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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Celta de Vigo II win · Celta de Vigo II 4–1 Real Sociedad II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3423,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2744,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3833,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.43,
"away_win_prob": 0.3423,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3423,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.388,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.612,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2744,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.92,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.64,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.61,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.61,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.54,
"home_win_prob": 0.3833,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3833,
"over_25_prob": 0.57,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.43
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Real Sociedad II and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Real Sociedad II"
},
"away_xg": 1.43,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Celta de Vigo II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0205,
"edge_gap": 0.0407,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3625,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 27.5,
"home": 38.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.71
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.7
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.6
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.55
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 2.55
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.52
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.5
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.71,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Celta de Vigo II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.76,
"market_odds": 2.57,
"model_odds": 2.61,
"overround": 7.3,
"prob_edge": 1.4,
"value_pct": 3.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 76.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 78.6,
"no_prob": 38.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 61.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 61.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.43,
"home_expected": 1.54,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Celta de Vigo II or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Celta de Vigo II or Real Sociedad II",
"prob": 72.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Real Sociedad II",
"prob": 61.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Celta de Vigo II or Real Sociedad II",
"pick_prob": 72.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 38.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Celta de Vigo II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.97,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 57.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.97,
"under_prob": 43.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 3.8,
"implied_prob": 36.9,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Celta de Vigo II Win",
"model_prob": 38.3,
"odds": 2.71
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.4,
"ev": -0.2316,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.8,
"market_prob": 0.1471,
"market_prob_pct": 14.7,
"model_prob": 0.113,
"model_prob_pct": 11.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 7.3
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.54,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0107,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.5211,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"p_final": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0374,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0322,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4682
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0602,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1185,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.8,
"text": "-11.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0602,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 57.0,
"sort_key": 10204.18,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 43.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"edge": 0.0092,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.5724,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.612,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4192
},
"p_final": 0.5816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0147,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0636,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.5724,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5816
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.127,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.7,
"text": "-12.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.022,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.2,
"text": "+2.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.022,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 38.8,
"sort_key": 5217.6,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 61.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0489,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0489,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0234,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Celta de Vigo II",
"sort_key": 1787.775,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "10/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "10/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"alert_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"model_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0602,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celta de Vigo II at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celta de Vigo II as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celta de Vigo II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0489,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0234,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "10/10",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 60,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.43,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.54,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.54 \u00b7 Away xG 1.43 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"steam_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0602,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celta de Vigo II at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celta de Vigo II as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celta de Vigo II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0489,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0234,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celta de Vigo II 1.54 xG vs Real Sociedad II 1.43 \u2192 Celta de Vigo II 38.3%",
"Market Drift: Celta de Vigo II odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Celta de Vigo II, but the market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.33,
"label": "Celta de Vigo II",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.23,
"label": "Real Sociedad II",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.66,
"fair_prob": 57.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.34,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.66,
"fair_prob": 43.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.66,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.09,
"fair_prob": 61.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.11,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.09,
"fair_prob": 38.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.89,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Celta de Vigo II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 36.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 38.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 60,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 27,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Celta de Vigo II 1.54 xG vs Real Sociedad II 1.43 \u2192 Celta de Vigo II 38.3%",
"Market Drift: Celta de Vigo II odds \u2191 +14.9%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Celta de Vigo II, but the market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Celta de Vigo II odds lengthened \u2191 +14.9%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.1 pp (at 38.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.1,
"max_prob_pct": 38.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.33,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Celta de Vigo II",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.23,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Real Sociedad II",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Celta de Vigo II (38.3%).",
"However, Celta de Vigo II has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +14.9%, 10/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.04,
"entry_odds": 2.7,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 10,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.9,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Celta de Vigo II (14.9%, 10/10) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.9,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.70",
"2.53",
"2.35"
],
"display": "2.71 \u2192 2.14 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 121h 43m",
"pick_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.71"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 10/10 sportsbooks on Celta de Vigo II",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved away from Celta de Vigo II while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/10",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.9%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Celta de Vigo II",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Celta de Vigo II",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "real-sociedad-ii",
"away_expected_goals": 0.26,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Real Sociedad II",
"away_team_id": 9585,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9585.webp",
"away_team_name": "Real Sociedad II",
"away_team_public_id": "4VE9jZUJZbzccK",
"away_team_slug": "real-sociedad-ii",
"country_code": "ES",
"country_display_name": "Spain",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
"country_id": 145,
"country_name": "Spain",
