Estepona vs Don Benito Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.17,
      "away_win_prob": 0.2925,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.459,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2936,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 3.42,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.41,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.42,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.43,
      "home_win_prob": 0.414,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Don Benito",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Don Benito"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.17,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Estepona",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": -0.0584,
        "edge_gap": 0.1201,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4721,
        "model_prob": 0.4137,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 29.3,
          "draw": 29.4,
          "home": 41.4
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.94
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.94,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Estepona Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.12,
        "market_odds": 1.94,
        "model_odds": 2.42,
        "overround": 9.2,
        "prob_edge": -10.2,
        "value_pct": -19.8,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 3,
        "away_failed_to_score": 1,
        "away_played": 4,
        "away_score_rate": 69.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 3,
        "home_score_rate": 76.1,
        "no_prob": 45.9,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 54.1
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.17,
        "home_expected": 1.43,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 10.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.9
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 8.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 7.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Estepona or Draw",
            "prob": 70.8
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Estepona or Don Benito",
            "prob": 70.6
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Don Benito",
            "prob": 58.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Estepona or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 70.8
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 29.2,
        "draw_pct": 29.4,
        "home_pct": 41.4,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Estepona"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.5,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 15.0,
        "implied_prob": 25.4,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Don Benito Win",
        "model_prob": 29.2,
        "odds": 3.94
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Don Benito",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 23.25,
        "draw": 29.54,
        "home": 47.21
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 16:59:26",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 16:29:57",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Estepona",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 47.21,
          "gap_pp": -5.84,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 41.37
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 29.54,
          "gap_pp": -0.19,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.36
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 23.25,
          "gap_pp": 6.03,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 29.27
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 42.82,
          "gap_pp": 5.38,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 57.18,
          "gap_pp": -5.38,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.94,
          "early": 1.94,
          "implied_closing_pct": 47.21,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 47.21,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.1,
          "early": 3.1,
          "implied_closing_pct": 29.54,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 29.54,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.94,
          "early": 3.94,
          "implied_closing_pct": 23.25,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 23.25,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.19,
          "early": 2.19,
          "implied_closing_pct": 42.82,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 42.82,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.64,
          "early": 1.64,
          "implied_closing_pct": 57.18,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 57.18,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 6.0,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -0.8,
        "ev": -0.0638,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 7.55,
        "market_prob": 0.1325,
        "market_prob_pct": 13.2,
        "model_prob": 0.124,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.4,
        "n_bookmakers": 5,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.4
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.4
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 10.6
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.9
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 8.7
        },
        {
          "label": "2-0",
          "prob": 7.6
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.43,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.2074,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 2.15,
          "edge": 0.0108,
          "edge_pp": 1.1,
          "market_prob": 0.4297,
          "mode": "market_first_ou",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "over": {
            "alpha": 0.2074,
            "best_odd": 2.15,
            "edge": 0.0108,
            "ev": -0.0528,
            "implied_prob": 0.4297,
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "p_final": 0.4406
          },
          "p_final": 0.4406,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0363,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.0528,
          "under": {
            "alpha": 0.2281,
            "best_odd": 1.62,
            "edge": -0.0119,
            "ev": -0.0954,
            "implied_prob": 0.5703,
            "model_prob": 0.518,
            "p_final": 0.5584
          },
          "value_side": "over"
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.0604,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 6.0,
          "text": "+6.0%"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.1349,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -13.5,
          "text": "-13.5%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.0604,
        "n_bookmakers": 6,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 10204.36,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "alpha": 0.2049,
          "available": true,
          "consensus_odds": 1.88,
          "edge": 0.0122,
          "edge_pp": 1.2,
          "market_prob": 0.4814,
          "mode": "market_first_btts",
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "no": {
            "alpha": 0.2254,
            "best_odd": 1.745,
            "edge": -0.0134,
            "ev": -0.1185,
            "implied_prob": 0.5186,
            "model_prob": 0.459,
            "p_final": 0.5052
          },
          "p_final": 0.4936,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "raw_edge_pp": 6.0,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.0171,
          "risk_adj_ev": -0.072,
          "value_side": "yes",
          "yes": {
            "alpha": 0.2049,
            "best_odd": 1.88,
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "ev": -0.072,
            "implied_prob": 0.4814,
            "model_prob": 0.541,
            "p_final": 0.4936
          }
        },
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.1738,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -17.4,
          "text": "-17.4%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.0441,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 4.4,
          "text": "+4.4%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0441,
        "n_bookmakers": 5,
        "no_prob": 45.9,
        "sort_key": 10039.69,
        "tier": "best",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.1
      },
      {
        "authority_action": "primary",
        "consensus_odds": 1.94,
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "ev": -0.1462,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -14.6,
          "text": "-14.6%"
        },
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4721,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": -0.0193,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -1.9,
          "text": "-1.9%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.4137,
        "raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.1974,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%",
        "show_primary_label": true,
        "side_label": "Estepona",
        "sort_key": 1795.175,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.2,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.4
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "",
        "alert_breadth_note": "",
        "alert_move": "",
        "alert_team": "",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 6.0,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 6.0,
        "hero_label": "Don Benito",
        "market_prob_pct": 47.2,
        "market_team": "Estepona",
        "model_prob_pct": 41.4,
        "model_team": "Estepona",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
        "steam_score": null,
        "steam_subtitle": "",
        "steam_tier": "",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 6.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona)."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "primary",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 6.0,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona)."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.1533,
          "confidence_band": "High",
          "decision_strength": 7.0,
          "decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
          "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
          "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
          "execution_confidence": 86,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": true,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estepona at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.2%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Estepona as the value side (41.4%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                "tone": "ok"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 5.8,
