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Dayrout vs El Entag El Harby Statistics & Analysis

Sep 18, 2026 - 13:30
0 1.41
3 1.19
xG Accuracy: 41%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Dayrout El Entag El Harby ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-3 ✖ tak betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 11, 2026 · 03:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7992808

Closing Odds 3.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result El Entag El Harby win · Dayrout 0–3 El Entag El Harby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Ayunan implisit lewat terbesar pada suapan ini kira-kira 3.98 mata peratus pada El Entag El Harby (1X2) antara PRE30 dan PRE1.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Dayrout (1X2) kira-kira 17.0 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Dayrout (1X2) 40.5 23.5 +17.0
Lukis (1X2) 29.4 29.6 -0.1
El Entag El Harby (1X2) 30.1 47.0 -16.9
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 39.2 +9.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 60.8 -9.0
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 40.5% pada Dayrout (1X2), manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 23.5%. Bezanya — kira-kira 17.0 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Dayrout (1X2) 3.57 3.9 -2.2
Lukis (1X2) 2.92 3.1 -1.8
El Entag El Harby (1X2) 2.13 1.95 +4.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.63 2.37 +3.9
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.44 1.53 -3.9

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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        },
        "ev_available": true,
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          "text": "-22.1%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.1382,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
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          "text": "+13.8%"
        },
        "featured": false,
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        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.2
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "value_alert",
        "authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
        "consensus_odds": 3.9,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "ev": 0.0641,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
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        },
        "featured": false,
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        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": 0.0641,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
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          "text": "+6.4%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
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      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "6/7",
        "alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +3.3%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 16.9,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 16.94,
        "hero_label": "Dayrout",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.5,
        "market_team": "El Entag El Harby",
        "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
        "model_team": "Dayrout",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 47,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
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            "key": "market_disagree",
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            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
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          {
            "key": "steam",
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            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 17.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
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        },
        "authority": {
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          "alignment": {
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            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.5787,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate",
          "decision_strength": 6.8,
          "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
          "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
          "execution_confidence": 52,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (40.5%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 17.0,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Execution confidence below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25c6",
          "label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
          "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Dayrout",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": null,
            "codes": [
              "market_quality"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": null,
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "66 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "52 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 7,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp.",
            "Decision strength: 6.8/10",
            "Execution confidence below 65",
            "Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 66,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "lean",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": 0.0641,
            "consensus_ev_display": "+6.4%",
            "consensus_odds": 3.9,
            "disagreement_label": "Strong",
            "disagreement_level": "strong",
            "implied_prob": 0.2348,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 4.4,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.22
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "value_alert",
        "books_breadth_display": "6/7",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 80,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 16.5,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 8.6,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 66,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 16.94,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 16.94,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.19,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.41,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.41,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.41 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": true,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
        "steam_team": "Draw",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 52,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 15,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 40,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 15,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "value_alert",
            "label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 17.0,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "value_alert",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 17.0,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": false,
              "pricing_key": "low",
              "probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
              "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.5787,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 6.8,
            "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
            "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
            "execution_confidence": 52,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (40.5%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 17.0,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Execution confidence below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25c6",
            "label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
            "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Dayrout",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": null,
              "codes": [
                "market_quality"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": null,
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "66 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "52 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 7,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp.",
              "Decision strength: 6.8/10",
              "Execution confidence below 65",
              "Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 66,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "lean",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": 0.0641,
              "consensus_ev_display": "+6.4%",
              "consensus_odds": 3.9,
              "disagreement_label": "Strong",
              "disagreement_level": "strong",
              "implied_prob": 0.2348,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4048,
              "raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 4.4,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.22
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25c6",
          "label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "tier": "lean"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Dayrout 1.41 xG vs El Entag El Harby 1.19 \u2192 Dayrout 40.4%",
            "Market: El Entag El Harby ~23.5% implied",
            "Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Dayrout, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 16.94,
          "fair_prob": 40.42,
          "label": "Dayrout",
          "market_prob": 23.48,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.11,
