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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 San Giovanni Cailungo ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Cailungo win · San Giovanni 0–3 Cailungo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "172af79f5b6ef28088c5261e32fe45ccf9f416986d14cf37395245afd4af1737",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3148,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.57,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.38,
"home_win_prob": 0.3897,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : San Giovanni or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "San Giovanni"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "San Giovanni",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1214,
"edge_gap": 0.0747,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5111,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.5,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 39.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.74
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.74,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "San Giovanni Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.96,
"market_odds": 1.74,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": -18.6,
"value_pct": -32.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 74.8,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 1.38,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "San Giovanni or Draw",
"prob": 68.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "San Giovanni or Cailungo",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Cailungo",
"prob": 61.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "San Giovanni or Cailungo",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.5,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "San Giovanni"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 21.6,
"implied_prob": 25.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Cailungo Win",
"model_prob": 31.5,
"odds": 3.86
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Cailungo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.04,
"draw": 25.85,
"home": 51.11
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 13:06:18",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 12:38:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "San Giovanni",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.11,
"gap_pp": -12.14,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.85,
"gap_pp": 3.69,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.54
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.04,
"gap_pp": 8.45,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.88,
"gap_pp": -3.68,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.12,
"gap_pp": 3.68,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.74,
"early": 1.74,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.11,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.44,
"early": 3.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.85,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.86,
"early": 3.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.04,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.79,
"early": 1.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.88,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.12,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.12,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.38,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0076,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4823,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5177,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5093
},
"p_final": 0.4899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0158,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0692,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0692,
"implied_prob": 0.4823,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4899
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1372,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.7,
"text": "-13.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.2,
"text": "+6.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0619,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10205.71,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2144,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.4,
"text": "-21.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0252,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.5,
"text": "-2.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "San Giovanni",
"sort_key": 1793.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2458,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0012,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.5393,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4597
},
"p_final": 0.5405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0752,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2458,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5405
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.088,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.8,
"text": "-8.8%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0752,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.5,
"text": "-7.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0752,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 1781.2,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.14,
"hero_label": "San Giovanni",
"market_prob_pct": 51.1,
"market_team": "San Giovanni",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "San Giovanni",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2156,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Giovanni at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Giovanni as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Giovanni",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Giovanni \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619856 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/6",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.14,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.14,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.38,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.38,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.38 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "San Giovanni",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2156,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Giovanni at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Giovanni as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Giovanni",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Giovanni \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619856 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Giovanni 1.38 xG vs Cailungo 1.22 \u2192 San Giovanni 39.0%",
"Market: San Giovanni ~51.1% implied",
"Market Steam: San Giovanni +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Giovanni with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.14,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "San Giovanni",
"market_prob": 51.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Cailungo",
"market_prob": 23.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.88,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.88,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.55,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.55,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "San Giovanni",
"market_prob_pct": 51.11,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "San Giovanni"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates San Giovanni\u0027s win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.14,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "San Giovanni",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.1,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "San Giovanni \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: San Giovanni 1.38 xG vs Cailungo 1.22 \u2192 San Giovanni 39.0%",
"Market: San Giovanni ~51.1% implied",
"Market Steam: San Giovanni +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean San Giovanni with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.14,
"hero_label": "San Giovanni",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about San Giovanni than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about San Giovanni than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about San Giovanni than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors San Giovanni more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on San Giovanni (pricing gap 12.1 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.14,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "San Giovanni",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices San Giovanni higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.14,
"edge_pp": -12.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "San Giovanni",
"market_prob_pct": 51.11,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.69,
"edge_pp": 3.69,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.85,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.44,
