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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Tacna Heroica Tacna Heroica ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-2 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.22
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Tacna Heroica win · Tacna Heroica 3–2 FBC Melgar
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "No predictions available",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"edge": 0.0362,
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"market": "1X2",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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"pick_key": "12",
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
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"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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{
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{
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{
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
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},
"home_xg": 1.32,
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"ev_over": -0.0601,
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "lean",
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{
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"ev_yes": -0.019,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "bad_ev",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0681,
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"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
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"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
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"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +31.0%",
"alert_team": "Tacna Heroica",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.83,
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"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"market_team": "FBC Melgar",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Tacna Heroica",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Tacna Heroica",
"market_prob": 32.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.19,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.46,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.83,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "FBC Melgar",
"market_prob": 40.07,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.36,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": 1.36,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.04,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.04,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "FBC Melgar",
"market_prob_pct": 40.07,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Tacna Heroica"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.83,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Tacna Heroica",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 32.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Tacna Heroica, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and FBC Melgar remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.83,
"hero_label": "FBC Melgar",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Tacna Heroica odds lengthened \u2191 +31.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Tacna Heroica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FBC Melgar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FBC Melgar. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Tacna Heroica has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FBC Melgar above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Tacna Heroica has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.83,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Tacna Heroica",
"market_prob_pct": 32.47,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.46,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FBC Melgar",
"market_prob_pct": 40.07,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Tacna Heroica \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FBC Melgar (32.5%).",
"However, Tacna Heroica has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +31.0%, 6/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Tacna Heroica, Market \u2192 FBC Melgar, Recent sharp money \u2192 Tacna Heroica.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 45.05,
"closing_odds": 2.22,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 45.05,
"entry_odds": 2.22,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 31.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Tacna Heroica (31.0%, 6/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.85 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 19h 59m",
"pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.85"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.75"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Tacna Heroica \u2191 +31.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Tacna Heroica \u2191 +31.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 2.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Tacna Heroica",
"steam_score": 79,
"steam_team_name": "Tacna Heroica",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2554,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2554.webp",
"away_team_name": "FBC Melgar",
"country_code": "PE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pe.svg",
"country_name": "Peru",
"fixture_id": 1553037,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Peru",
"home_team_id": 26350,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/26350.webp",
"home_team_name": "Tacna Heroica",
"league_country": "Peru",
"league_id": 1232,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1232.webp",
"league_name": "Copa De La Liga Peru",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 20:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tacna",
"venue_name": "Estadio Jorge Basadre"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.22,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1635,
"implied_prob": 0.4007,
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.3768
},
"draw": {
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"best_odd": 3.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0064,
"ev": -0.0896,
"implied_prob": 0.2746,
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.281
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"best_odd": 2.74,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3401
}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": -0.0004,
"edge_yes": 0.0004,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0218,
"ev_yes": -0.019,
"implied_no": 0.4554,
"implied_yes": 0.5446,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.95,
"best_under_odd": 1.98,
"edge_over": -0.0136,
"edge_under": 0.0136,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0601,
"ev_under": 0.0256,
"implied_over": 0.4956,
"implied_under": 0.5044,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0256,
"confidence": 4.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0256,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "under",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.3247,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Tacna Heroica"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.0004,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.5446,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0136,
"ev": 0.0256,
"implied_prob": 0.5044,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1553037,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": false,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"max_valid_ev": 0.0256,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "FBC Melgar",
"home": "Tacna Heroica"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1553037,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T20:29:04.256855+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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