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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cardiff Cardiff ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 5-1 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Cardiff win · Cardiff 5–1 Watford
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "e1c3c03def581aa668404819c8151443f379b4553ad34be2de3c5e449e89818f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.2792,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2835,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4373,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"away_win_prob": 0.2792,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.2792,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.451,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.549,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2835,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2835,
"fair_odds_away": 3.58,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.58,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.53,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.53,
"fair_odds_home": 2.29,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.29,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.47,
"home_win_prob": 0.4373,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.4373,
"over_25_prob": 0.494,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.506
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Cardiff or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Cardiff"
},
"away_xg": 1.18,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Cardiff",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1356,
"edge_gap": 0.1535,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5726,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.0,
"draw": 28.3,
"home": 43.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 1.72
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 1.67
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 1.65
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.64
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 1.63
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 1.62
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.72,
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"display_market": "Cardiff Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.75,
"market_odds": 1.65,
"model_odds": 2.29,
"overround": 6.0,
"prob_edge": -14.5,
"value_pct": -24.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 69.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 8,
"home_score_rate": 77.0,
"no_prob": 45.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.9
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.18,
"home_expected": 1.47,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Cardiff or Draw",
"prob": 72.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Cardiff or Watford",
"prob": 71.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Watford",
"prob": 56.2
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Cardiff or Draw",
"pick_prob": 72.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 27.9,
"draw_pct": 28.3,
"home_pct": 43.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Cardiff"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.65,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 49.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.65,
"under_prob": 50.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 39.5,
"implied_prob": 20.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Watford Win",
"model_prob": 27.9,
"odds": 5.0
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 21.0,
"edge": 3.6,
"ev": 75.1,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 8.3
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.5,
"ev": 0.0455,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.47,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.03,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.372,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3076,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.5868
},
"p_final": 0.402,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2599,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0009,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.372,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.402
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2343,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.4,
"text": "-23.4%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3611,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3611,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 49.4,
"sort_key": 10474.99,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 50.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.3812,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.451,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"model_prob": 0.451,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"p_final": 0.3987,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0982,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0292,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3447,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.6188,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"p_final": 0.5947
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1501,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.0,
"text": "+15.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.0,
"text": "-16.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1501,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.1,
"sort_key": 10135.09,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1627,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.3,
"text": "-16.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0078,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.8,
"text": "+0.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.437,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Cardiff",
"sort_key": 5206.24,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"alert_team": "Watford",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Cardiff",
"model_prob_pct": 43.7,
"model_team": "Cardiff",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3611,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3976,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cardiff at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cardiff as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cardiff",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cardiff \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1627,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.60790273556231,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.18,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 9.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.47,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.47,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.47 \u00b7 Away xG 1.18 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +9%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"steam_team": "Watford",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3611,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3976,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cardiff at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cardiff as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cardiff",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cardiff \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1627,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.60790273556231,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cardiff 1.47 xG vs Watford 1.18 \u2192 Cardiff 43.7%",
"Market Drift: Watford odds \u2191 +15.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cardiff with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 43.73,
"label": "Cardiff",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 28.35,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 27.92,
"label": "Watford",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.74,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.74,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.13,
"fair_prob": 54.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.13,
"fair_prob": 45.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Cardiff",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 57.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.7,
"model_prob_pct": 43.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Cardiff \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Cardiff 1.47 xG vs Watford 1.18 \u2192 Cardiff 43.7%",
"Market Drift: Watford odds \u2191 +15.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Cardiff with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Watford odds lengthened \u2191 +15.5%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.4 pp (at 43.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.4,
"max_prob_pct": 43.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.73,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Cardiff",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Watford",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Cardiff (43.7%).",
"However, Watford has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.5%, 9/10) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Cardiff \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "No complete pre-match closing snapshot",
"closing_status": "unavailable",
"closing_status_label": "Unavailable",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "Requires closing line after full time",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "closing_unavailable",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Closing unavailable",
"entry_implied_pct": 20.0,
"entry_odds": 5.0,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "unavailable"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 62h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/10 books lengthened Watford together (15.5% drift, score 65) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.00",
"4.67",
"4.33"
],
"display": "5.00 \u2192 3.70 \u2192 5.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 62h 31m",
"pick_team": "Watford",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.33,
5.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.33,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Watford odds \u2191 +15.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Watford",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Watford odds \u2191 +15.5% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Watford",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 5.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"open_odds": 4.33,
"pick_team": "Watford",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Watford",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "watford",
"away_expected_goals": 0.14,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Watford",
