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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Al Wahda U23 Al Wahda U23 ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Al Wahda U23 win · Al Wahda U23 3–2 Al Dhafra B-23
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Al Wahda U23 and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Al Wahda U23"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1347,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4956,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.78
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"overround": 13.4,
"prob_edge": -20.1,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Al Wahda U23 or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al Wahda U23 or Al Dhafra B-23",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Al Dhafra B-23",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Al Wahda U23 or Al Dhafra B-23",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Al Wahda U23"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.4,
"implied_prob": 27.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Al Dhafra B-23 Win",
"model_prob": 34.2,
"odds": 3.58
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.64,
"draw": 25.8,
"home": 49.56
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 13:49:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-07 13:19:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Al Wahda U23",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 49.56,
"gap_pp": -13.47,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.8,
"gap_pp": 3.87,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.64,
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.95,
"gap_pp": -8.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.05,
"gap_pp": 8.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.78,
"early": 1.78,
"implied_closing_pct": 49.56,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 49.56,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.42,
"early": 3.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.8,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.58,
"early": 3.58,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.64,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0194,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.422,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5566
},
"p_final": 0.4414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4414
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.3,
"text": "+23.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2328,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10359.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0218,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.2326,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.3,
"text": "-23.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0296,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.0,
"text": "-3.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"sort_key": 1792.6,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.45,
"hero_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"market_team": "Al Wahda U23",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Al Wahda U23",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wahda U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wahda U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wahda U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2326,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 13.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 13.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Al Wahda U23",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wahda U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wahda U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wahda U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2326,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Wahda U23 1.32 xG vs Al Dhafra B-23 1.28 \u2192 Al Wahda U23 36.1%",
"Market: Al Wahda U23 ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Wahda U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Wahda U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -13.45,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Al Wahda U23",
"market_prob": 49.56,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.85,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.6,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"market_prob": 24.64,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.68,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.68,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.6,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.1,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.9,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Al Wahda U23",
"market_prob_pct": 49.56,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Al Wahda U23"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Al Wahda U23\u0027s win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Al Wahda U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 32,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Al Wahda U23 1.32 xG vs Al Dhafra B-23 1.28 \u2192 Al Wahda U23 36.1%",
"Market: Al Wahda U23 ~49.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Al Wahda U23 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Al Wahda U23 with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.45,
"hero_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Al Wahda U23 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Al Wahda U23 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Al Wahda U23 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Al Wahda U23 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Al Wahda U23 (pricing gap 13.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 13.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Al Wahda U23",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Al Wahda U23 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -13.45,
"edge_pp": -13.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Al Wahda U23",
"market_prob_pct": 49.56,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.85,
"edge_pp": 3.85,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.8,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.6,
"edge_pp": 9.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"market_prob_pct": 24.64,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Al Wahda U23 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Al Wahda U23 (49.6%).",
"Al Wahda U23 \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 1.57,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.57,
"pick_team": "Al Wahda U23",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Al Wahda U23",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": null,
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"away_team_id": 27487,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"away_team_public_id": "3h9kYl7aQGzu96",
"away_team_slug": null,
"country_code": "AE",
"country_display_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ae.svg",
"country_id": 161,
"country_name": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"fixture_id": 1601114,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Al Wahda U23",
"home_team_id": 27491,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Al Wahda U23",
"home_team_public_id": "0VrDz1nTw70YKq",
"home_team_slug": null,
"ht.home_team_slug": null,
"league_country": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_country_display": "United-Arab-Emirates",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro B-23 UAE",
"league_id": 1218,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1218.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro B-23 UAE",
"league_public_id": "3wiTQNHVCRPM1F",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-07 13:50:00",
"public_id": "3DHnbtM7BdGORG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2568,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0246,
"ev": -0.0296,
"implied_prob": 0.2464,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2464,
"draw": 0.258,
"home": 0.4956
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.2711
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2826,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0804,
"implied_prob": 0.258,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2464,
"draw": 0.258,
"home": 0.4956
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2689
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4788,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.2326,
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2464,
"draw": 0.258,
"home": 0.4956
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.4311
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.58,
"edge": 0.0631,
"ev": 0.2258,
"implied_prob": 0.2793,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.42,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": 0.0146,
"implied_prob": 0.2924,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.2009,
"ev": -0.3575,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2154,
"alpha_yes": 0.237,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.026,
"edge_yes": -0.026,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0695,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0934,
"implied_no": 0.429,
"implied_yes": 0.571,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4328,
"p_final_yes": 0.5666,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2225,
"alpha_under": 0.2022,
"best_over_odd": 1.64,
"best_under_odd": 2.38,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.57,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0968,
"edge_under": 0.0968,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2095,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1261,
"ev_under": 0.2328,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0509,
"implied_over": 0.5788,
"implied_over_mf": 0.578,
"implied_under": 0.4212,
"implied_under_mf": 0.422,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5566
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4414
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5566,
"p_final_under": 0.4414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2328,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2328,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Al Wahda U23 at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Al Wahda U23 as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Al Wahda U23",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +23.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +23.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +23.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+23.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"Decision strength: 4.6/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Al Wahda U23).",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2326,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0645,
"ev": -0.2326,
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al Wahda U23"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2154,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0061,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4328
},
"p_final": 0.4328,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0695,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.237,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0067,
"ev": -0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5666
}
},
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.429,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.422,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2225,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.1261,
"implied_prob": 0.578,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5566
},
"p_final": 0.4414,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0509,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2022,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.0509,
"implied_prob": 0.422,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4414
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0968,
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1601114,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2328,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al Dhafra B-23",
"home": "Al Wahda U23"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084413,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.4212,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.2326,
"consensus_ev_display": "-23.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4956,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3576,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-35.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1601114,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-07T13:49:06.632741+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro B-23 UAE — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain B-23 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Ajman U23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Al Sharjah B-23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Al Wahda U23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Jazira B-23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | United FC U23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Al Wasl B-23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Hatta B-23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Al Dhafra B-23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Khorfakkan U23 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Al Nasr U23 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Bani Yas B-23 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain B-23 | 5 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Al Wahda U23 | 4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 9 |
| 3 | Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai U23 | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | Al Dhafra B-23 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Sharjah B-23 | 4 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 | Ittihad Kalba U23 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Hatta B-23 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Nasr U23 | 5 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | United FC U23 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | Ajman U23 | 5 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 | Al Jazira B-23 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Al Wasl B-23 | 5 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Bani Yas B-23 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 0 |
| 14 | Khorfakkan U23 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