          "gates_failed": [],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Estepona",
          "no_primary_reasons": null,
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Estepona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572985 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": true,
          "primary_block_explain": null,
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "ok"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "82 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "86 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 8,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona).",
            "Decision strength: 7.0/10",
            "Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 82,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Reliability supports action",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "actionable",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": -0.1462,
            "consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
            "consensus_odds": 1.94,
            "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
            "disagreement_level": "moderate",
            "implied_prob": 0.4721,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.4137,
            "raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
            "raw_signal_ev": -0.1974,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "calibration_status": "ok",
            "deviation_pct": 5.9,
            "reasons": [],
            "recommended_action": "ok",
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "ok",
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "separation_score": 0,
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.26
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "primary",
        "books_breadth_display": "5/9",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 75,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam detected",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation passed",
              "status": "pass"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Pass",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 22.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 5.6,
            "steam_coherence": 7.0,
            "validation": 30.0
          },
          "score": 82,
          "stars": 4,
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 6.0,
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "max_gap_pp": 6.0,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.17,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 6.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.43,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.43,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.43 \u00b7 Away xG 1.17 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +6%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "pass",
        "odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
        "steam_conflicts": null,
        "steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
        "steam_team": "Estepona",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 86,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 71,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 41,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Market Compatibility",
            "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
            "score": 71,
            "tier": "high",
            "tier_label": "High"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "primary",
            "label": "Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona).",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": true,
            "direction_key": "agree",
            "gap_pp": 6.0,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": true,
            "pricing_key": "moderate",
            "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "primary",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": true,
              "direction_key": "agree",
              "gap_pp": 6.0,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": true,
              "pricing_key": "moderate",
              "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.1533,
            "confidence_band": "High",
            "decision_strength": 7.0,
            "decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
            "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
            "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
            "execution_confidence": 86,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": true,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estepona at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.2%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Estepona as the value side (41.4%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
                  "tone": "ok"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 5.8,
            "gates_failed": [],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u2713",
            "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Estepona",
            "no_primary_reasons": null,
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Estepona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572985 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": true,
            "primary_block_explain": null,
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "82 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "86 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 8,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona).",
              "Decision strength: 7.0/10",
              "Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 82,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Reliability supports action",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "actionable",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": -0.1462,
              "consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
              "consensus_odds": 1.94,
              "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
              "disagreement_level": "moderate",
              "implied_prob": 0.4721,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.4137,
              "raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
              "raw_signal_ev": -0.1974,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": false,
              "calibration_status": "ok",
              "deviation_pct": 5.9,
              "reasons": [],
              "recommended_action": "ok",
              "strength_delta": 0.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "ok",
                "block_value_alert": false,
                "separation_score": 0,
                "strength_delta": 0.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.26
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u2713",
          "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
          "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
          "tier": "actionable"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Estepona 1.43 xG vs Don Benito 1.17 \u2192 Estepona 41.4%",
            "Market: Estepona ~47.2% implied",
            "Market Steam: Estepona +0.0%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estepona with no major conflict.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.81,
          "fair_prob": 41.4,
          "label": "Estepona",
          "market_prob": 47.21,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.18,
          "fair_prob": 29.36,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 29.54,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.0,
          "fair_prob": 29.25,
          "label": "Don Benito",
          "market_prob": 23.25,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 5.04,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 43.16,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -5.04,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 56.84,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.1,
          "fair_prob": 54.1,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 48.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -6.1,
          "fair_prob": 45.9,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 52.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 6.0,
        "fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Don Benito",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.25,
        "status": "mild_value",
        "steam_team_name": "Estepona"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Don Benito\u0027s win probability at 29.2%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.2%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "mild_value",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Estepona",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 47.2,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": -5.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 41.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": -5.8,
            "label": "Moderate",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "High reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_score": 82,
          "reliability_tier": "high",
          "summary": "Estepona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 86,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 71,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 41,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Market Compatibility",
              "note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
              "score": 71,
              "tier": "high",
              "tier_label": "High"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "primary",
              "label": "Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Estepona 1.43 xG vs Don Benito 1.17 \u2192 Estepona 41.4%",
              "Market: Estepona ~47.2% implied",
              "Market Steam: Estepona +0.0%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model and market both lean Estepona with no major conflict.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 6.0,
        "hero_label": "Don Benito",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Don Benito.",
          "note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Don Benito.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Don Benito."
