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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona Maccabi Haifa ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-4 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.84
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Maccabi Haifa win · Ironi Kiryat Shmona 0–4 Maccabi Haifa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"content_hash": "42476d901b615d76cbc04f3186e4580e4e424fce8bb343dc7a6ee0be7ff514c0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.12,
"away_win_prob": 0.3222,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.512,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.488,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3163,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.1,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.16,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"home_win_prob": 0.3615,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.409,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.591
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Maccabi Haifa",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Maccabi Haifa"
},
"away_xg": 1.12,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1299,
"edge_gap": 0.0384,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2311,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.3,
"draw": 31.6,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.11
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.11,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.33,
"market_odds": 4.11,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 5.3,
"prob_edge": 11.8,
"value_pct": 48.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 3,
"away_score_rate": 67.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 1,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 3,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 51.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.12,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Draw",
"prob": 67.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Haifa",
"prob": 68.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maccabi Haifa",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona or Maccabi Haifa",
"pick_prob": 68.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.2,
"draw_pct": 31.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.32,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 40.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.32,
"under_prob": 59.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 48.4,
"implied_prob": 24.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.11
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Maccabi Haifa",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 51.62,
"draw": 25.26,
"home": 23.11
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 17:00:26",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 16:30:50",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.11,
"gap_pp": 12.99,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.26,
"gap_pp": 6.38,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.64
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.62,
"gap_pp": -19.37,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.91,
"gap_pp": -17.01,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 40.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.09,
"gap_pp": 17.01,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 59.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 4.11,
"early": 4.11,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.11,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.76,
"early": 3.76,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.26,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.26,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.84,
"early": 1.84,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.62,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.91,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.09,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.09,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 17.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Betano",
"best_odds": 14.0,
"edge": 4.6,
"ev": 65.1,
"label": "1-0",
"probability": 11.8
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.9,
"ev": -0.0628,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.1,
"market_prob": 0.1408,
"market_prob_pct": 14.1,
"model_prob": 0.132,
"model_prob_pct": 13.2,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"edge_pp": 4.5,
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3058,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.5218
},
"p_final": 0.4737,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2766,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0232,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.4737
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.317,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.7,
"text": "-31.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3416,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3416,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 40.9,
"sort_key": 10457.44,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 59.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"edge_pp": 2.5,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"p_final": 0.4362
},
"p_final": 0.4362,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 10.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.152,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0186,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.343,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.488,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2032,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 20.3,
"text": "+20.3%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2094,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.9,
"text": "-20.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2032,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no_prob": 51.2,
"sort_key": 10182.88,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 48.8
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0359,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0359,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"sort_key": 10032.31,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.4,
"hero_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"market_team": "Maccabi Haifa",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.4,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.12,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -11.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.2,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.12 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -11%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.20 xG vs Maccabi Haifa 1.12 \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1%",
"Market: Maccabi Haifa ~23.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Kiryat Shmona +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob": 36.15,
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"market_prob": 23.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob": 31.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.26,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob": 32.22,
"label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob": 51.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.26,
"fair_prob": 40.9,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.16,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.26,
"fair_prob": 59.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.84,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.27,
"fair_prob": 48.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 59.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.27,
"fair_prob": 51.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 40.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.22,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.62,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Maccabi Haifa\u0027s win probability at 51.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.2%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 21,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1.20 xG vs Maccabi Haifa 1.12 \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona 36.1%",
"Market: Maccabi Haifa ~23.1% implied",
"Market Steam: Ironi Kiryat Shmona +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but market pricing diverges by 19 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -19.4,
"hero_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Maccabi Haifa more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Maccabi Haifa (pricing gap 19.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"largest_gap_pp": -19.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Maccabi Haifa higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 13.04,
"edge_pp": 13.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"market_prob_pct": 23.11,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.37,
"edge_pp": 6.37,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.26,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.4,
"edge_pp": -19.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.22,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Maccabi Haifa",
