.9,
"edge": 0.0398,
"ev": 0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.3448,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.16,
"alpha_yes": 0.22,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0742,
"edge_yes": -0.0742,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0472,
"ev_yes": -0.1677,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1003,
"implied_no": 0.3818,
"implied_yes": 0.6182,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.6181,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6018
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3937,
"p_final_yes": 0.6018,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2042,
"alpha_under": 0.1485,
"best_over_odd": 1.56,
"best_under_odd": 2.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.535,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.29,
"edge_over": -0.1169,
"edge_under": 0.1169,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2481,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1176,
"ev_under": 0.2432,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0413,
"implied_over": 0.5989,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5987,
"implied_under": 0.4011,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4013,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5987,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5749
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4186
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5749,
"p_final_under": 0.4186,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 14.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 14.9,
"summary": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2432,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2432,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Roeselare Daisel at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Roeselare Daisel as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Roeselare Daisel",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +24.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Roeselare Daisel, but the model still strongly favours Roeselare Daisel.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0304,
"ev": -0.0177,
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Roeselare Daisel"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0119,
"market_prob": 0.3819,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.16,
"best_odd": 2.42,
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": -0.0472,
"implied_prob": 0.3819,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3937
},
"p_final": 0.3937,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0472,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.22,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0163,
"ev": -0.1003,
"implied_prob": 0.6181,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6018
}
},
"edge": 0.0742,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4013,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.535,
"edge": -0.0238,
"ev": -0.1176,
"implied_prob": 0.5987,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5749
},
"p_final": 0.4186,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0413,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1485,
"best_odd": 2.29,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0413,
"implied_prob": 0.4013,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4186
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1169,
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1635534,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3818,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Patro Eisden",
"home": "Roeselare Daisel"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.088184,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2432,
"implied_prob": 0.4011,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0177,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.9,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3083,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3448275862068966,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1153,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+11.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1635534,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T18:02:02.284661+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Roeselare Daisel & Patro Eisden!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