          ],
          "quiet_market": true,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Don Benito.",
            "No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 6.0,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.0 pp (at 41.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 12.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 41.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "moderate",
          "largest_gap_label": "Don Benito",
          "largest_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "lead": "The model rates Don Benito considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "moderate",
          "max_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "title": "Moderate Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -5.81,
            "edge_pp": -5.81,
            "fair_prob_pct": 41.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Estepona",
            "market_prob_pct": 47.21,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -0.18,
            "edge_pp": -0.18,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.36,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 6.0,
            "edge_pp": 6.0,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Don Benito",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.25,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_higher",
            "signal_label": "Model Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "mild_value",
        "status_label": "Mild Value",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Don Benito.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Estepona (47.2%).",
          "Estepona \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 25.38,
        "closing_odds": 3.94,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.38,
        "entry_odds": 3.94,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "5/9",
        "current_odds": 2.0,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.0,
        "pick_team": "Estepona",
        "steam_score": 17,
        "steam_team_name": "Estepona",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 6.0,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "at2.away_team_slug": "don-benito",
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Don Benito",
      "away_team_id": 5259,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5259.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Don Benito",
      "away_team_public_id": "5rREH6Eoi5S6Vf",
      "away_team_slug": "don-benito",
      "country_code": "ES",
      "country_display_name": "Spain",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_id": 145,
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1572985,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Spain",
      "home_team_display_name": "Estepona",
      "home_team_id": 15358,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15358.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Estepona",
      "home_team_public_id": "2z2F8GaQwcXUgJ",
      "home_team_slug": "estepona",
      "ht.home_team_slug": "estepona",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_country_display": "Spain",
      "league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
      "league_id": 878,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/878.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n RFEF - Kumpulan 4",
      "league_public_id": "3uGTsqWqb9LWmy",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-10-03 17:00:00",
      "public_id": "2kztM3ZjVvAbm4",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2729,
            "best_odd": 3.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0164,
            "ev": -0.0193,
            "implied_prob": 0.2325,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2325,
              "draw": 0.2954,
              "home": 0.4721
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2927,
            "p_final": 0.2489
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2992,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0006,
            "ev": -0.0858,
            "implied_prob": 0.2954,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2325,
              "draw": 0.2954,
              "home": 0.4721
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2936,
            "p_final": 0.2949
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5474,
            "best_odd": 1.94,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.032,
            "ev": -0.1462,
            "implied_prob": 0.4721,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2325,
              "draw": 0.2954,
              "home": 0.4721
            },
            "model_prob": 0.4137,
            "p_final": 0.4401
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 3.94,
            "edge": 0.0389,
            "ev": 0.1533,
            "implied_prob": 0.2538,
            "model_prob": 0.2927
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "edge": -0.029,
            "ev": -0.0899,
            "implied_prob": 0.3226,
            "model_prob": 0.2936
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.94,
            "edge": -0.1018,
            "ev": -0.1974,
            "implied_prob": 0.5155,
            "model_prob": 0.4137
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "alpha_no": 0.2254,
          "alpha_yes": 0.2049,
          "best_no_odd": 1.8,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.93,
          "btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "edge_no": -0.061,
          "edge_yes": 0.061,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.1738,
          "ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1185,
          "ev_yes": 0.0441,
          "ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.072,
          "implied_no": 0.52,
          "implied_yes": 0.48,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2254,
              "best_odd": 1.745,
              "edge": -0.0134,
              "ev": -0.1185,
              "implied_prob": 0.5186,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.5052
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2049,
              "best_odd": 1.88,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.072,
              "implied_prob": 0.4814,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.4936
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "p_final_no": 0.5052,
          "p_final_yes": 0.4936,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "alpha_over": 0.2074,
          "alpha_under": 0.2281,
          "best_over_odd": 2.2,
          "best_under_odd": 1.67,
          "consensus_over_odd": 2.15,
          "consensus_under_odd": 1.62,
          "edge_over": 0.0504,
          "edge_under": -0.0504,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.0604,
          "ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0528,
          "ev_under": -0.1349,
          "ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0954,
          "implied_over": 0.4316,
          "implied_over_mf": 0.4297,
          "implied_under": 0.5684,
          "implied_under_mf": 0.5703,
          "market_first": {
            "available": true,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2074,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.0108,
              "ev": -0.0528,
              "implied_prob": 0.4297,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4406
            },
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2281,
              "best_odd": 1.62,
              "edge": -0.0119,
              "ev": -0.0954,
              "implied_prob": 0.5703,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5584