"market_prob_pct": 51.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Maccabi Haifa than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Maccabi Haifa (23.1%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ironi Kiryat Shmona, Market \u2192 Maccabi Haifa, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.35,
"closing_odds": 1.84,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.35,
"entry_odds": 1.84,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 3.4,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.4,
"pick_team": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "maccabi-haifa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"away_team_id": 4195,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4195.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maccabi Haifa",
"away_team_public_id": "20E8GnpOLh1O4E",
"away_team_slug": "maccabi-haifa",
"country_code": "IL",
"country_display_name": "Israel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/il.svg",
"country_id": 78,
"country_name": "Israel",
"fixture_id": 1555505,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Israel",
"home_team_display_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"home_team_id": 4510,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4510.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"home_team_public_id": "2S4cr5RQDllIaX",
"home_team_slug": "ironi-kiryat-shmona",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ironi-kiryat-shmona",
"league_country": "Israel",
"league_country_display": "Israel",
"league_display_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027Al",
"league_id": 383,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/383.webp",
"league_name": "Ligat Ha\u0027Al",
"league_public_id": "4qIijuRaW49qA9",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 17:00:00",
"public_id": "2rjfVkn0RA71sG",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kiryat Shmona",
"venue_name": "Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4257,
"best_odd": 1.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0824,
"ev": -0.2018,
"implied_prob": 0.5162,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.3226,
"p_final": 0.4338
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2713,
"best_odd": 3.76,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": 0.015,
"implied_prob": 0.2526,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.3164,
"p_final": 0.2699
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.161,
"best_odd": 4.11,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5162,
"draw": 0.2526,
"home": 0.2311
},
"model_prob": 0.361,
"p_final": 0.252
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.84,
"edge": -0.2209,
"ev": -0.4065,
"implied_prob": 0.5435,
"model_prob": 0.3226
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.76,
"edge": 0.0505,
"ev": 0.1898,
"implied_prob": 0.266,
"model_prob": 0.3164
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.11,
"edge": 0.1177,
"ev": 0.4837,
"implied_prob": 0.2433,
"model_prob": 0.361
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2495,
"alpha_yes": 0.343,
"best_no_odd": 2.35,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1027,
"edge_yes": -0.1027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2032,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0186,
"ev_yes": -0.2094,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1297,
"implied_no": 0.4093,
"implied_yes": 0.5907,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"p_final": 0.4362
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.343,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.488,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"p_final_no": 0.4362,
"p_final_yes": 0.5544,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.3058,
"alpha_under": 0.278,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.27,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.16,
"edge_over": -0.1626,
"edge_under": 0.1626,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.317,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1547,
"ev_under": 0.3416,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0232,
"implied_over": 0.5716,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5714,
"implied_under": 0.4284,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4286,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3058,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.5218
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.4737
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5218,
"p_final_under": 0.4737,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3416,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 19.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3416,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4837,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 21,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ironi Kiryat Shmona as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Ironi Kiryat Shmona \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.51 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +48% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1555505 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.51 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +34.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "21 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +48% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Ironi Kiryat Shmona, but the model still strongly favours Ironi Kiryat Shmona.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -11.1,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.488,
"draw_prob": 0.3164,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.361,
"over_prob": 0.409,
"total_xg": 2.32,
"under_prob": 0.591,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": 0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.361,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"market_prob": 0.411,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2495,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0252,
"ev": -0.0186,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"p_final": 0.4362
},
"p_final": 0.4362,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0186,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.343,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0346,
"ev": -0.1297,
"implied_prob": 0.589,
"model_prob": 0.488,
"p_final": 0.5544
}
},
"edge": 0.1027,
"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"model_prob": 0.512,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"market_prob": 0.4286,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.3058,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0497,
"ev": -0.1547,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.409,
"p_final": 0.5218
},
"p_final": 0.4737,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0232,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.278,
"best_odd": 2.16,
"edge": 0.0451,
"ev": 0.0232,
"implied_prob": 0.4286,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"p_final": 0.4737
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1626,
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"model_prob": 0.591,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1555505,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3416,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3226,
"draw": 0.3164,
"home": 0.361
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2032,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.512,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maccabi Haifa",
"home": "Ironi Kiryat Shmona"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.14132,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3416,
"implied_prob": 0.4284,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.591,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0359,
"consensus_ev_display": "+3.6%",
"consensus_odds": 4.11,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2311,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.361,
"raw_edge_display": "+13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24330900243309,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4837,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+48.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1555505,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T17:00:28.547750+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Ligat Ha'Al — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 |
| 2 | Maccabi Haifa | 5 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 12 |
| 3 | Hapoel Katamon | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 5 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 5 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 5 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Ironi Tiberias | 5 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Beitar Jerusalem | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Maccabi Netanya | 5 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 5 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Hapoel Ramat Gan | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Bnei Sakhnin | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 5 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