          "fair_prob": 29.44,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.55,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -16.83,
          "fair_prob": 30.14,
          "label": "El Entag El Harby",
          "market_prob": 46.97,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.64,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 38.56,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.64,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 61.44,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.11,
          "fair_prob": 54.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 45.09,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -9.11,
          "fair_prob": 45.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.91,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 16.94,
        "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Dayrout",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.48,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Dayrout\u0027s win probability at 40.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 16.94,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Dayrout",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 23.5,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 16.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+16.9 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 16.9,
            "label": "Low convergence",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 66,
          "reliability_tier": "moderate",
          "summary": "Dayrout \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+16.9 pp).",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 52,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 15,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 40,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 15,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "value_alert",
              "label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Dayrout 1.41 xG vs El Entag El Harby 1.19 \u2192 Dayrout 40.4%",
              "Market: El Entag El Harby ~23.5% implied",
              "Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Dayrout, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 16.94,
        "hero_label": "Dayrout",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dayrout.",
          "note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dayrout.",
            "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Dayrout more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Draw."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 16.94,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Dayrout",
          "largest_gap_pp": 16.9,
          "lead": "The model rates Dayrout considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 16.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 16.94,
            "edge_pp": 16.94,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Dayrout",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.48,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -0.11,
            "edge_pp": -0.11,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.55,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -16.83,
            "edge_pp": -16.83,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "El Entag El Harby",
            "market_prob_pct": 46.97,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers El Entag El Harby (23.5%).",
          "Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.3%, 6/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Dayrout, Market \u2192 El Entag El Harby, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 25.64,
        "closing_odds": 3.9,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
        "entry_odds": 3.9,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 6,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.2
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 7,
        "breadth_display": "6/7",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.1,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 3.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 27m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Betfair led repricing on Draw (3.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "3.10",
            "3.01",
            "2.92"
          ],
          "display": "3.10 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.10",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 32h 27m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.10"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            3.0,
            3.1,
            2.92,
            3.1
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,10.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.92"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "3.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.10"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 6/7 sportsbooks on Draw",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 3.1,
          "is_drift": true,
          "label": "Market Signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
          "open_odds": 3.0,
          "summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Draw",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 47,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/7",
        "current_odds": 3.1,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 47,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 16.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "El Entag El Harby",
      "away_team_id": 1034,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1034.webp",
      "away_team_name": "El Entag El Harby",
      "away_team_public_id": "21WmOOuefYGtVO",
      "away_team_slug": "el-entag-el-harby",
      "country_code": "EG",
      "country_display_name": "Egypt",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/eg.svg",
      "country_id": 47,
      "country_name": "Egypt",
      "fixture_id": 1594832,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Egypt",
      "home_team_display_name": "Dayrout",
      "home_team_id": 18022,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18022.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Dayrout",
      "home_team_public_id": "46i7yz3PRwSgq0",
      "home_team_slug": "dayrout",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "dayrout",
      "league_country": "Egypt",
      "league_country_display": "Egypt",
      "league_display_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
      "league_id": 887,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/887.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga Kedua Mesir",
      "league_public_id": "0eLiV01E20e1LN",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-09-17 13:30:00",
      "public_id": "5aX3ejGOqfd4sh",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4483,
            "best_odd": 1.95,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0756,
            "ev": -0.2314,
            "implied_prob": 0.4697,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4697,
              "draw": 0.2955,
              "home": 0.2348
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3012,
            "p_final": 0.3941
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2994,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0004,
            "ev": -0.0854,
            "implied_prob": 0.2955,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4697,
              "draw": 0.2955,
              "home": 0.2348
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2941,
            "p_final": 0.295
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2235,
            "best_odd": 3.9,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.038,
            "ev": 0.0641,
            "implied_prob": 0.2348,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.4697,
              "draw": 0.2955,
              "home": 0.2348
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4048,
            "p_final": 0.2728
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 1.95,
            "edge": -0.2117,
            "ev": -0.4128,
            "implied_prob": 0.5128,
            "model_prob": 0.3012
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "edge": -0.0285,
            "ev": -0.0884,
            "implied_prob": 0.3226,
            "model_prob": 0.2941
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 3.9,
            "edge": 0.1484,
            "ev": 0.5787,
            "implied_prob": 0.2564,
            "model_prob": 0.4048
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2141,
          "alpha_yes": 0.1947,
          "best_no_odd": 1.7,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.1,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.0911,
          "edge_yes": 0.0911,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2214,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1145,
          "ev_yes": 0.1382,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0467,
          "implied_no": 0.5491,
          "implied_yes": 0.4509,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2141,
              "best_odd": 1.675,
              "edge": -0.0193,
              "ev": -0.1145,
              "implied_prob": 0.5479,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5287
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1947,
              "best_odd": 2.03,
              "edge": 0.0175,
              "ev": -0.0467,
              "implied_prob": 0.4521,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4696
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 4,
