Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Villarreal Real Betis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Real Betis win · Villarreal 1–2 Real Betis
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "92aefd594afbc27de45a6105a03765f3ffd3a3c0183e1d669686c5c0ad8ec0cb",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"away_win_prob": 0.2197,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.392,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.608,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2474,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 4.55,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.04,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.88,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.93,
"home_win_prob": 0.5329,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.603,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.397
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Real Betis and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Villarreal",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Real Betis"
},
"away_xg": 1.19,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Villarreal",
"confidence": 53.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Villarreal",
"edge": 0.0506,
"edge_gap": 0.2846,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4817,
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 22.0,
"draw": 24.8,
"home": 53.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Villarreal"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.02
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Villarreal Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.08,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 1.88,
"overround": 2.8,
"prob_edge": 3.7,
"value_pct": 7.4,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 4,
"away_score_rate": 69.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 4,
"home_score_rate": 85.5,
"no_prob": 39.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 60.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 60.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.19,
"home_expected": 1.93,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Villarreal or Draw",
"prob": 78.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Villarreal or Real Betis",
"prob": 75.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Real Betis",
"prob": 46.7
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Villarreal or Draw",
"pick_prob": 78.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 22.0,
"draw_pct": 24.7,
"home_pct": 53.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Villarreal"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.12,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 60.3,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.12,
"under_prob": 39.7
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 7.7,
"implied_prob": 49.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Villarreal Win",
"model_prob": 53.3,
"odds": 2.02
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Real Betis",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 27.26,
"draw": 24.57,
"home": 48.17
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 18:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 18:29:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Villarreal",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 4.96,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.17,
"gap_pp": 5.06,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 53.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.57,
"gap_pp": 0.2,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.26,
"gap_pp": -5.26,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 22.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.67,
"gap_pp": -6.37,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 60.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.33,
"gap_pp": 6.37,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 39.7
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.02,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.17,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.25,
"implied_early_pct": 48.42,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.96,
"early": 3.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.57,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.13,
"implied_early_pct": 24.7,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.57,
"early": 3.62,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.37,
"implied_early_pct": 26.88,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.44,
"early": 1.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 4.96,
"implied_early_pct": 61.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.88,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.33,
"implied_delta_pp": -4.96,
"implied_early_pct": 38.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.7,
"ev": -0.2122,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.8,
"market_prob": 0.1282,
"market_prob_pct": 12.8,
"model_prob": 0.101,
"model_prob_pct": 10.1,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.93,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0046,
"edge_pp": 0.5,
"market_prob": 0.3813,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.392,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.392,
"p_final": 0.386
},
"p_final": 0.386,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5967,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.6187,
"model_prob": 0.608,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.031,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.1,
"text": "+3.1%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0515,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.1,
"text": "-5.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.031,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 39.2,
"sort_key": 10027.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 60.8
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0156,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0156,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Villarreal",
"sort_key": 5212.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0011,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.3944,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.397,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.604,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.6056,
"model_prob": 0.603,
"p_final": 0.604
},
"p_final": 0.3955,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0551,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.3944,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"p_final": 0.3955
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0231,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.3,
"text": "-2.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0124,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.2,
"text": "+1.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0124,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 60.3,
"sort_key": 5209.92,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 39.7,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.29,
"hero_label": "Real Betis",
"market_prob_pct": 48.2,
"market_team": "Villarreal",
"model_prob_pct": 53.3,
"model_team": "Villarreal",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.031,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0753,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal at 53.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal as the value side (53.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Villarreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +8% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570382 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +8% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0156,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.74"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.74
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "5/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.38461538461538464,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.29,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.29,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.19,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.93,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.93,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.93 \u00b7 Away xG 1.19 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +43%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.031,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0753,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal at 53.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal as the value side (53.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Villarreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +8% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570382 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +8% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0156,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.74"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.74
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villarreal 1.93 xG vs Real Betis 1.19 \u2192 Villarreal 53.3%",
"Market: Villarreal ~48.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Villarreal projects stronger on expected goals (+0.74 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob": 53.29,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob": 48.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob": 24.74,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.29,
"fair_prob": 21.97,
"label": "Real Betis",
"market_prob": 27.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.3,
"fair_prob": 60.3,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.6,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"fair_prob": 39.7,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.4,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.29,
"fair_prob": 60.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.29,
"fair_prob": 39.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.97,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Real Betis",
"market_prob_pct": 27.26,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Real Betis\u0027s win probability at 27.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 22.0%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.29,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Villarreal",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 48.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.1,
"model_prob_pct": 53.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Villarreal \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 53,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 74,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villarreal 1.93 xG vs Real Betis 1.19 \u2192 Villarreal 53.3%",
"Market: Villarreal ~48.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Villarreal projects stronger on expected goals (+0.74 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.29,
"hero_label": "Real Betis",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Real Betis. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Real Betis. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Real Betis above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.29,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 28.6 pp (at 53.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 28.6,
"max_prob_pct": 53.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Real Betis",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Real Betis higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.12,