            }
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
          "p_final_over": 0.4406,
          "p_final_under": 0.5584,
          "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.1533,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
      "confidence": 5.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.0,
        "score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 7.0,
        "score_pre_penalty": 7.0
      },
      "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "primary",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "primary",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": true,
          "direction_key": "agree",
          "gap_pp": 6.0,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": true,
          "pricing_key": "moderate",
          "probability_gap_pp": 6.0,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.1533,
        "confidence_band": "High",
        "decision_strength": 7.0,
        "decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
        "decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
        "decision_type": "PRIMARY",
        "execution_confidence": 86,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": true,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Estepona at 41.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.2%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Estepona as the value side (41.4%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 5.8,
        "gates_failed": [],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u2713",
        "label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Estepona",
        "no_primary_reasons": null,
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Estepona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.39 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +15% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1572985 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.39 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": true,
        "primary_block_explain": null,
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.0/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "ok"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "82 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "86 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 8,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": "market_confirmed",
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Estepona).",
          "Decision strength: 7.0/10",
          "Outlier price +15% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 82,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Reliability supports action",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "actionable",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": -0.1462,
          "consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
          "consensus_odds": 1.94,
          "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
          "disagreement_level": "moderate",
          "implied_prob": 0.4721,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.4137,
          "raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
          "raw_signal_ev": -0.1974,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": false,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": 5.9,
          "reasons": [],
          "recommended_action": "ok",
          "strength_delta": 0.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "ok",
            "block_value_alert": false,
            "separation_score": 0,
            "strength_delta": 0.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.26
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2936,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4137,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.26
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "hero_mode": "default",
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 1.94,
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.032,
          "ev": -0.1462,
          "implied_prob": 0.4721,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4137,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Estepona"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2049,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 1.88,
            "edge": 0.0122,
            "market_prob": 0.4814,
            "mode": "market_first_btts",
            "model_prob": 0.541,
            "n_bookmakers": 5,
            "no": {
              "alpha": 0.2254,
              "best_odd": 1.745,
              "edge": -0.0134,
              "ev": -0.1185,
              "implied_prob": 0.5186,
              "model_prob": 0.459,
              "p_final": 0.5052
            },
            "p_final": 0.4936,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.072,
            "value_side": "yes",
            "yes": {
              "alpha": 0.2049,
              "best_odd": 1.88,
              "edge": 0.0122,
              "ev": -0.072,
              "implied_prob": 0.4814,
              "model_prob": 0.541,
              "p_final": 0.4936
            }
          },
          "edge": 0.061,
          "ev": 0.0441,
          "implied_prob": 0.48,
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "decision_layer": {
            "alpha": 0.2074,
            "available": true,
            "consensus_odds": 2.15,
            "edge": 0.0108,
            "market_prob": 0.4297,
            "mode": "market_first_ou",
            "model_prob": 0.482,
            "n_bookmakers": 6,
            "over": {
              "alpha": 0.2074,
              "best_odd": 2.15,
              "edge": 0.0108,
              "ev": -0.0528,
              "implied_prob": 0.4297,
              "model_prob": 0.482,
              "p_final": 0.4406
            },
            "p_final": 0.4406,
            "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
            "risk_adj_ev": -0.0528,
            "under": {
              "alpha": 0.2281,
              "best_odd": 1.62,
              "edge": -0.0119,
              "ev": -0.0954,
              "implied_prob": 0.5703,
              "model_prob": 0.518,
              "p_final": 0.5584
            },
            "value_side": "over"
          },
          "edge": 0.0504,
          "ev": 0.0604,
          "implied_prob": 0.4316,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1572985,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.2927,
        "draw": 0.2936,
        "home": 0.4137
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "show_betting_primary_label": true,
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Don Benito",
        "home": "Estepona"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.020379,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0604,
        "implied_prob": 0.4316,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2,
      "value_context_1x2": {
        "consensus_ev": -0.1462,
        "consensus_ev_display": "-14.6%",
        "consensus_odds": 1.94,
        "disagreement_label": "Moderate",
        "disagreement_level": "moderate",
        "implied_prob": 0.4721,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "model_prob": 0.4137,
        "raw_edge_display": "-5.8 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": -5.8,
        "raw_implied_prob": 0.5154639175257733,
        "raw_signal_ev": -0.1974,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "-19.7%"
      }
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1572985,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T16:59:28.454483+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}