"away_team_id": 38,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/38.webp",
"away_team_name": "Watford",
"away_team_public_id": "0i8Df31fPVBsmx",
"away_team_slug": "watford",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563194,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": 0.94,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Wales",
"home_team_display_name": "Cardiff",
"home_team_id": 43,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/43.webp",
"home_team_name": "Cardiff",
"home_team_public_id": "0hMc2IIdr3yTUs",
"home_team_slug": "cardiff",
"ht.home_team_slug": "cardiff",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Kejuaraan EFL",
"league_id": 40,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
"league_name": "Kejuaraan EFL",
"league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-13 18:45:00",
"public_id": "41HKSoIvyiMCae",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Cardiff",
"venue_name": "Cardiff City Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1771,
"best_odd": 4.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0135,
"ev": 0.0078,
"implied_prob": 0.2032,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2032,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.5744
},
"model_prob": 0.2795,
"p_final": 0.2167
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1817,
"best_odd": 4.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": -0.0078,
"implied_prob": 0.2223,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2032,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.5744
},
"model_prob": 0.2835,
"p_final": 0.2334
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4763,
"best_odd": 1.645,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0655,
"ev": -0.1627,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2032,
"draw": 0.2223,
"home": 0.5744
},
"model_prob": 0.437,
"p_final": 0.509
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.0,
"edge": 0.0795,
"ev": 0.3976,
"implied_prob": 0.2,
"model_prob": 0.2795
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.49,
"edge": 0.0608,
"ev": 0.2728,
"implied_prob": 0.2227,
"model_prob": 0.2835
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.1444,
"ev": -0.2484,
"implied_prob": 0.5814,
"model_prob": 0.437
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2507,
"alpha_yes": 0.3447,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0713,
"edge_yes": -0.0713,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1501,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0292,
"ev_yes": -0.16,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1079,
"implied_no": 0.3797,
"implied_yes": 0.6203,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"model_prob": 0.451,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3447,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.6188,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"p_final": 0.5947
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3987,
"p_final_yes": 0.5947,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3076,
"alpha_under": 0.2237,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.69,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.475,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.49,
"edge_over": -0.1374,
"edge_under": 0.1374,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2343,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1345,
"ev_under": 0.3611,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0009,
"implied_over": 0.6314,
"implied_over_mf": 0.628,
"implied_under": 0.3686,
"implied_under_mf": 0.372,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3076,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.5868
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.372,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.402
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5868,
"p_final_under": 0.402,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.65,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3611,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3976,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3611,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.2,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3611,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3976,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.2,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Cardiff at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 57.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Cardiff as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Cardiff",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Cardiff \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.76 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +40% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1563194 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.76 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.2/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.2/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Cardiff).",
"Decision strength: 7.2/10",
"Outlier price +40% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1627,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.60790273556231,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.9,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.549,
"draw_prob": 0.2835,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.437,
"over_prob": 0.494,
"total_xg": 2.65,
"under_prob": 0.506,
"xg_diff": 0.29
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0655,
"ev": -0.1627,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.437,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Cardiff"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.3812,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.451,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2507,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0292,
"implied_prob": 0.3812,
"model_prob": 0.451,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"p_final": 0.3987,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0292,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.3447,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1079,
"implied_prob": 0.6188,
"model_prob": 0.549,
"p_final": 0.5947
}
},
"edge": 0.0713,
"ev": 0.1501,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.451,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"edge": 0.03,
"market_prob": 0.372,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3076,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1345,
"implied_prob": 0.628,
"model_prob": 0.494,
"p_final": 0.5868
},
"p_final": 0.402,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0009,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2237,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.372,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"p_final": 0.402
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1374,
"ev": 0.3611,
"implied_prob": 0.3686,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1563194,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3611,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2795,
"draw": 0.2835,
"home": 0.437
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1501,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.451,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1501,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.451,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Watford",
"home": "Cardiff"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.182717,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3611,
"implied_prob": 0.3686,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.506,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1627,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.3%",
"consensus_odds": 1.645,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.437,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.60790273556231,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2811,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563194,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-13T19:23:45.765736+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Cardiff & Watford!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Kejuaraan EFL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| 6 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby County | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 10 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 19 |
| 2 | Southampton | 10 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Stoke City | 10 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Norwich | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Swansea | 10 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Cardiff | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | QPR | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
| 12 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 15 |
| 13 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Burnley | 10 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 10 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 17 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 | Bristol City | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 10 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 20 | Charlton | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 14 |
| 21 | Derby County | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 6 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Preston | 10 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 4 |
| 24 | Lincoln City | 10 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 15.1 | 7.5 | +7.6 | 21 |
| 2 | Southampton | 10 | 12.6 | 5.9 | +6.7 | 16 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 12.8 | 7.4 | +5.4 | 14 |
| 4 | QPR | 10 | 13.0 | 8.1 | +4.9 | 17 |
| 5 | Birmingham | 10 | 13.7 | 9.0 | +4.7 | 17 |
| 6 | West Ham United | 10 | 10.8 | 6.7 | +4.1 | 19 |
| 7 | Swansea | 10 | 9.7 | 5.9 | +3.8 | 23 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 10 | 9.1 | 5.8 | +3.3 | 11 |
| 9 | Millwall | 10 | 12.7 | 10.5 | +2.2 | 14 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 9 | 8.6 | 8.5 | +0.1 | 11 |
| 11 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 8.6 | 8.7 | -0.1 | 13 |
| 12 | Sheffield United | 10 | 7.3 | 7.5 | -0.2 | 12 |
| 13 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 11.2 | 11.8 | -0.6 | 17 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 10 | 11.4 | 12.8 | -1.4 | 10 |
| 15 | Burnley | 10 | 8.8 | 10.6 | -1.8 | 8 |
| 16 | Bristol City | 10 | 8.2 | 10.3 | -2.1 | 14 |
| 17 | Norwich | 10 | 9.1 | 12.3 | -3.2 | 9 |
| 18 | Watford | 10 | 7.6 | 10.8 | -3.2 | 8 |
| 19 | Charlton | 10 | 8.8 | 12.1 | -3.3 | 14 |
| 20 | Derby County | 10 | 7.1 | 10.8 | -3.7 | 6 |
| 21 | Preston | 10 | 4.3 | 8.9 | -4.6 | 4 |
| 22 | Lincoln City | 10 | 7.0 | 12.2 | -5.2 | 11 |
| 23 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 5.6 | 11.4 | -5.8 | 15 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 10 | 4.2 | 12.2 | -8.0 | 16 |
