Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Marítimo Moreirense ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.87
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Moreirense win · Moreirense 3–1 Marítimo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3889,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3188,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.2923,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.22,
"away_win_prob": 0.3889,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3889,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.54,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.46,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3188,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3188,
"fair_odds_away": 2.57,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.57,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.14,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.14,
"fair_odds_home": 3.42,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 3.42,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.99,
"home_win_prob": 0.2923,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.2923,
"over_25_prob": 0.38,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.62
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Moreirense or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Moreirense"
},
"away_xg": 1.22,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0319,
"edge_gap": 0.0706,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3573,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.9,
"draw": 31.8,
"home": 29.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.71
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.71,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Mar\u00edtimo Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.8,
"market_odds": 2.71,
"model_odds": 2.57,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 2.0,
"value_pct": 5.4,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 5,
"away_score_rate": 70.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 62.8,
"no_prob": 54.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 46.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.22,
"home_expected": 0.99,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Moreirense or Draw",
"prob": 61.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Moreirense or Mar\u00edtimo",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mar\u00edtimo",
"prob": 70.8
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Mar\u00edtimo",
"pick_prob": 70.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.9,
"draw_pct": 31.9,
"home_pct": 29.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Mar\u00edtimo"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.21,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 38.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.21,
"under_prob": 62.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.4,
"implied_prob": 36.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Mar\u00edtimo Win",
"model_prob": 38.9,
"odds": 2.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.73,
"draw": 30.54,
"home": 33.73
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 19:14:17",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 18:45:09",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Moreirense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.73,
"gap_pp": -4.49,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 29.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.54,
"gap_pp": 1.31,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.85
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.73,
"gap_pp": 3.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.91
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.0,
"gap_pp": -3.0,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 38.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.0,
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 62.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.87,
"early": 2.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.73,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.54,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.54,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.73,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.73,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.36,
"early": 2.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.0,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.64,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.0,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 59.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.1,
"ev": 0.005,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.134,
"model_prob_pct": 13.4,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.99,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.5814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.62,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.277,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.4079
},
"p_final": 0.5961,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0044,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"p_final": 0.5961
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1032,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0354,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.5,
"text": "+3.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0354,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 38.0,
"sort_key": 10031.86,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 62.0,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0112,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.5081,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.5081,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5192
},
"p_final": 0.5192,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0118,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.4919,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4808
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.6,
"text": "+2.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.103,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.3,
"text": "-10.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.026,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 54.0,
"sort_key": 5220.8,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 46.0
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": 0.0052,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0052,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"sort_key": 5204.16,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 820.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 4.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.5,
"hero_label": "Moreirense",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"market_team": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"model_prob_pct": 38.9,
"model_team": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0545,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mar\u00edtimo at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mar\u00edtimo as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "1/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.07692307692307693,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 0.8,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 4.5,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.22,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.99,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.22,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.99 \u00b7 Away xG 1.22 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0545,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mar\u00edtimo at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mar\u00edtimo as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Moreirense 0.99 xG vs Mar\u00edtimo 1.22 \u2192 Mar\u00edtimo 38.9%",
"Market: Mar\u00edtimo ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mar\u00edtimo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob": 29.23,
"label": "Moreirense",
"market_prob": 33.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob": 31.88,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.16,
"fair_prob": 38.89,
"label": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"market_prob": 35.73,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.82,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.82,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.15,
"fair_prob": 46.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.15,
"fair_prob": 54.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.23,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Moreirense",
"market_prob_pct": 33.73,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Mar\u00edtimo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 84,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Moreirense 0.99 xG vs Mar\u00edtimo 1.22 \u2192 Mar\u00edtimo 38.9%",
"Market: Mar\u00edtimo ~35.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Mar\u00edtimo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -4.5,
"hero_label": "Moreirense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.2%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (1/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.0 pp (at 38.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.0,
"max_prob_pct": 38.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Moreirense",
"largest_gap_pp": -4.5,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 4.5,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.5,
"edge_pp": -4.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.23,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Moreirense",
"market_prob_pct": 33.73,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.34,
"edge_pp": 1.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.88,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.54,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.16,
