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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Sheffield United Sheffield United ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Sheffield United win · Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Sheffield United
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.29,
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"over_25_prob": 0.492,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Sheffield United",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Sheffield United"
},
"away_xg": 1.52,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sheffield United",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.0301,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 2.38
}
],
"risk_color": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 78.1,
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"home_score_rate": 67.4,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
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{
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{
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{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 8.2
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{
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"label": "1-0",
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}
],
"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 71.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Sheffield United",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Sheffield United",
"pick_prob": 72.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 43.6,
"draw_pct": 28.4,
"home_pct": 28.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Sheffield United"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.64,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
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"label": "Away",
"market": "Sheffield United Win",
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"odds": 2.38
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"draw": 27.72,
"home": 31.62
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:44:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-08 18:14:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Blackburn Rovers",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.72,
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"model_pct": 28.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.65,
"gap_pp": 3.01,
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},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.67,
"gap_pp": -2.47,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 49.2
},
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}
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"movement": [
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{
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"ev": -0.1893,
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"market_prob": 0.1493,
"market_prob_pct": 14.9,
"model_prob": 0.121,
"model_prob_pct": 12.1,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.1
},
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{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.12,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
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"no": {
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"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"value_side": "no",
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"implied_prob": 0.5585,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0534,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.3,
"text": "+5.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0786,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.9,
"text": "-7.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10048.06,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
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"edge": 0.0093,
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"model_prob": 0.508,
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"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"under": {
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"edge": 0.0093,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0603,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.0,
"text": "-6.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0211,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0211,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over_prob": 49.2,
"sort_key": 5216.88,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 50.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0016,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0016,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.2,
"text": "-0.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Sheffield United",
"sort_key": 2199.872,
"tier": "pass"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"alert_team": "Sheffield United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.67,
"hero_label": "Blackburn Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 40.6,
"market_team": "Sheffield United",
"model_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_team": "Sheffield United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0534,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sheffield United at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sheffield United as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sheffield United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0016,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.67,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"steam_team": "Sheffield United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0534,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sheffield United at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sheffield United as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sheffield United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0016,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Blackburn Rovers 1.12 xG vs Sheffield United 1.52 \u2192 Sheffield United 43.6%",
"Market: Sheffield United ~40.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sheffield United odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sheffield United, but the market has moved away from Sheffield United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob": 27.95,
"label": "Blackburn Rovers",
"market_prob": 31.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.71,
"fair_prob": 28.43,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.72,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.97,
"fair_prob": 43.62,
"label": "Sheffield United",
"market_prob": 40.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.7,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.9,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.1,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.87,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.87,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.95,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Blackburn Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 31.62,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Sheffield United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sheffield United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 3.0,
"model_prob_pct": 43.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 29,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Blackburn Rovers 1.12 xG vs Sheffield United 1.52 \u2192 Sheffield United 43.6%",
"Market: Sheffield United ~40.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Sheffield United odds \u2191 +4.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Sheffield United, but the market has moved away from Sheffield United.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.67,
"hero_label": "Blackburn Rovers",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Sheffield United odds lengthened \u2191 +4.5%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sheffield United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Sheffield United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Sheffield United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sheffield United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Sheffield United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.2 pp (at 43.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.2,
"max_prob_pct": 43.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Blackburn Rovers",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.7,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.7,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -3.67,
"edge_pp": -3.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.95,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Blackburn Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 31.62,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.71,
"edge_pp": 0.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.72,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.97,
"edge_pp": 2.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sheffield United",
"market_prob_pct": 40.65,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sheffield United \u2014 odds lengthened by 4.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Sheffield United (40.6%).",
"Sheffield United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +4.5%, 8/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sheffield United, Market \u2192 Sheffield United, while Sheffield United odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 32.68,
"closing_odds": 3.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 32.68,
"entry_odds": 3.06,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 4.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 50h 43m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"SBO led repricing on Sheffield United (4.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.38",
"2.29",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 2.11 \u2192 2.30",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 50h 43m",
"pick_team": "Sheffield United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.38,
2.3
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.30"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Sheffield United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.3,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Sheffield United while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Sheffield United",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 2.3,
