Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Widzew II Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win · Widzew II 2–3 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "1743004443bf5d889a6f65d1242020e4af93caa3af653a289fc2c5bf2e51a881",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"away_win_prob": 0.3058,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.27,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.5,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"home_win_prob": 0.3994,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Widzew II or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Widzew II"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Widzew II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0727,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.6,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 40.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.72
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.72,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Widzew II Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.06,
"market_odds": 2.72,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 12.4,
"prob_edge": 3.2,
"value_pct": 8.8,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 75.3,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 1.4,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Widzew II or Draw",
"prob": 69.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Widzew II or Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"prob": 60.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Widzew II or Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.6,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 39.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Widzew II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.8,
"implied_prob": 36.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Widzew II Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 2.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.75,
"draw": 25.55,
"home": 32.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 10:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 10:29:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Widzew II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.69,
"gap_pp": 7.27,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.55,
"gap_pp": 3.92,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.75,
"gap_pp": -11.19,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.37,
"gap_pp": -12.17,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 39.63,
"gap_pp": 12.17,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.55,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.75,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.3,
"early": 2.3,
"implied_closing_pct": 39.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 39.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.2,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.4,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1345,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.3496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"p_final": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3494,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0304,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1345,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.3,
"text": "-25.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 42.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4245,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10532.05,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"p_final": 0.3458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2796,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6472
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3162,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 31.6,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2181,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.8,
"text": "-21.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3162,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10284.58,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0314,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0314,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0872,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Widzew II",
"sort_key": 1792.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.17,
"hero_label": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"market_team": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Widzew II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Widzew II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Widzew II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Widzew II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0314,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0872,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.17,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.4,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.40 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Widzew II",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Widzew II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Widzew II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Widzew II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0314,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0872,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Widzew II 1.40 xG vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1.20 \u2192 Widzew II 39.9%",
"Market: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Widzew II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Widzew II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 7.25,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Widzew II",
"market_prob": 32.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.17,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"market_prob": 41.75,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.16,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.16,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 35.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.14,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 66.44,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.14,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 33.56,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"market_prob_pct": 41.75,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Widzew II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki\u0027s win probability at 41.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Widzew II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 32.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 7.2,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+7.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Widzew II 1.40 xG vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1.20 \u2192 Widzew II 39.9%",
"Market: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki ~32.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Widzew II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Widzew II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.17,
"hero_label": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (pricing gap 11.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.17,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.2,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 7.25,
"edge_pp": 7.25,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Widzew II",
"market_prob_pct": 32.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.93,
"edge_pp": 3.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -11.17,
"edge_pp": -11.17,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"market_prob_pct": 41.75,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki (32.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Widzew II, Market \u2192 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 46.95,
"closing_odds": 2.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 46.95,
"entry_odds": 2.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.6,
"pick_team": "Widzew II",
"steam_score": 27,
"steam_team_name": "Widzew II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "mazovia-minsk-mazowiecki",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"away_team_id": 27901,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"away_team_public_id": "4EID8HNVZTT8GB",
"away_team_slug": "mazovia-minsk-mazowiecki",
"country_code": "PL",
"country_display_name": "Poland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pl.svg",
"country_id": 128,
"country_name": "Poland",
"fixture_id": 1569096,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Poland",
"home_team_display_name": "Widzew II",
"home_team_id": 26178,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26178.webp",
"home_team_name": "Widzew II",
"home_team_public_id": "49j1IBDdEqUyv8",
"home_team_slug": "widzew-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "widzew-ii",
"league_country": "Poland",
"league_country_display": "Poland",
"league_display_name": "III liga \u2013 Grupa I",
"league_id": 780,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/780.webp",
"league_name": "III liga \u2013 Grupa I",
"league_public_id": "4SPrtfKVV3K4DA",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 11:00:00",
"public_id": "3S7ltcMieAJLjN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3744,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0419,
"ev": -0.2,
"implied_prob": 0.4175,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.3269
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.3756
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2824,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.2555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.3269
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2666
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4009,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4175,
"draw": 0.2555,
"home": 0.3269
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.3561
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1639,
"ev": -0.3491,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.3056
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": 0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": 0.032,
"ev": 0.0871,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.3997
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1449,
"alpha_yes": 0.1992,
"best_no_odd": 2.88,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1214,
"edge_yes": -0.1214,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3162,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0318,
"ev_yes": -0.2181,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1199,
"implied_no": 0.3356,
"implied_yes": 0.6644,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6472
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.3458,
"p_final_yes": 0.6472,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.185,
"alpha_under": 0.1345,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.605,
"edge_over": -0.1616,
"edge_under": 0.1616,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.133,
"ev_under": 0.4245,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0304,
"implied_over": 0.6436,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6504,
"implied_under": 0.3564,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3496,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1345,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3722
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6193,
"p_final_under": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.1
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.2,
"summary": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4245,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4245,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.1,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Widzew II at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 32.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Widzew II as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Widzew II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +42.4% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +42.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +42.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+42.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"Decision strength: 3.1/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Widzew II, but the model still strongly favours Widzew II.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0314,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0872,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0292,
"ev": -0.0314,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Widzew II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"market_prob": 0.3269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1449,
"best_odd": 2.8,
"edge": 0.0188,
"ev": -0.0318,
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.3458
},
"p_final": 0.3458,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0318,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1992,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0259,
"ev": -0.1199,
"implied_prob": 0.6731,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.6472
}
},
"edge": 0.1214,
"ev": 0.3162,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1345,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"market_prob": 0.3496,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 1.4,
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.133,
"implied_prob": 0.6504,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6193
},
"p_final": 0.3722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0304,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1345,
"best_odd": 2.605,
"edge": 0.0227,
"ev": -0.0304,
"implied_prob": 0.3496,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3722
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1616,
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1569096,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4245,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3056,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3997
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3162,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3162,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.457,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki",
"home": "Widzew II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.153924,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4245,
"implied_prob": 0.3564,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0314,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3269,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+7.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0872,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1569096,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T10:59:13.772997+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Widzew II & Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
III liga – Grupa I — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszło | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Swit | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Widzew II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 16 | Troszyn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 10 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 20 |
| 2 | Weszło | 9 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 25 |
| 3 | Wisła Płock II | 10 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 18 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia II | 10 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 15 |
| 5 | Widzew II | 9 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 10 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 | Olimpia Zambrów | 10 | 20 | 26 | -6 | 11 |
| 8 | Mławianka Mława | 10 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 10 | Wigry Suwałki | 10 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 19 |
| 11 | Warta Sieradz | 9 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 14 |
| 12 | Swit | 10 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 13 | Pelikan Łowicz | 10 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 19 |
| 14 | ŁKS Łódź II | 9 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Olimpia Elbląg | 10 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 9 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 |
| 18 | Łomża | 10 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 3 |
