Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Heart of Midlothian Falkirk ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.74
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Falkirk win · Falkirk 2–1 Heart of Midlothian
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 1.85,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.65,
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"over_25_prob": 0.469,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.531
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Winner : Heart of Midlothian and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Heart of Midlothian",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"away_xg": 1.66,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"confidence": 54.0,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Heart of Midlothian",
"edge": 0.0642,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.03
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.1,
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"overround": 3.5,
"prob_edge": 4.8,
"value_pct": 9.7,
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 81.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 58.9,
"no_prob": 50.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.66,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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},
{
"away": 2,
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Falkirk or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 72.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Heart of Midlothian",
"pick_prob": 81.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 27.4,
"home_pct": 18.6,
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.55,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 9.7,
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"model_prob": 54.1,
"odds": 2.03
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 47.61,
"draw": 26.55,
"home": 25.84
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:41:09",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-15 18:14:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Falkirk",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"closing_implied_pct": 25.84,
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"model_pct": 18.58
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.55,
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"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 27.39
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.61,
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"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 54.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 54.87,
"gap_pp": -7.97,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 46.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 45.13,
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 3.74,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.64,
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{
"closing": 1.76,
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"implied_closing_pct": 54.87,
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"kind": "ou_o"
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{
"closing": 2.14,
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"top_value_gap": {
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},
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"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
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"model_prob_pct": 13.0,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 13.0
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{
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
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}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.89,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0393,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"market_prob": 0.4269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
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"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0139,
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"model_prob": 0.508,
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"value_side": "no",
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.209,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.9,
"text": "+20.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1784,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.8,
"text": "-17.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.4827,
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"edge": 0.04,
"edge_pp": 4.0,
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"model_prob": 0.531,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.531,
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"edge": -0.044,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
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"p_final": 0.4881,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.3,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.025,
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"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.025,
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},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1699,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.0,
"text": "-17.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1523,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.2,
"text": "+15.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1523,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over_prob": 46.9,
"sort_key": 10137.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 53.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "small_edge",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0195,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0195,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"sort_key": 5215.6,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"alert_team": "Falkirk",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.26,
"hero_label": "Falkirk",
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"market_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"model_prob_pct": 54.0,
"model_team": "Heart of Midlothian",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.209,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 54.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (54.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.26,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.66,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.89,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.66,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.89 \u00b7 Away xG 1.66 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +23%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"steam_team": "Falkirk",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.209,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 54.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (54.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Falkirk 0.89 xG vs Heart of Midlothian 1.66 \u2192 Heart of Midlothian 54.0%",
"Market: Heart of Midlothian ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Falkirk odds \u2191 +14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Heart of Midlothian projects stronger on expected goals (+0.77 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.26,
"fair_prob": 18.58,
"label": "Falkirk",
"market_prob": 25.84,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob": 27.37,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob": 54.05,
"label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob": 47.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob": 46.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.16,
"fair_prob": 53.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.42,
"fair_prob": 49.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.42,
"fair_prob": 50.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Falkirk",
"market_prob_pct": 25.84,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Falkirk"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Falkirk\u0027s win probability at 25.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 18.6%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 47.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 6.4,
"model_prob_pct": 54.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Heart of Midlothian \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 68,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Falkirk 0.89 xG vs Heart of Midlothian 1.66 \u2192 Heart of Midlothian 54.0%",
"Market: Heart of Midlothian ~47.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Falkirk odds \u2191 +14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Heart of Midlothian projects stronger on expected goals (+0.77 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.26,
"hero_label": "Falkirk",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Falkirk odds lengthened \u2191 +14.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Falkirk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Falkirk.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Falkirk. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Falkirk."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Falkirk above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Falkirk (\u2191 +14.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Falkirk."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.26,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 26.7 pp (at 54.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 26.7,
"max_prob_pct": 54.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Falkirk",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Falkirk higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.26,
"edge_pp": -7.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Falkirk",
"market_prob_pct": 25.84,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 0.82,
"edge_pp": 0.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 27.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.55,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.44,
"edge_pp": 6.44,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.05,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Heart of Midlothian",
"market_prob_pct": 47.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Falkirk.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Heart of Midlothian (47.6%).",
