Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cádiz II Pozoblanco ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.65
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Pozoblanco win · Cádiz II 0–1 Pozoblanco
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "22c1dc2fc4178368a52648c76e3b10b514246b027eb9fc7c412d10b5692d4dfc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2969,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.37,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.44,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"home_win_prob": 0.4091,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : C\u00e1diz II or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "C\u00e1diz II"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1387,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5482,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 29.7,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 41.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.65
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.65,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "C\u00e1diz II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.82,
"market_odds": 1.65,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -19.6,
"value_pct": -32.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 75.8,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.42,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "C\u00e1diz II or Draw",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "C\u00e1diz II or Pozoblanco",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Pozoblanco",
"prob": 59.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "C\u00e1diz II or Pozoblanco",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 29.7,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 40.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "C\u00e1diz II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 42.3,
"implied_prob": 20.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Pozoblanco Win",
"model_prob": 29.7,
"odds": 4.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Pozoblanco",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 18.88,
"draw": 26.29,
"home": 54.82
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 14:15:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:53:01",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "C\u00e1diz II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.82,
"gap_pp": -13.87,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 40.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.29,
"gap_pp": 3.1,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 18.88,
"gap_pp": 10.77,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.79,
"gap_pp": 1.41,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.21,
"gap_pp": -1.41,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 54.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 54.82,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.44,
"early": 3.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.29,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.79,
"early": 4.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 18.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 18.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 46.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 46.79,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.75,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 53.21,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 53.21,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 10.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.07,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.42,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0126,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.4795,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5067
},
"p_final": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0279,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0652,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4795,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.492
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.183,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.3,
"text": "-18.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0279,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.8,
"text": "+2.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0279,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 5222.32,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2042,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.009,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.9,
"text": "-0.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"sort_key": 1797.75,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0601,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0782,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0119,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.2,
"text": "-1.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.3,
"text": "-9.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0119,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1797.025,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"market_team": "C\u00e1diz II",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "C\u00e1diz II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00e1diz II at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00e1diz II as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00e1diz II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side C\u00e1diz II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1615486 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2042,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/5",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (14 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.91,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.42,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.42 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "C\u00e1diz II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00e1diz II at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00e1diz II as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00e1diz II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side C\u00e1diz II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1615486 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2042,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00e1diz II 1.42 xG vs Pozoblanco 1.18 \u2192 C\u00e1diz II 40.9%",
"Market: C\u00e1diz II ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: C\u00e1diz II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00e1diz II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"market_prob": 54.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.11,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.81,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Pozoblanco",
"market_prob": 18.88,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.46,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.74,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.46,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.26,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.15,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.15,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "C\u00e1diz II",
"market_prob_pct": 54.82,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "C\u00e1diz II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates C\u00e1diz II\u0027s win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 54.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "C\u00e1diz II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: C\u00e1diz II 1.42 xG vs Pozoblanco 1.18 \u2192 C\u00e1diz II 40.9%",
"Market: C\u00e1diz II ~54.8% implied",
"Market Steam: C\u00e1diz II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean C\u00e1diz II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that C\u00e1diz II is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00e1diz II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00e1diz II than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00e1diz II than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that C\u00e1diz II is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors C\u00e1diz II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on C\u00e1diz II (pricing gap 13.9 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices C\u00e1diz II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.91,
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "C\u00e1diz II",
"market_prob_pct": 54.82,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.11,
"edge_pp": 3.11,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.29,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 10.81,
"edge_pp": 10.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pozoblanco",
"market_prob_pct": 18.88,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about C\u00e1diz II than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers C\u00e1diz II (54.8%).",
"C\u00e1diz II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.61,
"closing_odds": 1.65,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.61,
"entry_odds": 1.65,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/5",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "C\u00e1diz II",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "C\u00e1diz II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "pozoblanco",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Pozoblanco",
"away_team_id": 9763,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9763.webp",
"away_team_name": "Pozoblanco",
"away_team_public_id": "5XXsmmwDgaWuA9",
"away_team_slug": "pozoblanco",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1615486,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "C\u00e1diz II",
"home_team_id": 9598,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9598.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u00e1diz II",
"home_team_public_id": "1v6Ofq6bPkjo11",
"home_team_slug": "cadiz-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cadiz-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 10",
"league_id": 448,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/448.webp",
"league_name": "Tercera Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 10",
"league_public_id": "329Omm4p4OwN0N",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "2zQuPMK1fKq6pp",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1677,
"best_odd": 4.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0181,
"ev": -0.009,
"implied_prob": 0.1888,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1888,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.5482
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2069
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2861,
"best_odd": 3.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.2629,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1888,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.5482
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2718
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4752,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2042,
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1888,
"draw": 0.2629,
"home": 0.5482
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4823
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.79,
"edge": 0.0878,
"ev": 0.4204,
"implied_prob": 0.2088,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.44,
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": 0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.2907,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": -0.1965,
"ev": -0.3242,
"implied_prob": 0.6061,
"model_prob": 0.4096
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2247,
"alpha_yes": 0.2042,
"best_no_odd": 1.78,
"best_yes_odd": 1.9,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0615,
"edge_yes": 0.0615,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.183,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1132,
"ev_yes": 0.0279,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0652,
"implied_no": 0.5205,
"implied_yes": 0.4795,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5067
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4795,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.492
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.5067,
"p_final_yes": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.221,
"alpha_under": 0.2431,
"best_over_odd": 2.05,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.73,
"edge_over": 0.0146,
"edge_under": -0.0146,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0119,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0782,
"ev_under": -0.0935,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0883,
"implied_over": 0.4674,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4701,
"implied_under": 0.5326,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5299,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4727,
"p_final_under": 0.527,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4204,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0279,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 4.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0279,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4204,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates C\u00e1diz II at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 54.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies C\u00e1diz II as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "C\u00e1diz II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side C\u00e1diz II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.47 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +42% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1615486 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.47 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +2.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +2.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +2.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +2.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+2.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"Decision strength: 4.9/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +42% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (C\u00e1diz II).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2042,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0279,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4795,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0659,
"ev": -0.2042,
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u00e1diz II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0126,
"market_prob": 0.4795,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2247,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.0138,
"ev": -0.1132,
"implied_prob": 0.5205,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.5067
},
"p_final": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0652,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2042,
"best_odd": 1.9,
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": -0.0652,
"implied_prob": 0.4795,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.492
}
},
"edge": 0.0615,
"ev": 0.0279,
"implied_prob": 0.4795,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"market_prob": 0.4701,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.221,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": 0.0026,
"ev": -0.0782,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.4727
},
"p_final": 0.4727,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0782,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2431,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0029,
"ev": -0.0883,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.527
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0146,
"ev": -0.0119,
"implied_prob": 0.4674,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1615486,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0279,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2965,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.4096
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Pozoblanco",
"home": "C\u00e1diz II"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2042,
"consensus_ev_display": "-20.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5482,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.6060606060606061,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3242,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-32.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1615486,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T14:15:20.045339+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Kumpulan 10 — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Portuense | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Betis C | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tomares | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Egabrense | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Pozoblanco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Xerez Deportivo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Utrera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Cádiz II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Ceuta II | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Linense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sevilla III | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Conil | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | San Roque Lepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betis C | 3 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 7 |
| 2 | Dos Hermanas | 4 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Egabrense | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Portuense | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 5 | Pozoblanco | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Tomares | 4 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Xerez Deportivo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Cádiz II | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Utrera | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Linense | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Sevilla III | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Recreativo Huelva | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Ceuta II | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Bollullos | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Córdoba II | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Chiclana | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | San Roque Lepe | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Conil | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