"edge_pp": 8.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cailungo",
"market_prob_pct": 23.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about San Giovanni than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers San Giovanni (51.1%).",
"San Giovanni \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.47,
"closing_odds": 1.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.47,
"entry_odds": 1.74,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/6",
"current_odds": 1.83,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.83,
"pick_team": "San Giovanni",
"steam_score": 11,
"steam_team_name": "San Giovanni",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "cailungo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 1,
"away_team_display_name": "Cailungo",
"away_team_id": 5297,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5297.webp",
"away_team_name": "Cailungo",
"away_team_public_id": "5x7J8AOCB5T5W8",
"away_team_slug": "cailungo",
"country_code": "SM",
"country_display_name": "San-Marino",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sm.svg",
"country_id": 134,
"country_name": "San-Marino",
"fixture_id": 1619856,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "San-Marino",
"home_team_display_name": "San Giovanni",
"home_team_id": 5307,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5307.webp",
"home_team_name": "San Giovanni",
"home_team_public_id": "20nY6ExzIvEoMY",
"home_team_slug": "san-giovanni",
"ht.home_team_slug": "san-giovanni",
"league_country": "San-Marino",
"league_country_display": "San-Marino",
"league_display_name": "Campionato San Marino",
"league_id": 404,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/404.webp",
"league_name": "Campionato San Marino",
"league_public_id": "0tbhW3KSx0XwrH",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 13:00:00",
"public_id": "3ocidmB3wrxUEn",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.262,
"best_odd": 3.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0252,
"implied_prob": 0.2304,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2304,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.5111
},
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.2525
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0105,
"ev": -0.0747,
"implied_prob": 0.2585,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2304,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.5111
},
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.269
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4907,
"best_odd": 1.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.2144,
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2304,
"draw": 0.2585,
"home": 0.5111
},
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.4515
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.86,
"edge": 0.0559,
"ev": 0.2156,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"model_prob": 0.3149
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": 0.0162,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2954
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.74,
"edge": -0.185,
"ev": -0.322,
"implied_prob": 0.5747,
"model_prob": 0.3897
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2234,
"alpha_yes": 0.2458,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0055,
"edge_yes": 0.0055,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.088,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0853,
"ev_yes": -0.0752,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0812,
"implied_no": 0.4615,
"implied_yes": 0.5385,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4597
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2458,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5405
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4597,
"p_final_yes": 0.5405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2342,
"alpha_under": 0.2129,
"best_over_odd": 1.79,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.77,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.9,
"edge_over": -0.0388,
"edge_under": 0.0388,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1372,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0985,
"ev_under": 0.0619,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0692,
"implied_over": 0.5208,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5177,
"implied_under": 0.4792,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4823,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5177,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5093
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0692,
"implied_prob": 0.4823,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4899
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5093,
"p_final_under": 0.4899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2156,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0619,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0619,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2156,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates San Giovanni at 39.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies San Giovanni as the value side (39.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "San Giovanni",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side San Giovanni \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.35 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1619856 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.35 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (San Giovanni).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 2.2,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.16"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.16
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0596,
"ev": -0.2144,
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "San Giovanni"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2458,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0012,
"market_prob": 0.5393,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2234,
"best_odd": 1.99,
"edge": -0.0011,
"ev": -0.0853,
"implied_prob": 0.4607,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.4597
},
"p_final": 0.5405,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2458,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": 0.0012,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5393,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.5405
}
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0752,
"implied_prob": 0.5385,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4823,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.77,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.5177,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5093
},
"p_final": 0.4899,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0692,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0692,
"implied_prob": 0.4823,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4899
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1619856,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0619,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3149,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3897
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Cailungo",
"home": "San Giovanni"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022445,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0619,
"implied_prob": 0.4792,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2144,
"consensus_ev_display": "-21.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.74,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5111,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5747126436781609,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3219,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1619856,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T13:06:19.958102+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Campionato San Marino — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Virtus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Domagnano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | La Fiorita | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Libertas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Murata | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Giovanni | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 4 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 9 |
| 2 | Folgore | 4 | 10 | 1 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 | Tre Penne | 4 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 |
| 4 | Cosmos | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Domagnano | 4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pennarossa | 4 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 3 |
| 7 | Virtus | 4 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 | Juvenes / Dogana | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | La Fiorita | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 10 | Libertas | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Fiorentino | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Cailungo | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | San Giovanni | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 4 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 2 |