"move_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Sheffield United",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Sheffield United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "sheffield-utd",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Sheffield United",
"away_team_id": 62,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/62.webp",
"away_team_name": "Sheffield United",
"away_team_public_id": "36CvFCTDRUcv5L",
"away_team_slug": "sheffield-utd",
"country_code": "GB-ENG",
"country_display_name": "England",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-eng.svg",
"country_id": 49,
"country_name": "England",
"fixture_id": 1563143,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "England",
"home_team_display_name": "Blackburn Rovers",
"home_team_id": 67,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/67.webp",
"home_team_name": "Blackburn Rovers",
"home_team_public_id": "2mOmpqbzFwnWfs",
"home_team_slug": "blackburn",
"ht.home_team_slug": "blackburn",
"league_country": "England",
"league_country_display": "England",
"league_display_name": "Kejuaraan EFL",
"league_id": 40,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/40.webp",
"league_name": "Kejuaraan EFL",
"league_public_id": "0hAgPj4dcuGGAo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-08 18:45:00",
"public_id": "0f6cbLTuMJgzog",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Blackburn Rovers",
"venue_name": "Ewood Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4297,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0016,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4065,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.3162
},
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"p_final": 0.4195
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2969,
"best_odd": 3.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.002,
"ev": -0.0253,
"implied_prob": 0.2772,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4065,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.3162
},
"model_prob": 0.2841,
"p_final": 0.2793
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2834,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.3162,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4065,
"draw": 0.2772,
"home": 0.3162
},
"model_prob": 0.2793,
"p_final": 0.3057
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0165,
"ev": 0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4202,
"model_prob": 0.4366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.49,
"edge": -0.0025,
"ev": -0.0086,
"implied_prob": 0.2865,
"model_prob": 0.2841
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.06,
"edge": -0.0475,
"ev": -0.1453,
"implied_prob": 0.3268,
"model_prob": 0.2793
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5376,
"alpha_yes": 0.5914,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.7,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0187,
"edge_yes": -0.0187,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0534,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0542,
"ev_yes": -0.0786,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0891,
"implied_no": 0.4393,
"implied_yes": 0.5607,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5376,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4415,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4504
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5914,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5585,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4504,
"p_final_yes": 0.5487,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.537,
"alpha_under": 0.537,
"best_over_odd": 1.91,
"best_under_odd": 2.01,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.92,
"edge_over": -0.017,
"edge_under": 0.017,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0603,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.075,
"ev_under": 0.0211,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.04,
"implied_over": 0.509,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5093,
"implied_under": 0.491,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4907,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.537,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.537,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5,
"p_final_under": 0.5,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.64,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "no",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0534,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0534,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0534,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0534,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0534,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 35,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sheffield United at 43.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sheffield United as the value side (43.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 3.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sheffield United",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "35 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"Decision strength: 3.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Sheffield United, but the model still strongly favours Sheffield United.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0016,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2841,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4366,
"over_prob": 0.492,
"total_xg": 2.64,
"under_prob": 0.508,
"xg_diff": 0.4
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0534,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "no",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0016,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Sheffield United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5376,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"market_prob": 0.4415,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5376,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0542,
"implied_prob": 0.4415,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.4504
},
"p_final": 0.4504,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0542,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5914,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5585,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.5487
}
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.537,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0093,
"market_prob": 0.4907,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.537,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5
},
"p_final": 0.5,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.04,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.537,
"best_odd": 1.92,
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.04,
"implied_prob": 0.4907,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.5
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": 0.0211,
"implied_prob": 0.491,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1563143,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0534,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4366,
"draw": 0.2841,
"home": 0.2793
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.4393,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Sheffield United",
"home": "Blackburn Rovers"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0016,
"consensus_ev_display": "-0.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4366,
"raw_edge_display": "+3.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.42016806722689076,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0391,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+3.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1563143,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-08T19:16:57.693219+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Blackburn Rovers & Sheffield United!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Kejuaraan EFL — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield United | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby County | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 8 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | Southampton | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Norwich | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 14 |
| 6 | Millwall | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 7 | Swansea | 8 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Birmingham | 8 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | QPR | 8 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 15 | Cardiff | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 17 | Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 8 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Burnley | 8 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Preston | 8 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 21 | Lincoln City | 8 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 22 | Charlton | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 23 | Watford | 8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 24 | Derby County | 8 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southampton | 8 | 7.2 | 2.6 | +4.6 | 10 |
| 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | +4.4 | 14 |
| 3 | QPR | 8 | 8.5 | 4.2 | +4.3 | 13 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | +3.5 | 15 |
| 5 | Wrexham | 8 | 5.4 | 3.5 | +1.9 | 10 |
| 6 | Swansea | 8 | 4.6 | 3.0 | +1.6 | 17 |
| 7 | Millwall | 8 | 8.6 | 7.2 | +1.4 | 11 |
| 8 | Birmingham | 8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | +1.3 | 11 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 8 | 4.9 | 4.0 | +0.9 | 15 |
| 10 | Norwich | 8 | 6.8 | 6.6 | +0.2 | 9 |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 9 |
| 12 | Portsmouth | 7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | -0.4 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff | 8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | -1.0 | 7 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 2.8 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 10 |
| 15 | Preston | 8 | 2.4 | 3.5 | -1.1 | 4 |
| 16 | Burnley | 8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | -1.2 | 4 |
| 17 | Watford | 8 | 2.6 | 4.0 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 8 | 4.5 | 6.4 | -1.9 | 11 |
| 19 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 2.8 | 4.7 | -1.9 | 9 |
| 20 | Derby County | 8 | 4.5 | 6.8 | -2.3 | 5 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 5.4 | 8.0 | -2.6 | 14 |
| 22 | Bristol City | 8 | 4.1 | 6.9 | -2.8 | 13 |
| 23 | Charlton | 8 | 3.4 | 6.5 | -3.1 | 12 |
| 24 | Stoke City | 8 | 2.2 | 5.6 | -3.4 | 13 |
