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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Kauno Žalgiris II Kauno Žalgiris II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.25
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Kauno Žalgiris II win · Kauno Žalgiris II 3–2 FK Garliava
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Kauno \u017dalgiris II or draw",
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"winner_name": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II"
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"away_xg": 1.26,
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{
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],
"pick_key": "12",
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 15:57:45",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
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{
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{
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{
"label": "2-1",
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{
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}
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.4,
"text": "+2.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1225,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.2,
"text": "-12.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0237,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 5218.96,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0925,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.2,
"text": "-9.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0644,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.4,
"text": "-6.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"sort_key": 1783.9,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"alert_team": "FK Garliava",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.24,
"hero_label": "FK Garliava",
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"market_team": "FK Garliava",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kauno \u017dalgiris II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kauno \u017dalgiris II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0925,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.24,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.24,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"steam_team": "FK Garliava",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kauno \u017dalgiris II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kauno \u017dalgiris II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0925,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kauno \u017dalgiris II 1.34 xG vs FK Garliava 1.26 \u2192 Kauno \u017dalgiris II 37.1%",
"Market: FK Garliava ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: FK Garliava odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kauno \u017dalgiris II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"market_prob": 35.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.63,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.24,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "FK Garliava",
"market_prob": 39.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.51,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 53.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.45,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.45,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FK Garliava",
"market_prob_pct": 39.55,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "FK Garliava"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FK Garliava\u0027s win probability at 39.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.24,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 92,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kauno \u017dalgiris II 1.34 xG vs FK Garliava 1.26 \u2192 Kauno \u017dalgiris II 37.1%",
"Market: FK Garliava ~35.5% implied",
"Market Drift: FK Garliava odds \u2191 +9.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Kauno \u017dalgiris II with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.24,
"hero_label": "FK Garliava",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "FK Garliava odds lengthened \u2191 +9.8%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FK Garliava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FK Garliava.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FK Garliava. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FK Garliava."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FK Garliava above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on FK Garliava (\u2191 +9.8%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.24,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FK Garliava",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices FK Garliava higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.61,
"edge_pp": 1.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"market_prob_pct": 35.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.63,
"edge_pp": 4.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.0,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.24,
"edge_pp": -6.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FK Garliava",
"market_prob_pct": 39.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on FK Garliava.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK Garliava (35.5%).",
"FK Garliava odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.8%, 4/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kauno \u017dalgiris II, Market \u2192 FK Garliava, while FK Garliava odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +27.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 27.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on FK Garliava (9.8%, 4/7) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.25",
"2.15",
"2.05"
],
"display": "2.47 \u2192 1.80 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 15m",
"pick_team": "FK Garliava",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.47"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.05,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.05"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.05,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "FK Garliava",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "FK Garliava",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/7",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"open_odds": 2.05,
"pick_team": "FK Garliava",
"steam_score": 47,
"steam_team_name": "FK Garliava",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "garliava",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "FK Garliava",
"away_team_id": 16674,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16674.webp",
"away_team_name": "FK Garliava",
"away_team_public_id": "4gkJCtZYqAxc3n",
"away_team_slug": "garliava",
"country_code": "LT",
"country_display_name": "Lithuania",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/lt.svg",
"country_id": 96,
"country_name": "Lithuania",
"fixture_id": 1556458,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Lithuania",
"home_team_display_name": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"home_team_id": 13971,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13971.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"home_team_public_id": "5LP18mCwQPJJYn",
"home_team_slug": "kauno-zalgiris-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kauno-zalgiris-ii",
"league_country": "Lithuania",
"league_country_display": "Lithuania",
"league_display_name": "1 Lyga Lithuania",
"league_id": 361,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/361.webp",
"league_name": "1 Lyga Lithuania",
