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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Lebih 2.5 Lebih 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Deportivo Llacuabamba Lukis ✖ Incorrect
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.26,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "33%",
"percent_draw": "33%",
"percent_home": "33%",
"winner_name": null
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
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"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1047,
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"market": "1X2",
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"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 1.75
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Deportivo Llacuabamba Win",
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"label": "Home",
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"overround": 12.2,
"prob_edge": -16.7,
"value_pct": -29.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"home_played": 0,
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"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba or Draw",
"prob": 69.3
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba or UTC Cajamarca",
"prob": 71.1
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or UTC Cajamarca",
"prob": 59.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba or UTC Cajamarca",
"pick_prob": 71.1
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.7,
"draw_pct": 28.9,
"home_pct": 40.4,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 19.7,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "UTC Cajamarca Win",
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"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "UTC Cajamarca",
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.21,
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"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.88
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.85,
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.66
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.37,
"gap_pp": 0.83,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.63,
"gap_pp": -0.83,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
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"implied_early_pct": 50.93,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.4,
"early": 3.4,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 47.37,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.8,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1082,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.041,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2014,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.1,
"text": "-20.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"max_ev": -0.0281,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4046,
"side_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"sort_key": 1792.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.6,
"text": "-3.6%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0521,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.036,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 1791.0,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 10.5,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.52,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
"market_team": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.52,
"fair_prob": 40.41,
"label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"market_prob": 50.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob": 28.92,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.83,
"fair_prob": 30.68,
"label": "UTC Cajamarca",
"market_prob": 22.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.32,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 47.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.32,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 52.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 50.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 49.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -10.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.41,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"market_prob_pct": 50.93,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Llacuabamba"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 10.52,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 50.9,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Deportivo Llacuabamba, but the market prices them higher (50.9% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -10.52,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Llacuabamba than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Llacuabamba than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Llacuabamba than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Deportivo Llacuabamba more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Deportivo Llacuabamba (pricing gap 10.5 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 10.52,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.7 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.7,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -10.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.41,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"market_prob_pct": 50.93,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.92,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.21,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.68,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "UTC Cajamarca",
"market_prob_pct": 22.85,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Deportivo Llacuabamba than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Deportivo Llacuabamba (50.9%).",
"Both lean Deportivo Llacuabamba, but the market prices them higher (50.9% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.14,
"closing_odds": 1.75,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.14,
"entry_odds": 1.75,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/8",
"current_odds": 1.75,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"steam_score": 2,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 10.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2539,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2539.webp",
"away_team_name": "UTC Cajamarca",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1553047,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_id": 10014,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/10014.webp",
"home_team_name": "Deportivo Llacuabamba",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_id": 1232,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1232.webp",
"league_name": "Copa De La Liga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-15 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Estadio Municipal de Huamachuco"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2649,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0207,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.2285,
"model_prob": 0.3066,
"p_final": 0.2492
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 3.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0826,
"implied_prob": 0.2621,
"model_prob": 0.2888,
"p_final": 0.2698
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5058,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.2014,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"model_prob": 0.4046,
"p_final": 0.4564
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.96,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"edge_no": -0.0388,
"edge_yes": 0.0388,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1082,
"ev_yes": 0.041,
"implied_no": 0.4938,
"implied_yes": 0.5062,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.83,
"edge_over": 0.0032,
"edge_under": -0.0032,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.036,
"ev_under": -0.0521,
"implied_over": 0.4788,
"implied_under": 0.5212,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.041,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2888,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4046,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.041,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.053,
"ev": -0.2014,
"implied_prob": 0.5093,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4046,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Deportivo Llacuabamba"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0388,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.5062,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.4788,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1553047,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.041,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3066,
"draw": 0.2888,
"home": 0.4046
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "UTC Cajamarca",
"home": "Deportivo Llacuabamba"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553047,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-15T18:25:21.555369+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
- Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
- Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
- Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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