"edge_pp": 5.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 53.29,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Villarreal",
"market_prob_pct": 48.17,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.17,
"edge_pp": 0.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.29,
"edge_pp": -5.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.97,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Real Betis",
"market_prob_pct": 27.26,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Villarreal (48.2%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.4%, 5/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Villarreal \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.01,
"closing_odds": 3.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.01,
"entry_odds": 3.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.03 \u2192 3.41 \u2192 3.90) \u2014 net 5.4% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.96",
"3.83",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.03 \u2192 3.41 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 57m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.03"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.41"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
3.96,
3.94,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,1.4 56.0,4.2",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.96"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 29,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-betis",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Betis",
"away_team_id": 543,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/543.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Betis",
"away_team_public_id": "2gOVXiDoGTu3om",
"away_team_slug": "real-betis",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1570382,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Villarreal",
"home_team_id": 533,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/533.webp",
"home_team_name": "Villarreal",
"home_team_public_id": "0IpdF7vJ229w15",
"home_team_slug": "villarreal",
"ht.home_team_slug": "villarreal",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "La Liga",
"league_id": 140,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/140.webp",
"league_name": "La Liga",
"league_public_id": "49oABHuePA7Q7M",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 19:00:00",
"public_id": "5WBr62d3qTnyLR",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Villarreal",
"venue_name": "Estadio de la Cer\u00e1mica"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2763,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0145,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.2726,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2457,
"home": 0.4817
},
"model_prob": 0.22,
"p_final": 0.258
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2991,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0006,
"ev": -0.0246,
"implied_prob": 0.2457,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2457,
"home": 0.4817
},
"model_prob": 0.2477,
"p_final": 0.2463
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4158,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2726,
"draw": 0.2457,
"home": 0.4817
},
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"p_final": 0.5028
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": -0.0602,
"ev": -0.2148,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.22
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.96,
"edge": -0.0048,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.2525,
"model_prob": 0.2477
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.0753,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.5323
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4339,
"alpha_yes": 0.5967,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.56,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0129,
"edge_yes": -0.0129,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.031,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0544,
"ev_yes": -0.0515,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0754,
"implied_no": 0.3791,
"implied_yes": 0.6209,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.392,
"p_final": 0.386
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5967,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.6187,
"model_prob": 0.608,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.386,
"p_final_yes": 0.6123,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.604,
"alpha_under": 0.4393,
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.38,
"edge_over": -0.003,
"edge_under": 0.003,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0231,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0638,
"ev_under": 0.0124,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0586,
"implied_over": 0.606,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6056,
"implied_under": 0.394,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3944,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.604,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.6056,
"model_prob": 0.603,
"p_final": 0.604
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.3944,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"p_final": 0.3955
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.604,
"p_final_under": 0.3955,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.12,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.031,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0753,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.031,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [],
"breakdown_resolved": [],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 6.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.031,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0753,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Villarreal at 53.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 48.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Villarreal as the value side (53.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.1,
"gates_failed": [
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Villarreal",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Villarreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.02 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +8% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1570382 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.02 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +3.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +3.1% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +3.1% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +3.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+3.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Villarreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.8/10",
"No consensus-line +EV at Primary threshold",
"Outlier price +8% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Thin consensus value",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0156,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 43.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.74"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.74
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.608,
"draw_prob": 0.2477,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5323,
"over_prob": 0.603,
"total_xg": 3.12,
"under_prob": 0.397,
"xg_diff": 0.74
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.031,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3791,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.392,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": 0.0156,
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Villarreal"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0046,
"market_prob": 0.3813,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.392,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4339,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3813,
"model_prob": 0.392,
"p_final": 0.386
},
"p_final": 0.386,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0544,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5967,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": -0.0064,
"ev": -0.0754,
"implied_prob": 0.6187,
"model_prob": 0.608,
"p_final": 0.6123
}
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": 0.031,
"implied_prob": 0.3791,
"model_prob": 0.392,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0011,
"market_prob": 0.3944,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.397,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.604,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0638,
"implied_prob": 0.6056,
"model_prob": 0.603,
"p_final": 0.604
},
"p_final": 0.3955,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0586,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4393,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0011,
"ev": -0.0586,
"implied_prob": 0.3944,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"p_final": 0.3955
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.003,
"ev": 0.0124,
"implied_prob": 0.394,
"model_prob": 0.397,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1570382,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.031,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.22,
"draw": 0.2477,
"home": 0.5323
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Betis",
"home": "Villarreal"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0156,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4817,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5323,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0752,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+7.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1570382,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T18:59:14.475811+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
La Liga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 7 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 5 | Alaves | 7 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 6 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | Elche | 7 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 8 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 10 | Sevilla | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 17 | Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 14.9 | 2.7 | +12.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5.7 | 1.8 | +3.9 | 15 |
| 3 | Osasuna | 7 | 6.7 | 3.3 | +3.4 | 8 |
| 4 | Alaves | 7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | +2.2 | 11 |
| 5 | Racing Santander | 7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | +1.4 | 7 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 7 | 7.6 | 7.0 | +0.6 | 8 |
| 7 | Espanyol | 7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 7 | 7.2 | 7.4 | -0.2 | 16 |
| 9 | Levante | 6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 5 |
| 10 | Sevilla | 7 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 13 |
| 11 | Malaga | 7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | -0.8 | 3 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 6 | 4.1 | 4.9 | -0.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3.6 | 5.0 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 14 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 2.9 | 4.7 | -1.8 | 10 |
| 15 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | 16 |
| 16 | Elche | 7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | -2.8 | 5 |
| 17 | Getafe | 7 | 2.8 | 5.6 | -2.8 | 8 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 3.7 | 6.9 | -3.2 | 4 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 3.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | 8 |
| 20 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 2.4 | 6.5 | -4.1 | 7 |
