Colón vs Fénix Statistics & Analysis

Jun 13, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.41
1 1.19
xG Accuracy: 85%
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Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Colón Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Betul

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 04:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2491570

Closing Odds 3.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Colón 1–1 Fénix
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Intelijen pasaran

Bacaan selepas pilihan utama: bagaimana suapan penutup berprioriti bergerak berbanding model.

Ringkasan pasaran

Pasaran kekal stabil menjelang sepakan. Tiada anjakan implied ketara antara PRE30 dan PRE1 pada snapshot berprioriti.

Walaupun pergerakan lewat kecil, model masih menilai Colón (1X2),Lebih 2.5 gol jauh melebihi implied snapshot penutupan — bacaan statik "model vs harga", bukan kejaran steam.

Model masih melebihi implied penutupan pada Lebih 2.5 gol kira-kira 10.7 mata peratus — isyarat salah harga paling jelas pada halaman ini.

Model vs implied penutup

Pasaran Model % Implied penutup % Jurang (pp)
Colón (1X2) 36.9 28.6 +8.2
Lukis (1X2) 30.3 32.2 -1.9
Fénix (1X2) 32.8 39.2 -6.4
Lebih 2.5 gol 48.2 37.5 +10.7
Bawah 2.5 gol 51.8 62.5 -10.7
Apa maksudnya

Secara ringkas: model kira-kira 48.2% pada Lebih 2.5 gol, manakala snapshot penutup menunjukkan kira-kira 37.5%. Bezanya — kira-kira 10.7 mata peratus — ialah jurang model-vs-pasaran terbesar yang ditonjolkan di halaman ini.

Ringkas: "implied penutup" ialah kebarangkalian terbit daripada odds akhir yang ditangkap (selepas de-vig ringkas). "Jurang (pp)" = peratus model tolak implied tersebut, dalam mata peratus (pp).

Pergerakan garisan menjelang sepakan mula

Satu buku prioriti setiap snapshot (bukan semua). Laluan tangkapan: PRE30 → PRE1 · Buku: Pinnacle

Dalam kurungan pada lajur: Penutup = snapshot pertama tersedia ikut PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Awal = pertama dalam PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 yang berbeza daripada Penutup.

Odds terperinci dilipat di bawah — pergerakan implied (de-vig) boleh diabaikan.

Lihat jadual penuh baris demi baris
Pasaran Awal (PRE30) Penutup (PRE1) Δ tersirat (pp)
Colón (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Lukis (1X2) 2.85 2.85 0.0
Fénix (1X2) 2.34 2.34 0.0
Lebih 2.5 gol 2.48 2.48 0.0
Bawah 2.5 gol 1.49 1.49 0.0

