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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Nam Dinh Da Nang ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-0 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.67
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Da Nang win · Da Nang 3–0 Nam Dinh
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.4237,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.461,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2926,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.36,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.42,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.52,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"home_win_prob": 0.2837,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Nam Dinh",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Nam Dinh"
},
"away_xg": 1.45,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Nam Dinh",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1247,
"edge_gap": 0.1313,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5483,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 42.4,
"draw": 29.2,
"home": 28.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.67
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.67,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Nam Dinh Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.82,
"market_odds": 1.67,
"model_odds": 2.36,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -17.5,
"value_pct": -29.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 76.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 68.3,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.45,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Da Nang or Draw",
"prob": 57.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Da Nang or Nam Dinh",
"prob": 70.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Nam Dinh",
"prob": 71.7
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Nam Dinh",
"pick_prob": 71.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 42.4,
"draw_pct": 29.3,
"home_pct": 28.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Nam Dinh"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 19.6,
"implied_prob": 23.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Da Nang Win",
"model_prob": 28.4,
"odds": 4.21
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Nam Dinh",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 54.83,
"draw": 23.42,
"home": 21.75
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 10:59:36",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 10:29:35",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Da Nang",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.75,
"gap_pp": 6.65,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.42,
"gap_pp": 5.81,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.83,
"gap_pp": -12.47,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 42.36
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.15,
"gap_pp": -6.95,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.85,
"gap_pp": 6.95,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.21,
"early": 4.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.75,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.91,
"early": 3.91,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.42,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.42,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.83,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.83,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.15,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.09,
"early": 2.09,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.85,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.1,
"ev": -0.008,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.15,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0151,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4462,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2319,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.5538,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5371
},
"p_final": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0671,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0496,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.4462,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.6,
"text": "-17.6%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1396,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10275.64,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1859,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.6,
"text": "-18.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0221,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Nam Dinh",
"sort_key": 1794.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0028,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4489,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4517
},
"p_final": 0.4517,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.055,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.074,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2552,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.548
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0319,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.2,
"text": "-3.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0837,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.4,
"text": "-8.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0319,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"sort_key": 1792.025,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.9
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.46,
"hero_label": "Nam Dinh",
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"market_team": "Nam Dinh",
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"model_team": "Nam Dinh",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1958,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nam Dinh at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nam Dinh as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nam Dinh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nam Dinh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1633895 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.46,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.46,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Da Nang",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1958,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nam Dinh at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nam Dinh as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nam Dinh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nam Dinh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1633895 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Da Nang 1.15 xG vs Nam Dinh 1.45 \u2192 Nam Dinh 42.4%",
"Market: Nam Dinh ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Da Nang +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Nam Dinh with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.62,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Da Nang",
"market_prob": 21.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.84,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.46,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Nam Dinh",
"market_prob": 54.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.38,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.38,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.92,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.82,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.92,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.18,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Nam Dinh",
"market_prob_pct": 54.83,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Da Nang"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nam Dinh\u0027s win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 12.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.46,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nam Dinh",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.4,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Nam Dinh \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Da Nang 1.15 xG vs Nam Dinh 1.45 \u2192 Nam Dinh 42.4%",
"Market: Nam Dinh ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: Da Nang +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Nam Dinh with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.46,
"hero_label": "Nam Dinh",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Nam Dinh is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nam Dinh than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nam Dinh than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Nam Dinh than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Nam Dinh is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Nam Dinh more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Nam Dinh (pricing gap 12.5 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.46,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Nam Dinh",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.5,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nam Dinh higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.5,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 6.62,
"edge_pp": 6.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Da Nang",
"market_prob_pct": 21.75,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.84,
"edge_pp": 5.84,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.42,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.46,
"edge_pp": -12.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nam Dinh",
"market_prob_pct": 54.83,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Nam Dinh than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nam Dinh (54.8%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nam Dinh, Market \u2192 Nam Dinh, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
"closing_odds": 1.67,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
"entry_odds": 1.67,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Da Nang",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Da Nang",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nam-dinh",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nam Dinh",
"away_team_id": 3674,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3674.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nam Dinh",
"away_team_public_id": "0ETBD96ApdVCzT",
"away_team_slug": "nam-dinh",
"country_code": "VN",
"country_display_name": "Vietnam",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/vn.svg",
"country_id": 166,
"country_name": "Vietnam",
"fixture_id": 1633895,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Vietnam",
"home_team_display_name": "Da Nang",
"home_team_id": 3669,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3669.webp",
"home_team_name": "Da Nang",
"home_team_public_id": "3hQ8xzc1ztQRLS",
"home_team_slug": "da-nang",
"ht.home_team_slug": "da-nang",
"league_country": "Vietnam",
"league_country_display": "Vietnam",
"league_display_name": "V.League 1",
"league_id": 340,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/340.webp",
"league_name": "V.League 1",
"league_public_id": "2YXn4VkhgFQj5t",
"league_season": 2027,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 11:00:00",
"public_id": "3zG5GJR4adEFaG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4878,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.1859,
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5483,
"draw": 0.2342,
"home": 0.2175
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4875
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2738,
"best_odd": 3.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0221,
"implied_prob": 0.2342,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5483,
"draw": 0.2342,
"home": 0.2175
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.2501
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.18,
"best_odd": 4.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0339,
"implied_prob": 0.2175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5483,
"draw": 0.2342,
"home": 0.2175
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2295
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.1752,
"ev": -0.2925,
"implied_prob": 0.5988,
"model_prob": 0.4236
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": 0.0366,
"ev": 0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.21,
"edge": 0.0465,
"ev": 0.1958,
"implied_prob": 0.2375,
"model_prob": 0.284
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.232,
"alpha_yes": 0.2552,
"best_no_odd": 2.1,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0092,
"edge_yes": -0.0092,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0319,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.074,
"ev_yes": -0.0837,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0848,
"implied_no": 0.4518,
"implied_yes": 0.5482,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4517
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2552,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.548
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4517,
"p_final_yes": 0.548,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2319,
"alpha_under": 0.2108,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.66,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.06,
"edge_over": -0.0738,
"edge_under": 0.0738,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1758,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1084,
"ev_under": 0.1396,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0496,
"implied_over": 0.5558,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5538,
"implied_under": 0.4442,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4462,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2319,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.5538,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5371
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.4462,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5371,
"p_final_under": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1958,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1396,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1396,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1958,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Nam Dinh at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Nam Dinh as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Nam Dinh",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Nam Dinh \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.31 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +20% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1633895 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.31 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +14.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +14.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Nam Dinh).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +20% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0608,
"ev": -0.1859,
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Nam Dinh"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0028,
"market_prob": 0.4489,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.461,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.232,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0028,
"ev": -0.074,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.4517
},
"p_final": 0.4517,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.074,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2552,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0848,
"implied_prob": 0.5511,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.548
}
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0319,
"implied_prob": 0.4518,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.4462,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2319,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0166,
"ev": -0.1084,
"implied_prob": 0.5538,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5371
},
"p_final": 0.4614,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0496,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2108,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0496,
"implied_prob": 0.4462,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4614
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0738,
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4442,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1633895,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1396,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4236,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.284
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nam Dinh",
"home": "Da Nang"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050619,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1396,
"implied_prob": 0.4442,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-18.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.67,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5483,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5988023952095809,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2926,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-29.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1633895,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T10:59:38.383934+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Da Nang & Nam Dinh!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
V.League 1 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Viettel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Hai Phong | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Ha Noi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Da Nang | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Nam Dinh | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Thanh Hóa | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Hai Phong | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Ho Chi Minh City | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