"edge_pp": 3.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.89,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"market_prob_pct": 35.73,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mar\u00edtimo (35.7%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.2%, 1/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Mar\u00edtimo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.84,
"closing_odds": 2.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.84,
"entry_odds": 2.87,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.30 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20) \u2014 net 3.2% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.15",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.30 \u2192 2.90 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 58m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.17,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/13",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 7,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 4.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maritimo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"away_team_id": 214,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/214.webp",
"away_team_name": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"away_team_public_id": "38HC14ELk2EQed",
"away_team_slug": "maritimo",
"country_code": "PT",
"country_display_name": "Portugal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_id": 129,
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1575497,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Portugal",
"home_team_display_name": "Moreirense",
"home_team_id": 215,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/215.webp",
"home_team_name": "Moreirense",
"home_team_public_id": "11xpBNi72ZZRy0",
"home_team_slug": "moreirense",
"ht.home_team_slug": "moreirense",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_country_display": "Portugal",
"league_display_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_id": 94,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/94.webp",
"league_name": "Primeira Liga",
"league_public_id": "3MSXUknHDsucZ6",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 19:15:00",
"public_id": "5f6yXsmfbYhdR9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Moreira de Conegos",
"venue_name": "Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4285,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3573,
"draw": 0.3054,
"home": 0.3373
},
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"p_final": 0.3709
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2941,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0038,
"ev": -0.0197,
"implied_prob": 0.3054,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3573,
"draw": 0.3054,
"home": 0.3373
},
"model_prob": 0.3185,
"p_final": 0.3093
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4197,
"best_odd": 2.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0189,
"ev": -0.086,
"implied_prob": 0.3373,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3573,
"draw": 0.3054,
"home": 0.3373
},
"model_prob": 0.2924,
"p_final": 0.3185
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.0201,
"ev": 0.0545,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.3891
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": 0.0096,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.3185
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.87,
"edge": -0.056,
"ev": -0.1608,
"implied_prob": 0.3484,
"model_prob": 0.2924
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3499,
"alpha_yes": 0.3499,
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0315,
"edge_yes": -0.0315,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.026,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0498,
"ev_yes": -0.103,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0914,
"implied_no": 0.5085,
"implied_yes": 0.4915,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.5081,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5192
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.4919,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4808
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5192,
"p_final_yes": 0.4808,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.277,
"alpha_under": 0.3808,
"best_over_odd": 2.36,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
"edge_over": -0.0382,
"edge_under": 0.0382,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1032,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0822,
"ev_under": 0.0354,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"implied_over": 0.4182,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4186,
"implied_under": 0.5818,
"implied_under_mf": 0.5814,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.277,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.4079
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"p_final": 0.5961
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4079,
"p_final_under": 0.5961,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.21,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0545,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0354,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"score": 6.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 4.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 4.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0545,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Mar\u00edtimo at 38.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Mar\u00edtimo as the value side (38.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Mar\u00edtimo).",
"Decision strength: 6.0/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -9.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.23
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.46,
"draw_prob": 0.3185,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3891,
"over_prob": 0.38,
"total_xg": 2.21,
"under_prob": 0.62,
"xg_diff": 0.23
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0354,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5818,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.62,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0137,
"ev": 0.0052,
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Mar\u00edtimo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0112,
"market_prob": 0.5081,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.54,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.83,
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0498,
"implied_prob": 0.5081,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"p_final": 0.5192
},
"p_final": 0.5192,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0498,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3499,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.0112,
"ev": -0.0914,
"implied_prob": 0.4919,
"model_prob": 0.46,
"p_final": 0.4808
}
},
"edge": 0.0315,
"ev": 0.026,
"implied_prob": 0.5085,
"model_prob": 0.54,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.5814,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.62,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.277,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0822,
"implied_prob": 0.4186,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.4079
},
"p_final": 0.5961,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.3808,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"p_final": 0.5961
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": 0.0354,
"implied_prob": 0.5818,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1575497,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0354,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3891,
"draw": 0.3185,
"home": 0.2924
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mar\u00edtimo",
"home": "Moreirense"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0052,
"consensus_ev_display": "+0.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.71,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3573,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3891,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.36900369003690037,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0545,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1575497,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T19:20:44.972892+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primeira Liga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Estrela | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Arouca | 7 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Alverca | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 7 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | SC Braga | 6 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 7 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Estoril | 7 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 7 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 8.2 | 1.7 | +6.5 | 16 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 7 | 9.0 | 3.6 | +5.4 | 21 |
| 3 | Guimaraes | 7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | +3.9 | 5 |
| 4 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5.4 | 1.6 | +3.8 | 8 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 7.3 | 3.7 | +3.6 | 15 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | +3.2 | 15 |
| 7 | SC Braga | 6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Marítimo | 7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 9 | Estrela | 7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | -0.8 | 10 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 7 | 3.3 | 4.2 | -0.9 | 7 |
| 11 | Arouca | 7 | 4.8 | 6.4 | -1.6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alverca | 7 | 3.9 | 5.5 | -1.6 | 8 |
| 13 | Nacional | 7 | 4.6 | 7.5 | -2.9 | 4 |
| 14 | Estoril | 7 | 3.3 | 6.2 | -2.9 | 2 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 7 | 1.0 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 7 | 2.3 | 6.3 | -4.0 | 4 |
| 17 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 4.8 | 9.0 | -4.2 | 11 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 7 | 2.4 | 8.3 | -5.9 | 4 |