"Falkirk odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +14.7%, 11/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Heart of Midlothian \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.74,
"closing_odds": 3.74,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.74,
"entry_odds": 3.74,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 215h 14m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Falkirk (14.7%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.65",
"3.40"
],
"display": "4.09 \u2192 2.85 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 215h 14m",
"pick_team": "Falkirk",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.09"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.4,
3.74,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,5.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.4,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/13 sportsbooks on Falkirk",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Falkirk",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Falkirk",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Falkirk",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Falkirk",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "heart-of-midlothian",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"away_team_id": 254,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/254.webp",
"away_team_name": "Heart of Midlothian",
"away_team_public_id": "2rklOduBhdIObN",
"away_team_slug": "heart-of-midlothian",
"country_code": "GB-SCT",
"country_display_name": "Scotland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gb-sct.svg",
"country_id": 136,
"country_name": "Scotland",
"fixture_id": 1556641,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Scotland",
"home_team_display_name": "Falkirk",
"home_team_id": 1389,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1389.webp",
"home_team_name": "Falkirk",
"home_team_public_id": "5uUzEfeVNaXOEm",
"home_team_slug": "falkirk",
"ht.home_team_slug": "falkirk",
"league_country": "Scotland",
"league_country_display": "Scotland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premiership Scotland",
"league_id": 179,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/179.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premiership Scotland",
"league_public_id": "1PKN7lXDD29LSy",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-15 18:45:00",
"public_id": "212SoYYyxmAx6Q",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Falkirk",
"venue_name": "Falkirk Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4066,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": 0.0195,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4761,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.2584
},
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"p_final": 0.5022
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2962,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0025,
"ev": -0.0245,
"implied_prob": 0.2655,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4761,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.2584
},
"model_prob": 0.2739,
"p_final": 0.268
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2673,
"best_odd": 3.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0194,
"ev": -0.1061,
"implied_prob": 0.2584,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4761,
"draw": 0.2655,
"home": 0.2584
},
"model_prob": 0.1858,
"p_final": 0.239
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": 0.0477,
"ev": 0.0969,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.5403
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.0031,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2739
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.74,
"edge": -0.0816,
"ev": -0.3051,
"implied_prob": 0.2674,
"model_prob": 0.1858
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4842,
"alpha_yes": 0.5326,
"best_no_odd": 2.38,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0842,
"edge_yes": -0.0842,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.209,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0139,
"ev_yes": -0.1784,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1415,
"implied_no": 0.4238,
"implied_yes": 0.5762,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4842,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4662
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5326,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.5731,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5299
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.4662,
"p_final_yes": 0.5299,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.531,
"alpha_under": 0.4827,
"best_over_odd": 1.77,
"best_under_odd": 2.17,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.705,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0816,
"edge_under": 0.0816,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1699,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1341,
"ev_under": 0.1523,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.025,
"implied_over": 0.5506,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5519,
"implied_under": 0.4494,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4481,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.531,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.044,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.5079
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.4881
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5079,
"p_final_under": 0.4881,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.55,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.209,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.209,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Heart of Midlothian at 54.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 47.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Heart of Midlothian as the value side (54.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Heart of Midlothian",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +20.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +20.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+20.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Heart of Midlothian).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 23.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.492,
"draw_prob": 0.2739,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5403,
"over_prob": 0.469,
"total_xg": 2.55,
"under_prob": 0.531,
"xg_diff": 0.77
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": 0.0195,
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Heart of Midlothian"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4842,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0393,
"market_prob": 0.4269,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4842,
"best_odd": 2.175,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.0139,
"implied_prob": 0.4269,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"p_final": 0.4662
},
"p_final": 0.4662,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0139,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5326,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0432,
"ev": -0.1415,
"implied_prob": 0.5731,
"model_prob": 0.492,
"p_final": 0.5299
}
},
"edge": 0.0842,
"ev": 0.209,
"implied_prob": 0.4238,
"model_prob": 0.508,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.04,
"market_prob": 0.4481,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.531,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.531,
"best_odd": 1.705,
"edge": -0.044,
"ev": -0.1341,
"implied_prob": 0.5519,
"model_prob": 0.469,
"p_final": 0.5079
},
"p_final": 0.4881,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.025,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4827,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.04,
"ev": 0.025,
"implied_prob": 0.4481,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"p_final": 0.4881
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0816,
"ev": 0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"model_prob": 0.531,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1556641,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5403,
"draw": 0.2739,
"home": 0.1858
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.531,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1523,
"implied_prob": 0.4494,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.531,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Heart of Midlothian",
"home": "Falkirk"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.106172,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.209,
"implied_prob": 0.4238,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.508,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4761,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5403,
"raw_edge_display": "+6.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0968,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+9.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556641,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-15T18:41:14.656411+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Premiership Scotland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 2 | Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | St Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 7 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 |
| 3 | Dundee | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 | St Johnstone | 7 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 7 | Rangers | 7 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 7 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 7 | 11.1 | 1.9 | +9.2 | 18 |
| 2 | Heart of Midlothian | 7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | +2.6 | 13 |
| 3 | Motherwell | 7 | 7.2 | 4.8 | +2.4 | 8 |
| 4 | St Mirren | 7 | 6.2 | 4.7 | +1.5 | 10 |
| 5 | Rangers | 7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | +1.5 | 16 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 6.7 | 5.6 | +1.1 | 8 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 7 | 7.8 | 7.3 | +0.5 | 7 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 6.9 | 8.3 | -1.4 | 8 |
| 9 | Aberdeen FC | 7 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 8 |
| 10 | Dundee | 7 | 5.6 | 8.7 | -3.1 | 10 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1.7 | 5.3 | -3.6 | 6 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 3.1 | 11.9 | -8.8 | 5 |
