Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Necaxa Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-3 ✖ tak betul
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Pachuca 3–3 Necaxa
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "08d6f566296501d1ae37e1e23d7bfacade25476f9a6db27362a8e9118fe07853",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.3707,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.502,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3122,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.2,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.15,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.13,
"home_win_prob": 0.3171,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.422,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.578
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Pachuca or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Pachuca"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Necaxa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1664,
"edge_gap": 0.0529,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2039,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.0,
"draw": 31.2,
"home": 31.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 5.25
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 4.85
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 4.8
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 4.75
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.62
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 4.5
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 4.49
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"odd": 4.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.25,
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"display_market": "Necaxa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.9,
"market_odds": 4.56,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 7.5,
"prob_edge": 18.0,
"value_pct": 94.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 67.7,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.13,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pachuca or Draw",
"prob": 62.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pachuca or Necaxa",
"prob": 68.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Necaxa",
"prob": 68.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Pachuca or Necaxa",
"pick_prob": 68.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.1,
"draw_pct": 31.2,
"home_pct": 31.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Necaxa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.37,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.37,
"under_prob": 57.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"edge": 94.8,
"implied_prob": 19.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Necaxa Win",
"model_prob": 37.1,
"odds": 5.25
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"best_odds": 17.0,
"edge": 5.7,
"ev": 97.1,
"label": "0-1",
"probability": 11.6
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.4,
"ev": 0.0349,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.9,
"market_prob": 0.1266,
"market_prob_pct": 12.7,
"model_prob": 0.131,
"model_prob_pct": 13.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.13,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0603,
"edge_pp": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.4304,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4497,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.5032
},
"p_final": 0.4908,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2543,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0603,
"ev": 0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.4908
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2826,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -28.3,
"text": "-28.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3294,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3294,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 42.2,
"sort_key": 10446.46,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0334,
"edge_pp": 3.3,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4642
},
"p_final": 0.4642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0743,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0066,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5159,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5324
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1044,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 10.4,
"text": "+10.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1683,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1044,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 50.2,
"sort_key": 10093.96,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 49.8
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0443,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0443,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.4,
"text": "+4.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6881,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Necaxa",
"sort_key": 10039.87,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"alert_team": "Necaxa",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Necaxa",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Necaxa",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3294,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9438,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 24,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Necaxa at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Necaxa as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Necaxa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Necaxa \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +94% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550991 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "24 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +94% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0443,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2192982456140351,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6881,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "3/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.3,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.0,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.13,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.24,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.13 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"steam_team": "Necaxa",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3294,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9438,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 24,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Necaxa at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Necaxa as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Necaxa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Necaxa \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +94% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550991 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "24 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +94% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0443,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2192982456140351,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6881,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pachuca 1.13 xG vs Necaxa 1.24 \u2192 Necaxa 37.1%",
"Market Drift: Necaxa odds \u2191 +10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Necaxa, but the market has moved away from Necaxa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.71,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 31.22,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.07,
"label": "Necaxa",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.81,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.81,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.94,
"fair_prob": 49.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 56.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.94,
"fair_prob": 50.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 43.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Necaxa",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 16.7,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+16.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 16.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 24,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 5,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Pachuca 1.13 xG vs Necaxa 1.24 \u2192 Necaxa 37.1%",
"Market Drift: Necaxa odds \u2191 +10.5%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Necaxa, but the market has moved away from Necaxa.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Necaxa odds lengthened \u2191 +10.5%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.4 pp (at 37.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.4,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.71,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Pachuca",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Necaxa",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Necaxa (37.1%).",
"Necaxa odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +10.5%, 3/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 19.05,
"entry_odds": 5.25,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 165h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Necaxa (10.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.25",
"5.00",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.25 \u2192 3.98 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 165h 31m",
"pick_team": "Necaxa",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.75,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Necaxa",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Necaxa while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Necaxa",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/10",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"open_odds": 4.75,