"league_public_id": "3MZncxTFU2sOCU",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 16:00:00",
"public_id": "0s7VUSPU6fr7TH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4081,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.3955,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3955,
"draw": 0.25,
"home": 0.3545
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3702
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2793,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0644,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3955,
"draw": 0.25,
"home": 0.3545
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2628
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4392,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3955,
"draw": 0.25,
"home": 0.3545
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3616
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": -0.111,
"ev": -0.2497,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": 0.0537,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.3984,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1704,
"alpha_yes": 0.2343,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.61,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0345,
"edge_yes": -0.0345,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0237,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0637,
"ev_yes": -0.1225,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0903,
"implied_no": 0.4205,
"implied_yes": 0.5795,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1704,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4256
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.5805,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5722
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.4256,
"p_final_yes": 0.5722,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2279,
"alpha_under": 0.2072,
"best_over_odd": 1.75,
"best_under_odd": 2.1,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.71,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.965,
"edge_over": -0.0551,
"edge_under": 0.0551,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1565,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1062,
"ev_under": 0.0878,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0642,
"implied_over": 0.5371,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5347,
"implied_under": 0.4629,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4653,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2279,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5347,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5227
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4762
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5227,
"p_final_under": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 6.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0878,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0878,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kauno \u017dalgiris II at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kauno \u017dalgiris II as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.6,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Kauno \u017dalgiris II).",
"Decision strength: 5.4/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0925,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.007,
"ev": -0.0925,
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1704,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.006,
"market_prob": 0.4195,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1704,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.006,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.4195,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4256
},
"p_final": 0.4256,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0637,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2343,
"best_odd": 1.59,
"edge": -0.0083,
"ev": -0.0903,
"implied_prob": 0.5805,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5722
}
},
"edge": 0.0345,
"ev": 0.0237,
"implied_prob": 0.4205,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.965,
"edge": 0.0109,
"market_prob": 0.4653,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2279,
"best_odd": 1.71,
"edge": -0.012,
"ev": -0.1062,
"implied_prob": 0.5347,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5227
},
"p_final": 0.4762,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0642,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2072,
"best_odd": 1.965,
"edge": 0.0109,
"ev": -0.0642,
"implied_prob": 0.4653,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4762
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0551,
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1556458,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0878,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FK Garliava",
"home": "Kauno \u017dalgiris II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031836,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0878,
"implied_prob": 0.4629,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0925,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.39840637450199207,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.07,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1556458,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T15:57:47.441115+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Kauno Žalgiris II & FK Garliava!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
1 Lyga Lithuania — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 24 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 64 |
| 2 | FK Babrungas | 25 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 50 |
| 4 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 44 |
| 5 | Tauras | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 6 | Žalgiris II | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 7 | BFA Vilnius | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | FK Dainava | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 40 |
| 9 | FK Atmosfera | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30 |
| 10 | Jonava | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 |
| 11 | FK Garliava | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 12 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 24 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 22 |
| 13 | Hegelmann Litauen II | 25 | 7 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 14 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 21 |
| 15 | FA Šiauliai II | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 17 |
| 16 | FK Ekranas | 25 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minija | 24 | 63 | 13 | +50 | 64 |
| 2 | FK Babrungas | 25 | 43 | 11 | +32 | 61 |
| 3 | Be1 NFA | 24 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 50 |
| 4 | Tauras | 25 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 43 |
| 5 | BFA Vilnius | 25 | 39 | 35 | +4 | 43 |
| 6 | Žalgiris II | 25 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 43 |
| 7 | FK Atmosfera | 24 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 30 |
| 8 | FK Dainava | 24 | 34 | 23 | +11 | 40 |
| 9 | Neptūną Klaipėda | 25 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 44 |
| 10 | Hegelmann Litauen II | 25 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 22 |
| 11 | Transinvest 2 | 25 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 21 |
| 12 | Jonava | 25 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 27 |
| 13 | FK Garliava | 24 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 22 |
| 14 | FA Šiauliai II | 25 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 17 |
| 15 | FK Ekranas | 25 | 25 | 58 | -33 | 14 |
| 16 | Kauno Žalgiris II | 24 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 22 |
