Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Argentina Argentina ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.13
AI Fair Odds
2.33
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Argentina win · England 1–2 Argentina
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 42.9%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=3)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.3.1",
"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.232,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.571,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.506,
"away_win_prob": 0.4287375391964549,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.197,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.4419,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.5581,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2859515883774169,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.232,
"fair_odds_away": 2.33,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 5.08,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.5,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.194,
"home_win_prob": 0.2853108724261287,
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"model_name": "wc_elo_poisson",
"over_25_prob": 0.5064,
"prediction_confidence": "medium",
"source": "worldcup-poisson",
"under_25_prob": 0.4936
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Argentina",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Argentina",
"percent_away": "42.9%",
"percent_draw": "28.6%",
"percent_home": "28.5%",
"winner_name": "Argentina"
},
"away_xg": 1.5062343463459833,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Argentina",
"confidence": 42.9,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "Winner : Argentina",
"edge": 0.1179,
"edge_gap": 0.1434,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.311,
"model_prob": 0.4289,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 42.9,
"draw": 28.6,
"home": 28.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.13
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"display_market": "Argentina Win",
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.22,
"market_odds": 3.13,
"model_odds": 2.33,
"overround": 2.7,
"prob_edge": 11.0,
"value_pct": 34.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 77.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 69.7,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 55.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 55.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.51,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.1
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "England or Draw",
"prob": 57.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "England or Argentina",
"prob": 71.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Argentina",
"prob": 71.5
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Argentina",
"pick_prob": 71.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 42.9,
"draw_pct": 28.6,
"home_pct": 28.5,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Argentina"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.7,
"away_avg_scored": 2.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.2,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 34.3,
"implied_prob": 31.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Argentina Win",
"model_prob": 42.9,
"odds": 3.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Argentina",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 31.1,
"draw": 33.11,
"home": 35.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-15 18:59:19",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-15 18:29:28",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "England",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.79,
"gap_pp": -7.29,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 28.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.11,
"gap_pp": -4.51,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.1,
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 42.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.52,
"gap_pp": 12.08,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 50.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.48,
"gap_pp": -12.08,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 49.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.11,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.13,
"early": 3.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 31.1,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 31.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.52,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.52,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.56,
"early": 1.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.48,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.48,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
}
},
"home_xg": 1.1937656536540173,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "1xBet",
"best_odds": 2.82,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home England",
"edge": -6.9,
"ev": 75.2,
"probability": 28.6
},
"market_cards": [
{
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0646,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.5,
"text": "+6.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"max_ev": 0.0646,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.5,
"text": "+6.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4289,
"side_label": "Argentina",
"sort_key": 10208.14,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 44.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 55.8
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 50.6,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 49.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.8,
"hero_label": "Argentina",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"market_team": "England",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "Argentina",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"execution_confidence": 52,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"model_lean": "Argentina",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.1,
"data_quality": 20.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 66,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"mv_status": "warning",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"execution_confidence": 52,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"model_lean": "Argentina",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: England 1.19 xG vs Argentina 1.51 \u2192 Argentina 42.9%",
"Market: England ~31.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Argentina, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.29,
"fair_prob": 28.5,
"label": "England",
"market_prob": 35.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob": 28.6,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.8,
"fair_prob": 42.9,
"label": "Argentina",
"market_prob": 31.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 55.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 44.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 11.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.9,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Argentina",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "wc_poisson",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Argentina\u0027s win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 11.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "high",
"fair_confidence_label": "High",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Argentina",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 66,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 52,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "candidate",
"label": "Candidate +EV"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: England 1.19 xG vs Argentina 1.51 \u2192 Argentina 42.9%",
"Market: England ~31.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Draw \u2193 -4.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Argentina, but sharp money moved toward Draw.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 11.8,
"hero_label": "Argentina",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -4.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentina.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Argentina.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 4.0%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Argentina more strongly than current market pricing.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 4.0%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 14.3 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 14.3,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Argentina",
"largest_gap_pp": 11.8,
"lead": "The model rates Argentina considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.8,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.29,
"edge_pp": -7.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "England",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.51,
"edge_pp": -4.51,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.6,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.11,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 11.8,
"edge_pp": 11.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Argentina",
"market_prob_pct": 31.1,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 4.0%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers England (31.1%).",
"Draw has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -4.0%, 8/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Argentina, Market \u2192 England, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 31.95,
"closing_odds": 3.13,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 31.95,
"entry_odds": 3.13,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Market support on Draw (4.0%) \u2014 8/13 books shortening the line.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.00",
"2.94",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.13 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 50m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.13"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
2.94,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,9.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Efficient",
"phase_tip": "Stable consensus \u2014 limited edge from further drift.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u2197",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward Draw while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_support",
"signal_label": "Market support",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -4.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 32,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Argentina",
"away_team_id": 26,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/26.webp",
"away_team_name": "Argentina",
"country_code": null,
"country_flag": null,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1586077,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "England",
"home_team_id": 10,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10.webp",
"home_team_name": "England",
"league_country": "World",
"league_display_name": "FIFA Piala Dunia",
"league_id": 1,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1.webp",
"league_name": "FIFA Piala Dunia",
"league_name_canonical": "Piala Dunia",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-15 19:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Atlanta",
"venue_name": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2469,
"best_odd": 3.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.311,
"draw": 0.3311,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.4289,
"p_final": 0.3401
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4192,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0191,
"ev": -0.0827,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.311,
"draw": 0.3311,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.2855,
"p_final": 0.312
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4012,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1055,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.311,
"draw": 0.3311,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.2855,
"p_final": 0.3289
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.13,
"edge": 0.1094,
"ev": 0.3425,
"implied_prob": 0.3195,
"model_prob": 0.4289
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.94,
"edge": -0.0546,
"ev": -0.1605,
"implied_prob": 0.3401,
"model_prob": 0.2855
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0821,
"ev": -0.2233,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.2855
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.3.1"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3425,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0646,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.7
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0646,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3425,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"execution_confidence": 52,
"gates_failed": [
"Decision strength below 7"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"model_lean": "Argentina",
"outlier_detected": true,
"primary_allowed": false,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Decision strength below 7",
"Outlier price +34% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 66,
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Draw, but the model still strongly favours Argentina.",
"tier": "observe",
"version": "v1"
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.558,
"draw_prob": 0.2855,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4289,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.312
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.13,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0291,
"ev": 0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4289,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Argentina"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.558,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1586077,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0646,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4289,
"draw": 0.2855,
"home": 0.2855
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Argentina",
"home": "England"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027707,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0646,
"implied_prob": 0.311,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4289,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Argentina",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1586077,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-15T19:36:48.252688+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Piala Dunia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Afrika Selatan | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Korea Selatan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Afrika Selatan | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Korea Selatan | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | 3 | 6.6 | 3.8 | +2.8 | 9 |
| 2 | Korea Selatan | 3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | +1.6 | 3 |
| 3 | Afrika Selatan | 3 | 2.7 | 4.7 | -2.0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | 2.4 | 5.4 | -3.0 | 1 |