"pick_team": "Necaxa",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Necaxa",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "necaxa",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Necaxa",
"away_team_id": 2288,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2288.webp",
"away_team_name": "Necaxa",
"away_team_public_id": "0Inlq9kQc69ViF",
"away_team_slug": "necaxa",
"country_code": "MX",
"country_display_name": "Mexico",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/mx.svg",
"country_id": 107,
"country_name": "Mexico",
"fixture_id": 1550991,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Mexico",
"home_team_display_name": "Pachuca",
"home_team_id": 2292,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2292.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pachuca",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Pachuca",
"home_team_public_id": "3nOEKuwuh9LaMp",
"home_team_slug": "pachuca",
"ht.home_team_slug": "pachuca",
"league_country": "Mexico",
"league_country_display": "Mexico",
"league_display_name": "Liga MX Mexico",
"league_id": 262,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/262.webp",
"league_name": "Liga MX Mexico",
"league_public_id": "1IBdnK76JUhbx1",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-11 23:10:00",
"public_id": "12Mvk8pULmWrcj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Pachuca de Soto",
"venue_name": "Estadio Hidalgo"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1501,
"best_odd": 4.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2041,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.5555
},
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"p_final": 0.229
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2676,
"best_odd": 3.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": 0.005,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2041,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.5555
},
"model_prob": 0.3124,
"p_final": 0.2597
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3857,
"best_odd": 1.675,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0918,
"ev": -0.2234,
"implied_prob": 0.5555,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2041,
"draw": 0.2404,
"home": 0.5555
},
"model_prob": 0.3174,
"p_final": 0.4637
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.25,
"edge": 0.1798,
"ev": 0.9438,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"model_prob": 0.3702
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.13,
"edge": 0.0703,
"ev": 0.2902,
"implied_prob": 0.2421,
"model_prob": 0.3124
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.75,
"edge": -0.2541,
"ev": -0.4446,
"implied_prob": 0.5714,
"model_prob": 0.3174
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.469,
"alpha_yes": 0.5159,
"best_no_odd": 2.2,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0694,
"edge_yes": -0.0694,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1044,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0066,
"ev_yes": -0.1683,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1374,
"implied_no": 0.4326,
"implied_yes": 0.5674,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4642
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5159,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5324
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4642,
"p_final_yes": 0.5324,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4497,
"alpha_under": 0.4088,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.17,
"edge_over": -0.1481,
"edge_under": 0.1481,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2826,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1747,
"ev_under": 0.3294,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.065,
"implied_over": 0.5701,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5696,
"implied_under": 0.4299,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4304,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4497,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.5032
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0603,
"ev": 0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.4908
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5032,
"p_final_under": 0.4908,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3294,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9438,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3294,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 16.6,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3294,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9438,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 24,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Necaxa at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Necaxa as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Necaxa",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Necaxa \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +94% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1550991 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +32.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "24 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +94% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Necaxa, but the model still strongly favours Necaxa.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0443,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2192982456140351,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6881,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.498,
"draw_prob": 0.3124,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3702,
"over_prob": 0.422,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"under_prob": 0.578,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0443,
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Necaxa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0334,
"market_prob": 0.4309,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.469,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": -0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.4309,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"p_final": 0.4642
},
"p_final": 0.4642,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0066,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5159,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.0367,
"ev": -0.1374,
"implied_prob": 0.5691,
"model_prob": 0.498,
"p_final": 0.5324
}
},
"edge": 0.0694,
"ev": 0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"model_prob": 0.502,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0603,
"market_prob": 0.4304,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4497,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0664,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.5696,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.5032
},
"p_final": 0.4908,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4088,
"best_odd": 2.17,
"edge": 0.0603,
"ev": 0.065,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.4908
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1481,
"ev": 0.3294,
"implied_prob": 0.4299,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1550991,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3294,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3702,
"draw": 0.3124,
"home": 0.3174
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.4326,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.502,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Necaxa",
"home": "Pachuca"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.117282,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3294,
"implied_prob": 0.4299,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.578,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0443,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.4%",
"consensus_odds": 4.56,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2041,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"raw_edge_display": "+16.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 16.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2192982456140351,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6881,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+68.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1550991,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-11T08:01:47.704586+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Pachuca & Necaxa!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Liga MX Mexico — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 2 | Club América | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Puebla | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 20 |
| 2 | Club América | 9 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 20 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 18 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 6 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 12 |
| 8 | Leon | 10 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 9 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Necaxa | 10 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 3 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 14.1 | 8.8 | +5.3 | 16 |
| 2 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | +4.9 | 14 |
| 3 | Club América | 9 | 11.0 | 6.5 | +4.5 | 20 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 11.5 | 8.6 | +2.9 | 10 |
| 5 | Guadalajara Chivas | 10 | 10.2 | 7.5 | +2.7 | 18 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | +2.7 | 13 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 10 | 10.0 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 8 |
| 8 | Toluca | 10 | 10.2 | 7.9 | +2.3 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 12.6 | 10.4 | +2.2 | 10 |
| 10 | Club Querétaro | 9 | 10.2 | 9.6 | +0.6 | 17 |
| 11 | Leon | 10 | 10.6 | 10.1 | +0.5 | 17 |
| 12 | Puebla | 10 | 8.0 | 10.8 | -2.8 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlas | 10 | 8.4 | 11.6 | -3.2 | 17 |
| 14 | UNAM Pumas | 10 | 7.7 | 10.9 | -3.2 | 12 |
| 15 | Pachuca | 10 | 8.5 | 12.5 | -4.0 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 10 | 7.1 | 11.8 | -4.7 | 11 |
| 17 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 8.6 | 13.6 | -5.0 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 10 | 6.0 | 14.7 | -8.7 | 3 |