          "p_final_no": 0.5287,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4696,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.1563,
          "alpha_under": 0.2149,
          "best_over_odd": 2.63,
          "best_under_odd": 1.53,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.32,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
          "edge_over": 0.0964,
          "edge_under": -0.0964,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.2677,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0535,
          "ev_under": -0.2075,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1138,
          "implied_over": 0.3856,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.3943,
          "implied_under": 0.6144,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.6057,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1563,
              "best_odd": 2.32,
              "edge": 0.0137,
              "ev": -0.0535,
              "implied_prob": 0.3943,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.408
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2149,
              "best_odd": 1.51,
              "edge": -0.0189,
              "ev": -0.1138,
              "implied_prob": 0.6057,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5869
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.408,
          "p_final_under": 0.5869,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.5787,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2677,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.8,
        "score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.8,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.8,
        "score_pre_penalty": 6.8
      },
      "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "value_alert",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "value_alert",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 17.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 17.0,
          "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.2677,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.5787,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 6.8,
        "decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 6.8,
        "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
        "execution_confidence": 52,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Dayrout at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.5%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Dayrout as the value side (40.5%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 17.0,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Execution confidence below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25c6",
        "label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
        "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Dayrout",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": null,
          "codes": [
            "market_quality"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": null,
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Dayrout \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.28 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +58% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1594832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.28 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +26.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +26.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Execution confidence below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +26.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +26.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "66 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "52 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+26.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 7,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market favour the same side (Dayrout), but pricing still diverges by 17.0 pp.",
          "Decision strength: 6.8/10",
          "Execution confidence below 65",
          "Outlier price +58% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 66,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "lean",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": 0.0641,
          "consensus_ev_display": "+6.4%",
          "consensus_odds": 3.9,
          "disagreement_label": "Strong",
          "disagreement_level": "strong",
          "implied_prob": 0.2348,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 4.4,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.22
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.2941,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.22
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 3.9,
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.038,
          "ev": 0.0641,
          "implied_prob": 0.2348,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.4048,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Dayrout"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1947,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.03,
            "edge": 0.0175,
            "market_prob": 0.4521,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.542,
            "n_bookmakers": 4,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2141,
              "best_odd": 1.675,
              "edge": -0.0193,
              "ev": -0.1145,
              "implied_prob": 0.5479,
              "model_prob": 0.458,
              "p_final": 0.5287
            },
            "p_final": 0.4696,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0467,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.1947,
              "best_odd": 2.03,
              "edge": 0.0175,
              "ev": -0.0467,
              "implied_prob": 0.4521,
              "model_prob": 0.542,
              "p_final": 0.4696
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.0911,
          "ev": 0.1382,
          "implied_prob": 0.4509,
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.1563,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.32,
            "edge": 0.0137,
            "market_prob": 0.3943,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.1563,
              "best_odd": 2.32,
              "edge": 0.0137,
              "ev": -0.0535,
              "implied_prob": 0.3943,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.408
            },
            "p_final": 0.408,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0535,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2149,
              "best_odd": 1.51,
              "edge": -0.0189,
              "ev": -0.1138,
              "implied_prob": 0.6057,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5869
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.0964,
          "ev": 0.2677,
          "implied_prob": 0.3856,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1594832,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2677,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3012,
        "draw": 0.2941,
        "home": 0.4048
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1382,
        "implied_prob": 0.4509,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.542,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1382,
          "implied_prob": 0.4509,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "show_betting_primary_label": false,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "El Entag El Harby",
        "home": "Dayrout"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.090322,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2677,
        "implied_prob": 0.3856,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": 0.0641,
        "consensus_ev_display": "+6.4%",
        "consensus_odds": 3.9,
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "implied_prob": 0.2348,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4048,
        "raw_edge_display": "+17.0 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 17.0,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.5787,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.9%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1594832,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-17T13:29:13.133131+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Langgan Sekarang
Kembali ke Statistik
Liga Kedua Mesir Liga Kedua Mesir — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Masar 6 5 1 0 16
2 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 4 2 0 14
3 Kahraba Ismailia 6 4 1 1 13
4 Haras El Hodood 5 4 1 0 13
5 Pharco 6 4 1 1 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 2 3 1 9
7 Itesalat 5 3 0 2 9
8 Tersana 5 2 2 1 8
9 El Mansura 6 2 2 2 8
10 Team 6 2 1 3 7
11 Tanta SC 5 2 1 2 7
12 El Seka El Hadid 6 2 1 3 7
13 El Entag El Harby 5 1 3 1 6
14 El Dakhleya 6 1 3 2 6
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 1 1 3 4
16 La Viena FC 5 0 3 2 3
17 Proxy 6 1 0 5 3
18 Mega Sport 5 0 2 3 2
19 Ismaily SC 5 0 2 3 2
20 Dayrout 5 0 0 5 0
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Masar 6 13 3 +10 16
2 Kahraba Ismailia 6 11 4 +7 13
3 Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat 6 8 2 +6 14
4 Haras El Hodood 5 8 2 +6 13
5 Pharco 6 8 5 +3 13
6 AL Nasr SC 6 7 4 +3 9
7 Itesalat 5 7 5 +2 9
8 El Entag El Harby 5 7 5 +2 6
9 El Mansura 6 6 7 -1 8
10 Team 6 6 7 -1 7
11 El Seka El Hadid 6 6 9 -3 7
12 Tersana 5 4 4 0 8
13 Tanta SC 5 4 5 -1 7
14 Ismaily SC 5 4 9 -5 2
15 Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 5 3 5 -2 4
16 La Viena FC 5 3 5 -2 3
17 El Dakhleya 6 3 6 -3 6
18 Mega Sport 5 3 6 -3 2
19 Proxy 6 2 7 -5 3
20 Dayrout 5 0 13 -13 0