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON
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    ],
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      "betting_signal": {
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        "alert_breadth_note": "10/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +3.6%",
        "alert_team": "Col\u00f3n",
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        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 32.17,
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 39.18,
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "edge_pp": 9.51,
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -9.51,
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          "market_prob": 61.31,
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        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.2,
          "fair_prob": 54.2,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 46.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.2,
          "fair_prob": 45.8,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 54.0,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 8.21,
        "fair_prob_pct": 36.86,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
        "market_prob_pct": 28.65,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 8.21,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Col\u00f3n",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 28.6,
          "model_prob_pct": 36.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Col\u00f3n, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and F\u00e9nix remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 8.21,
        "hero_label": "Col\u00f3n",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Col\u00f3n odds lengthened \u2191 +3.6%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Col\u00f3n.",
            "Recent line movement on Col\u00f3n (\u2191 +3.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (10/12) supports the current market view on Col\u00f3n."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 8.21,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.0 pp (at 36.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 4.0,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 8.21,
            "fair_prob_pct": 36.86,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Col\u00f3n",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.65,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 30.31,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.17,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -6.34,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.84,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "F\u00e9nix",
            "market_prob_pct": 39.18,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Col\u00f3n.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers F\u00e9nix (28.6%).",
          "Col\u00f3n has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +3.6%, 10/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Col\u00f3n, Market \u2192 F\u00e9nix, Recent sharp money \u2192 Col\u00f3n.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 31.25,
        "closing_odds": 3.2,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
        "entry_odds": 3.2,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.9,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
        "move_pct_abs": 3.6,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Pinnacle led repricing on Col\u00f3n (3.6%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.26 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.90",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.26"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.90"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,13.5",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.8,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/12 sportsbooks on Col\u00f3n",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/12",
        "current_odds": 2.9,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +3.6%",
        "open_odds": 2.8,
        "pick_team": "Col\u00f3n",
        "steam_score": 44,
        "steam_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2357,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2357.webp",
      "away_team_name": "F\u00e9nix",
      "country_code": "UY",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/uy.svg",
      "country_name": "Uruguay",
      "fixture_id": 1550639,
      "goals_away": 1,
      "goals_home": 0,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Uruguay",
      "home_team_id": 15628,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/15628.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Col\u00f3n",
      "league_country": "Uruguay",
      "league_id": 269,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/269.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
          "pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
        ],
        "score": 5.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4069,
            "best_odd": 2.34,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.026,
            "ev": -0.144,
            "implied_prob": 0.3918,
            "model_prob": 0.3279,
            "p_final": 0.3658
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4374,
            "best_odd": 2.85,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0081,
            "ev": -0.1064,
            "implied_prob": 0.3217,
            "model_prob": 0.3031,
            "p_final": 0.3135
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2629,
            "best_odd": 3.2,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0217,
            "ev": -0.0138,
            "implied_prob": 0.2865,
            "model_prob": 0.369,
            "p_final": 0.3082
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.73,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.05,
          "edge_no": -0.082,
          "edge_yes": 0.082,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2077,
          "ev_yes": 0.1111,
          "implied_no": 0.54,
          "implied_yes": 0.46,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.48,
          "best_under_odd": 1.55,
          "edge_over": 0.0951,
          "edge_under": -0.0951,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.1954,
          "ev_under": -0.1971,
          "implied_over": 0.3869,
          "implied_under": 0.6131,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1954,
      "confidence": 6.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.3031,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.369,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.22
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0217,
          "ev": -0.0138,
          "implied_prob": 0.2865,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.369,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Col\u00f3n"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.082,
          "ev": 0.1111,
          "implied_prob": 0.46,
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0951,
          "ev": 0.1954,
          "implied_prob": 0.3869,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1550639,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1954,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3279,
        "draw": 0.3031,
        "home": 0.369
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1111,
        "implied_prob": 0.46,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.542,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1111,
          "implied_prob": 0.46,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "F\u00e9nix",
        "home": "Col\u00f3n"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.065928,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1954,
        "implied_prob": 0.3869,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1550639,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:58:09.004966+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Segunda División Segunda División — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Oriental 6 4 1 1 13
2 Plaza Colonia 6 3 3 0 12
3 Fénix 6 3 2 1 11
4 Sportivo Huracán 6 2 4 0 10
5 Colón 6 2 3 1 9
6 Uruguay Montevideo 6 2 3 1 9
7 Rentistas 6 2 3 1 9
8 Cerrito 6 2 3 1 9
9 La Luz 6 1 4 1 7
10 Miramar 6 1 2 3 5
11 Paysandú 6 1 1 4 4
12 Atenas 6 1 1 4 4
13 CA River Plate 6 1 1 4 4
14 Tacuarembó 6 0 3 3 3
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Fénix 6 13 7 +6 11
2 Plaza Colonia 6 9 2 +7 12
3 Sportivo Huracán 6 9 6 +3 10
4 Oriental 6 8 5 +3 13
5 Colón 6 8 5 +3 9
6 Cerrito 6 8 8 0 9
7 Uruguay Montevideo 6 7 5 +2 9
8 Rentistas 6 6 5 +1 9
9 CA River Plate 6 6 13 -7 4
10 La Luz 6 5 6 -1 7
11 Tacuarembó 6 5 9 -4 3
12 Atenas 6 5 11 -6 4
13 Paysandú 6 4 7 -3 4
14 Miramar 6 3 7 -4 5