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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Lecco U19 Renate B-19 ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-4 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Renate B-19 win · Lecco U19 1–4 Renate B-19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "69b947295869bfeedbd397ec1a42b027769b5e96b104ba7720f9f7eac70fd099",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Renate B-19 and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Renate B-19"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Lecco U19",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1204,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5201,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.73
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.73,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Lecco U19 Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.92,
"market_odds": 1.73,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 11.1,
"prob_edge": -17.8,
"value_pct": -30.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lecco U19 or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lecco U19 or Renate B-19",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Renate B-19",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Lecco U19 or Renate B-19",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Lecco U19"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 14.8,
"implied_prob": 26.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Renate B-19 Win",
"model_prob": 30.6,
"odds": 3.75
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Renate B-19",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.99,
"draw": 23.99,
"home": 52.01
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:59:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 14:33:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Lecco U19",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.01,
"gap_pp": -12.04,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.99,
"gap_pp": 5.48,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.99,
"gap_pp": 6.56,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.28,
"gap_pp": -8.08,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.72,
"gap_pp": 8.08,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.01,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.01,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.99,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.75,
"early": 3.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.99,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.67,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.28,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.28,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.15,
"early": 2.15,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.72,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.0,
"ev": 0.0,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"p_final": 0.4562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0774,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4562
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10252.33,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"p_final": 0.4368,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0357,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0783,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0174,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1312,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.1,
"text": "-13.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0174,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1795.65,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2026,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.3,
"text": "-20.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0336,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Lecco U19",
"sort_key": 1791.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.07,
"hero_label": "Lecco U19",
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"market_team": "Lecco U19",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Lecco U19",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1459,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lecco U19 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lecco U19 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lecco U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lecco U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623570 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2026,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "3/4",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.07,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Lecco U19",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1459,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lecco U19 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lecco U19 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lecco U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lecco U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623570 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2026,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lecco U19 1.40 xG vs Renate B-19 1.20 \u2192 Lecco U19 39.9%",
"Market: Lecco U19 ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Lecco U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lecco U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Lecco U19",
"market_prob": 52.01,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Renate B-19",
"market_prob": 23.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.58,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.78,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.58,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.22,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.7,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.7,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.0,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Lecco U19",
"market_prob_pct": 52.01,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Lecco U19"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Lecco U19\u0027s win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lecco U19",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Lecco U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lecco U19 1.40 xG vs Renate B-19 1.20 \u2192 Lecco U19 39.9%",
"Market: Lecco U19 ~52.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Lecco U19 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lecco U19 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.07,
"hero_label": "Lecco U19",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lecco U19 is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lecco U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lecco U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Lecco U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Lecco U19 is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Lecco U19 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Lecco U19 (pricing gap 12.1 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.07,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Lecco U19",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Lecco U19 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.07,
"edge_pp": -12.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lecco U19",
"market_prob_pct": 52.01,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.49,
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.99,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.59,
"edge_pp": 6.59,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Renate B-19",
"market_prob_pct": 23.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Lecco U19 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lecco U19 (52.0%).",
"Lecco U19 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/4",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "Lecco U19",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Lecco U19",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "renate-u19",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Renate B-19",
"away_team_id": 22405,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22405.webp",
"away_team_name": "Renate B-19",
"away_team_public_id": "2Ttd3zos0EHUbv",
"away_team_slug": "renate-u19",
"country_code": "IT",
"country_display_name": "Italy",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_id": 79,
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1623570,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Italy",
"home_team_display_name": "Lecco U19",
"home_team_id": 26372,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26372.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lecco U19",
"home_team_public_id": "1FibmNzpNxSHNw",
"home_team_slug": "lecco-u19",
"ht.home_team_slug": "lecco-u19",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_country_display": "Italy",
"league_display_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_id": 706,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/706.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato Primavera 2",
"league_public_id": "4gDZbIeLwBb0Ny",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 15:00:00",
"public_id": "4lirXKQE5NivpF",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Lecco",
"venue_name": "Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2705,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0336,
"implied_prob": 0.2399,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2399,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.5201
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.2577
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0436,
"implied_prob": 0.2399,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2399,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.5201
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.255
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4916,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.2026,
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2399,
"draw": 0.2399,
"home": 0.5201
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.4609
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0389,
"ev": 0.1459,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.75,
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.1053,
"implied_prob": 0.2667,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.1784,
"ev": -0.3086,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2163,
"alpha_yes": 0.2379,
"best_no_odd": 2.15,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.027,
"edge_yes": -0.027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0174,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0783,
"ev_yes": -0.1312,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0998,
"implied_no": 0.43,
"implied_yes": 0.57,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4368,
"p_final_yes": 0.5626,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2189,
"alpha_under": 0.199,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.08,
"edge_over": -0.0758,
"edge_under": 0.0758,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1107,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0511,
"implied_over": 0.5578,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5591,
"implied_under": 0.4422,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4409,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4562
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5423,
"p_final_under": 0.4562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1459,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1137,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1459,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lecco U19 at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lecco U19 as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lecco U19",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Lecco U19 \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1623570 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.4% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+11.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lecco U19).",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2026,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0592,
"ev": -0.2026,
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lecco U19"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"market_prob": 0.4313,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2163,
"best_odd": 2.11,
"edge": 0.0056,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.4313,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4368
},
"p_final": 0.4368,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0783,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2379,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0061,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.5687,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5626
}
},
"edge": 0.027,
"ev": -0.0174,
"implied_prob": 0.43,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"market_prob": 0.4409,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.5591,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5423
},
"p_final": 0.4562,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0511,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.199,
"best_odd": 2.08,
"edge": 0.0153,
"ev": -0.0511,
"implied_prob": 0.4409,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4562
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0758,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1623570,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Renate B-19",
"home": "Lecco U19"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4422,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2026,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5201,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5780346820809249,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3085,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1623570,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T14:59:41.610211+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Lecco U19 & Renate B-19!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Campionato Primavera 2 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perugia U19 | 3 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Catanzaro U19 | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 9 |
| 3 | Modena Bawah 19 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Benevento U19 | 3 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 5 | Avellino U19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Renate B-19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 7 | Bari Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 8 | Palermo B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Cremonese U19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 10 | Virtus Entella B-19 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cittadella Bawah 19 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Sampdoria U19 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 13 | Venezia U19 | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | Vicenza U19 | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 15 | Padova Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 | Spezia B-19 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 17 | Monopoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 18 | Pescara U19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 19 | Brescia Bawah 19 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Latina Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 21 | Pisa U19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Udinese B-19 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Mantova Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 25 | Ascoli Bawah 19 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 26 | Frosinone U19 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 |
| 27 | Reggiana U19 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 28 | Lecco U19 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Cosenza Bawah 19 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 0 |
| 30 | Salernitana B-19 | 3 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 0 |
| 31 | Sudtirol Bawah 19 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 32 | Pro Vercelli U19 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
