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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Jacuipense Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.55
AI Fair Odds
2.57
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Treze 0–0 Jacuipense
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 39.0%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
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"key": "X2",
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"pick_key": "12",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
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"alert_breadth": "7/11",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.95,
"hero_label": "Treze",
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"market_team": "Treze",
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"model_team": "Jacuipense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"evidence": {
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
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{
"icon": "\u2717",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market strongly disagrees",
"status": "fail"
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{
"icon": "!",
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"status": "caution"
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{
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"stars": 1,
"tier": "not_reliable",
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"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
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{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.4,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
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"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"verdict": {
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Treze 1.22 xG vs Jacuipense 1.38 \u2192 Jacuipense 39.0%",
"Market: Treze ~17.8% implied",
"Steam: Draw \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Jacuipense, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.95,
"fair_prob": 31.48,
"label": "Treze",
"market_prob": 58.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.77,
"fair_prob": 29.54,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.18,
"fair_prob": 38.97,
"label": "Jacuipense",
"market_prob": 17.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
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"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Treze",
"market_prob_pct": 58.43,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
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"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Jacuipense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 17.8,
"model_prob_pct": 39.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Jacuipense, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Treze remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Execution Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Model Value",
"score": 4,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Treze 1.22 xG vs Jacuipense 1.38 \u2192 Jacuipense 39.0%",
"Market: Treze ~17.8% implied",
"Steam: Draw \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Jacuipense, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.95,
"hero_label": "Treze",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 26.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
"max_prob_pct": 39.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Treze",
"market_prob_pct": 58.43,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.77,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.77,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.18,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Jacuipense",
"market_prob_pct": 17.79,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Treze (17.8%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 7/11).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Jacuipense, Market \u2192 Treze, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.52,
"closing_odds": 1.55,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.52,
"entry_odds": 1.55,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_total": 11,
"breadth_display": "7/11",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 55m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Draw (11.1%, 7/11) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.80",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 55m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.81,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,8.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
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{
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{
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{
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},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +11.1% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +11.1% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
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"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
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"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/11",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Draw",
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"steam_team_name": "Draw",
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"current_divergence_pp": 26.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
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},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 7831,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7831.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jacuipense",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
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"goals_away": 0,
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"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 7787,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7787.webp",
"home_team_name": "Treze",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 76,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-28 20:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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"score": 6.5
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"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1365,
"best_odd": 5.09,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"p_final": 0.2068
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"draw": {
"alpha": 0.274,
"best_odd": 3.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.2377,
"model_prob": 0.2954,
"p_final": 0.2535
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3575,
"best_odd": 1.55,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": -0.0963,
"ev": -0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.5843,
"model_prob": 0.3149,
"p_final": 0.488
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},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.1"
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"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0528,
"confidence": 5.0,
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"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
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"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
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"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 5.0
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"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2954,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.16
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0289,
"ev": 0.0528,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jacuipense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1554062,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0528,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3897,
"draw": 0.2954,
"home": 0.3149
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jacuipense",
"home": "Treze"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.022634,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0528,
"implied_prob": 0.1779,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3897,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Jacuipense",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1554062,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-28T20:36:50.951962+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie D Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manauara | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | São Raimundo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional AM | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Manauara | 10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | São Raimundo | 10 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