"fixture_id": 1569963,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 4,
"home_expected_goals": 0.09,
"home_goal_display": 4,
"home_team_country": "Spain",
"home_team_display_name": "Celta de Vigo II",
"home_team_id": 9571,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9571.webp",
"home_team_name": "Celta de Vigo II",
"home_team_public_id": "1E1x1vjbEDrdS3",
"home_team_slug": "celta-de-vigo-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "celta-de-vigo-ii",
"league_country": "Spain",
"league_country_display": "Spain",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_id": 141,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
"league_public_id": "1YfIntNgNmJtUI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-10 19:00:00",
"public_id": "3dpYu33vuf0lC2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Vigo",
"venue_name": "Municipal de Bala\u00eddos"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4407,
"best_odd": 2.615,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0847,
"implied_prob": 0.3561,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3561,
"draw": 0.2788,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.35
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2981,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.073,
"implied_prob": 0.2788,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3561,
"draw": 0.2788,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.2746,
"p_final": 0.2775
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4379,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3561,
"draw": 0.2788,
"home": 0.3651
},
"model_prob": 0.383,
"p_final": 0.373
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.7,
"edge": -0.028,
"ev": -0.0757,
"implied_prob": 0.3704,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.51,
"edge": -0.0103,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.2849,
"model_prob": 0.2746
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.71,
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.369,
"model_prob": 0.383
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2116,
"alpha_yes": 0.2328,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0409,
"edge_yes": 0.0409,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.127,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0965,
"ev_yes": 0.022,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0636,
"implied_no": 0.4289,
"implied_yes": 0.5711,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4192
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.5724,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5816
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4192,
"p_final_yes": 0.5816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2189,
"alpha_under": 0.2189,
"best_over_odd": 1.86,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.82,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": 0.0466,
"edge_under": -0.0466,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0602,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0322,
"ev_under": -0.1185,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0729,
"implied_over": 0.5234,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5211,
"implied_under": 0.4766,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4789,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4682
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5318,
"p_final_under": 0.4682,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.97,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0602,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.3
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 1.8,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0602,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0602,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.3,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 27,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Celta de Vigo II at 38.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Celta de Vigo II as the value side (38.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Celta de Vigo II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "60 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "27 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 60,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Celta de Vigo II, but the model still strongly favours Celta de Vigo II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0489,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0234,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.612,
"draw_prob": 0.2746,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.383,
"over_prob": 0.57,
"total_xg": 2.97,
"under_prob": 0.43,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0489,
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.383,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Celta de Vigo II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.61,
"edge": 0.0092,
"market_prob": 0.5724,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.612,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2116,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.0965,
"implied_prob": 0.4276,
"model_prob": 0.388,
"p_final": 0.4192
},
"p_final": 0.5816,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0636,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2328,
"best_odd": 1.61,
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": -0.0636,
"implied_prob": 0.5724,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"p_final": 0.5816
}
},
"edge": 0.0409,
"ev": 0.022,
"implied_prob": 0.5711,
"model_prob": 0.612,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0107,
"market_prob": 0.5211,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": 0.0107,
"ev": -0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.5211,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"p_final": 0.5318
},
"p_final": 0.5318,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0322,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2189,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0107,
"ev": -0.0729,
"implied_prob": 0.4789,
"model_prob": 0.43,
"p_final": 0.4682
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0466,
"ev": 0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.5234,
"model_prob": 0.57,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1569963,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0602,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2746,
"home": 0.383
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Real Sociedad II",
"home": "Celta de Vigo II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.042893,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0602,
"implied_prob": 0.5234,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.57,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0489,
"consensus_ev_display": "-4.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3651,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.383,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3921568627450981,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0234,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-2.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569963,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-10T20:23:08.513742+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Segunda División — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Almeria | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Girona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Burgos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Sporting Gijón | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Granada CF | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Oviedo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Las Palmas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Leganes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Córdoba | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 19 | Cádiz | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 20 | FC Andorra | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 | Castellón | 8 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 20 |
| 3 | Girona | 8 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 4 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | Córdoba | 9 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 9 |
| 6 | Almeria | 8 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 7 | Granada CF | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Burgos | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 9 | Las Palmas | 8 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Andorra | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Cádiz | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 9 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 16 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Tenerife | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 8 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 14 |
| 17 | Sporting Gijón | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 18 | Oviedo | 8 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 19 | Valladolid | 8 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 9 |
| 20 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
| 21 | Leganes | 8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eldense | 9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | +1.5 | 11 |
| 2 | Cádiz | 8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | +1.0 | 7 |
| 3 | Sabadell | 9 | 1.4 | 0.9 | +0.5 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad II | 9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | -0.1 | 8 |
| 5 | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 0.9 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 5 |
| 6 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 2.6 | 3.5 | -0.9 | 11 |
| 7 | Córdoba | 9 | 1.4 | 2.9 | -1.5 | 9 |
| 8 | Eibar | 8 | — | — | — | 21 |
| 9 | Castellón | 8 | — | — | — | 20 |
| 10 | Almeria | 8 | — | — | — | 18 |
| 11 | Girona | 8 | — | — | — | 14 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 8 | — | — | — | 14 |
| 13 | Burgos | 8 | — | — | — | 14 |
| 14 | Sporting Gijón | 8 | — | — | — | 13 |
| 15 | Granada CF | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 16 | Oviedo | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 17 | Las Palmas | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 18 | Tenerife | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 19 | Leganes | 8 | — | — | — | 11 |
| 20 | Valladolid | 8 | — | — | — | 9 |
| 21 | FC Andorra | 8 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 22 | Albacete | 8 | — | — | — | 1 |
